One of the things you hear daily fantasy players talk about a lot is “the process.” It’s important to focus on developing a quality routine that will lead to being profitable and then emphasize that process over results. You can do everything right and still lose; that’s just the nature of sports and daily fantasy. Sometimes things just don’t work out. You can also do everything wrong and still win.
It is indeed smart to emphasize good process over results, but only in the short-term. Over the course of a night, a week, and even a month, there’s a good amount of variance in daily fantasy results. That’s especially true if you’re a GPP player, and even more so in a volatile sport like baseball. On a night-to-night basis, you’re going to be in trouble if you’re judging the quality of your decisions on your results.
However, we need to be careful not to extend this idea over too long of a timeframe. Having a losing month is fine, but if you’re continually losing over the course of a few months, there’s a good chance you should reassess your process. Results are mostly noise over small samples, but mostly trustworthy over large samples. It’s really important to always test and refine everything you do, assuming you’re looking at long-term results.
Thus, while it is indeed important to be process-oriented, it’s even more important to not think your process is infallible.
Brewers/Rockies Combo Stack
I proposed a combination of mini stacks earlier this week with the Astros and Rockies, and I think tonight is another good night to pull it off. When there’s a game played at Coors Field, the ownership rates on both teams are ridiculously high. However, almost all of those lineups are five or six-man stacks of a single team.
The idea here is to give up a little bit of the upside of a six-man stack in favor of a somewhat unique lineup. We’re stacking the game as opposed to a single team. I particularly like the Brewers’ righty bats—many of whom crush lefties—and Colorado’s lefties.
NY Yankees (vs Justin Verlander)
I really doubt we’re going to see heavy ownership on the Yanks tonight because there are so many other quality options to stack: Milwaukee, Colorado, and Toronto chief among them. The Yanks have home run and stolen base upside, and they’re facing a righty who is just scary enough to really reduce their usage. Even in the moderate matchup, Vegas opened the Yankees at 4.5 implied runs. It is going to be 80 degrees with a light wind blowing out to right field when this game begins.
1B/3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati (vs Dan Haren) – $5200
One of the things I like to do to find contrarian values is look at the offenses I know will be stacked heavily to determine which positions will see a lot of overlap. I think third base is going to be accounted for very heavily with Milwaukee (Ramirez), Colorado (Arenado/LeMahieu), and Toronto (Donaldson) stacks. That means we should see reduced ownership on other third basemen, and Frazier is one of my favorites. He has doubled his salary-based expected points in 34 percent of games this year—an insane mark that’s over twice the league average.
OF David Peralta, Arizona (vs James Shields) – $3500
I really like Arizona as a contrarian stack tonight in addition to those I listed. I’d prefer they be facing a lefty because Goldschmidt and Pollock crush southpaws, but Peralta does the same to righties with a .210 running 12-month ISO. The opposing pitcher is going to scare away most daily fantasy players, but Vegas has the D-Backs projected higher than almost everyone at 4.6 implied runs. I think there’s a good chance we see a few long-balls in this park tonight. Note that Peralta’s spot in the order will determine his value, but I expect him to move back up a bit against a righty.
1B Adam LaRoche, Chicago White Sox (vs Colby Lewis) – $3400
LaRoche won’t be highly owned given all of the options at his position, including Jose Abreu on his own team. However, he has a .211 ISO against righties over the past year, which is 81 points higher than his ISO against lefties. This is a big discount on a player with power who will be in few lineups. The wind is projected to be blowing out toward right field at 11mph when this game begins.
P Tyler Lyons, St. Louis (vs Philadelphia) – $6800
I don’t think Lyons is a contrarian option by any means, but I do think most people are going to be on Sale, deGrom, Gray, and Carrasco. Meanwhile, Lyons is facing a Philly offense that can strike out a ton against lefties, yet he costs just $6800. Vegas has the Phils projected at only 3.4 implied runs. This is the perfect arm to use if you’re looking to go big on bats.