Editor’s Note: Cincinnati SP, Jon Moscot has been scratched from his start tonight. John Lamb will start in his place.
Welcome to Tuesday! A superbly superb 14-game slate is upon us today with plenty of options to choose from. Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position. Let’s get to it!
- Castillo has the best expected power on the slate behind the plate tonight (195 on a 100 scale) and a solid matchup in Miami against LHP Juan Nicolino and a 4.5 expected run total.
- Russell Martin has a solid matchup against Martin Perez (.343 wOBA vs. RH bats) and has been better over the last two weeks with a 93 avg. mph exit velocity on his contact.
- Vogt has been batting fifth for Oakland against RHP (Iwakuma tonight) and has turned in solid power numbers so far this season (125 expected power) as well as a solid .331 wOBA against RHP.
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- Park has an awesome 98 mph average exit velocity over his last two weeks and 95 mph overall. He’s also displayed efficiency against RHP, with a .396 wOBA so far this season.
- Belt is expensive, especially for him, but he’s got a strong matchup against RHP Moscot (.359 wOBA against LH bats), a .376 wOBA against RHP, and the Great American Ballpark is a top 10 park for offense.
- Encarnacion will hit soon, it will happen, with a 93 mph avg exit velocity and 50% Hard Hit factor over the last two weeks. Against LHP at home last season, he had a 1000+ OPS, .420 wOBA and .326 ISO.
- LoFo has great splits against LHP (Scott Kazmir tonight), with a .435 wOBA and .319 ISO against said hurlers. Forsythe should be leading off for the Rays, who have an expected total of 4.1 runs.
- Matt Wisler, the ATL RH starter tonight, has a .408 wOBA against LH bats, putting all the Mets lefties on the radar tonight. Walker has a .346 wOBA and .200 ISO against RHP this season.
- Check the lineups to make sure Darwin Barney gets the expected start against LHP Perez. If he does, he has a .467 wOBA and .278 ISO against LHP and batting ninth should be at the top of some rallies for the 5.2 run Jays tonight.
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- Arenado is very interesting at this price point with his .310 ISO against RHP and .383 wOBA. He’s also got a 94/51/45 exit velocity/fly ball rate/hard hit factor going his last two weeks as well.
- Donaldson against LHP at home is auto-play, even at $5.2K. Against lefties alone, JD has a .461 wOBA and .401 ISO, which are truly staggering numbers.
- Sano has a 95 mph avg exit velo over his past two weeks and enjoys nice splits against RHP (.382 wOBA, .236 ISO).
- The Cardinals have to bat this guy higher. Diaz has a 40% hard hit factor for the season and a .475 wOBA, .281 ISO against RHP so far this season.
- Cabrera ends up with one of the best individual splits matchups as he gets to bat lefty against Matt Wisler, who has a .408 wOBA against LH bats.
- Baez, albeit in a small sample size, has crushed lefties, rocking a .499 wOBA and .208 ISO. Make sure they’re playing him against LHP Jon Niese first, then let it rip.
- Like Donaldson, Stanton, at home, vs. LHP, is auto play. He’s .459 wOBA and .380 ISO for his career at home vs. LHP. That’s since 2010. Patrick Corbin gives up 1.263 HR/9 IP, so light a candle for his matchups with Stanton tonight.
- Hernandez has cooled significantly, but still carries a .515 wOBA and .350 ISO against LHP and a 182 expected power rating.
- Conforto and Granderson are both LH bats getting to face Matt Wisler (.408 wOBA against LH bats, just to remind you.) Conforto has a .402 wOBA against RHP and Granderson .388 and will be batting in the top third of the order tonight.
- Chris Young does great work against LHP, with a .409 wOBA and .249 ISO against LHP dating back to last season.
- Moss is boom/bust, with tons of power metrics on his side, even as his average flirts with awful (40% hard hit rate, 207 expected power).