Happy Friday! A tremendous 14-game slate is upon us today with plenty of options to choose from. There are a couple of sneaky stacky teams in the mix and some sub $3K guys in here as well. With only three of the games having a team total of more than eight runs, we’re going to dig deep to find our targets. Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position.
Let’s get to it!
- Make sure Ruiz is playing, and he’s been batting fifth — has a .402 wOBA vs. LHP and Wei-Yin Chen gives up 1.275 HR/9 IP. Ruiz is also carrying a 40% hard hit factor over his last two weeks.
- Nobody’s mashing harder than Salty behind the plate, with a gaudy 98 mph avg exit velocity last 10 games and a 275 expected power last 30 days (on a 100 is average scale).
- MIL SP Tyler Cravy has a .378 wOBA vs. LH bats, making Barnhart a cheap catcher punt in a popular stack of Reds tonight in tourneys.
- Yankees SP Michael Pineda gives up the long ball, with a 1.618 per 9 IP clip and Yankee Stadium is geared towards homers for lefties. Ortiz has a .425 wOBA against RHP and 223 expected power rating to take advantage.
- Detroit is another stack to consider tonight as their righty bats lineup against LHP Cole Hamels. Cabrera has a .420 wOBA vs. LHP with a 93 mph avg. exit velocity and 40% hard hit rating over his last 10 games.
- Boston starter Rick Porcello also gives up the long ball, with a 1.319 HR/9 IP rate and is also in Yankee Stadium, putting Yankee lefties like Teixeira (.382 wOBA, .275 ISO vs. RHP) on the radar tonight.
- Kinsler rocks a .407 wOBA vs. LHP and 36% hard hit factor over his last 10 games. Kinsler is expected to lead off for the Tigers with a 4.3 expected run total for the team.
- Dietrich has been hitting the ball hard lately with a 218 expected power rating over the last two weeks, 159 over the last 30 days and a .381 WOBA vs. RHP.
- Odor has a tougher matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, but is a problem matchup himself, with his .350 wOBA and .231 ISO against RHP this season.
- Castellanos has obviously been noticed, with his salary at $3.7K, but is a solid play tonight with his .404 wOBA vs. LHP, 179 expected power rating and 94 mph avg exit velocity.
- Arenado is in SF and against Bumgarner, but he’s a sneaky tourney play in the stud hitter in favorable split that’s low owned due to opposing SP. Arenado has hit .939 OPS with 7 home runs in AT&T park in his career and has a homer and a walk in six PAs against MadBum since the beginning of 2015, for what it’s worth.
- David Wright is pummelling LHP, with a .422 wOBA and a .233 ISO against southpaws. Wright has maintained his hot start, with a 211 expected power rating and 95 mph avg exit velocity over his last 10 games.
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- My man, Brad Miller, is emerging after hitting the ball hard early without results. He has a 222 expected power rating over the last month and 45% hard hit factor as well.
- Brandon Crawford is coming on as well, with a 50% hard hit factor over his last 12 games and a matchup that gives him a solid .333 wOBA and .211 ISO against RHP.
- Francisco Liriano is a tough SP, but is less harsh against righties (.295 wOBA) and Diaz has been Pujols-esque for the Cardinals, power wise, with a .486 wOBA, .286 ISO against LHP and a 40% hard hit factor for the season.
- People may have forgotten how much power J.D. Martinez brought last season, but he’s in a great spot against LHP Hamels (.421 wOBA, .315 ISO) and has been emerging again lately (45% hard hit factor over last 12 games).
- Corey Dickerson is a ridiculously too-low $3.1K and has a .393 wOBA and a .312 ISO against RHP and gets emergency starter Cory Rasmus to go up against at home.
- Alex Presley paid off last night at the minimum with a homer, so let’s go back again, if he’s again atop the Brewers lineup, against RHP Tim Adelman with the Brewers carrying a 4.1 expected run total in CIN.
- Taijuan Walker has given up 1.137 HR/9 IP and the Astros have a projected team total of 4.7 runs, so Rasmus and his .242 ISO against RHP, 51% fly ball rate and 172 expected power rating, batting fourth in the lineup at $3.4K is a tremendous play.
- Meanwhile, Astros SP Doug Fister has a .346 reverse split (vs. RH bats), so Nelson Cruz is a prime target at $4.4K and 183 expected power rating over the last week.