This is going to be a really tough slate to find solid pitching. Here are my top ten (more like top three) pitchers for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Top 5 Pitchers
1) Zack Greinke – ARZ vs LAD – $11,200 – I suppose this is the best we’re going to do here tonight. I’m not thrilled with this matchup, as I worry a bit about Greinke and his numbers at home, but I think this is about as good as it gets. Overall, the Dodgers aren’t hitting well at all and against righties is no different. Coming into this game, the Dodgers own a .300 wOBA with a .376 SLG and a .311 OBP. When we expand these numbers even more from when they’re on the road, it doesn’t get much better. The Dodgers own a .302 wOBA with a .379 SLG and a .315 OBP. With Greinke pitching much better as the season progresses, he’s the safest option on this slate.
2) Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. KCR – $10,800 – – I have Carrasco in the number two spot, and I’m not even that big a fan of this matchup. Tough sledding on this slate. The Royals are struggling at the plate lately, which has me liking this a bit more than I normally would. Overall though, it’s not a great spot for Carrasco. Against righties, the Royals only own a .310 wOBA with a .398 SLG and a .317 OBP. That’s great and all, but it’s the lack of strikeouts that really kills the scores for pitchers. With a 19.8 K%, which ranks 18th in the league, Carrasco might be struggling to obtain a high score here even if he pitches well. He certainly possesses the talent, it’s just all contingent on if he can grab some strikeouts or not.
“Hendricks has faced this Nationals team already this season, going six innings and not allowing any runs”
3) Kyle Hendricks – CHC vs. WAS – $9,400 – – Make no mistake about it; Hendricks has pitched extremely well this season. Coming into this start, Hendricks owns a 2.90 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP while averaging 16.8 FPPG. If you feel like that 16.8 FPPG feels a bit low for someone with those types of numbers, you’re right. Averaging only a 7.5 K/9 this season, Hendricks has been much better at home than he has on the road. With that being said, Hendricks has faced this Nationals team already this season, going six innings – not allowing any runs on two hits with a 4:2 K:BB ratio for 22.5 points. If he can manage something somewhat close to that performance tonight, he would be well worth his salary of $9,400. He’s certainly not the worst on the list tonight, but he doesn’t have the greatest matchup either. Welcome to the June 13th slate.
4) Max Scherzer – WAS vs. CHC – $12,200 – The problem with this start is that Scherzer is going to have to face a few lefties tonight and that’s what has really been giving him trouble. Owning a .382 wOBA against them, Scherzer has to deal with Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist; so basically, the heart of their lineup. Against righties, Scherzer is fantastic, holding them to a .198 wOBA. This is a tough matchup for him, and I hate his price tag, but again, he always has the potential to pitch a gem.
5) R.A. Dickey – TOR vs. PHI – $7,400 – – Man, we’re only on the fifth pitcher on this list and I feel like I’m reaching already. Dickey does have a good matchup against the light hitting Phillies tonight, but his home splits have me worried a bit. At Rogers Centre this season, Dickey owns a 5.55 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and seven of his 10 home runs allowed have come from here. Nonetheless, we can’t deny how poorly the Phillies are hitting with their 28th ranked .286 wOBA with a .287 OBP. I wouldn’t be expecting a high scoring game from Dickey if you decide to take a flier on him, but he could be somewhere in the mid-teens if all goes well.
6) Matt Boyd – DET vs. CHW – $6,200 – – I mean yeah, this is where we’re at with Matt Boyd as the number six pitcher. Don’t get me wrong; he hasn’t been bad since returning to the Tigers this season, owning a 3.38 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in three starts thus far. He doesn’t have the toughest start going up against the White Sox in Chicago tonight, but Boyd doesn’t bring us much upside either. Boyd hasn’t made it past the sixth inning yet this season, and his strikeouts fluctuate, going as high as seven against the A’s all the way down to two against the Indians. Honestly, he may be able to pull off something worthwhile tonight, it’s just hard to gauge where this kid is. Believe me, you can do much worse.
7) Chase Anderson – MIL vs. SFG – $7,700 – – Anderson has looked solid over his last two starts, but I have to take the teams he faced into consideration as well. Going against the Phillies and A’s, Anderson has pitched 12 innings allowing one run on five hits with a 10:0 K:BB ratio. He has a much tougher assignment tonight against the Giants, but AT&T Stadium certainly helps him out a bit. The Giants aren’t exactly killing it at home this season, with a .308 wOBA and a .377 SLG, but Anderson isn’t the most trustworthy pitcher we could pick either. On the road, Anderson owns a 4.68 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with seven home runs allowed
“It’s not ideal, but his matchup isn’t the worst…”
8) Jered Weaver – LAA vs. MIN – $6,700 – – Weaver has been getting whacked around in 2016, and it happened earlier this season against the Twins. In that start, Weaver pitched 4.1 innings allowing four runs on eight hits with a 1:2 K:BB ratio. The only reason I kind of, sort of like Weaver is because he’ll be pitching at home in the cozy LAA Stadium. Weaver has been better at home than on the road, where’s averaging 12.5 FPPG. Again, it’s not ideal, but his matchup isn’t the worst.
#9) Jerad Eickhoff – PHI vs. TOR – $8,700 – – I’m really not a fan of paying almost $9K for a pitcher against the Blue Jays. On the road, Eickhoff has been getting shelled in five starts. In that span, Eickhoff owns a 6.41 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP with five of his nine home runs allowed. Eickhoff has flashed his talents at times this season, but I don’t think he’s worth the shot here at Rogers Centre. If anything, he could be a GPP play in my opinion, but that’s as far as I would go with him.
#10) Wei-Yin Chen – MIA vs. SDP – $8,000 – – Chen is just here to fill in the 10th spot on this list. I like him better than the rest of the pitchers not listed here, but the Padres are hitting lefties extremely well lately, so I won’t be taking Chen.