Happy Friday! Ready to get done with the work week and escape into the majesty of the weekend. Feeling it! A tremendous, full-on MLB slate is on tap for tonight. There are scads of terrible pitching to pick on and offense abounds, so let’s get to it! Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position.
- Herrmann continues to rake, with 61% hard hit rating over his last seven games and a .248 ISO for the season against RHP.
- McCann is coming on lately, with a 199 expected power rating (100 is average) and 60% flyball rate over his last ten games.
- TEX SP Colby Lewis has a .330 wOBA against LH bats and Castro has a .205 ISO against RHP and a 164 expected power rating over his last 60 at-bats.
- Ortiz has a .427/.349 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and the Red Sox have an implied 4.2 run total despite Corey Kluber pitching.
- WAS SP Roark has had Bour’s number in a small sample size (14 at-bats), but Bour has been more consistent this season, and has a 153 expected power and 868 OPS over the last 80 at-bats against RHP.
- San Fran SP Jake Peavy has a 900 OPS vs. LH bats this year and is giving up 1.6 HR/9 IP. Rizzo has a .390/.276 wOBA/ISO split against RHP.
|2||Tommy La Stella||CHC||SF||$2,900|
- Dietrich isn’t on auto-play anymore, but has a strong .379/.210 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and should be batting first.
- Make sure he’s in the lineup, but La Stella is punishing RHP this season with a .959 OPS and .375 wOBA.
- Love the lefty on lefty split as it usually nets lower ownership; especially love it when Murphy has a .990 OPS vs. LHP this season.
|1||Jung Ho Kang||PIT||COL||$3,900|
|5||Colin Moran||HOU||TEX||$2,000|Kang is mashing everybody right now, and has a 268 expected power for the first 34 at-bats of the season, and the Pirates have an implied total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Editor’s Note: Jung Ho Kang is not in the lineup for the Pirates tonight.
- Valencia has been hot, and has always hit lefties, including a .385/.240 wOBA/ISO split this season. CC Sabathia has long been bad against RH bats, with a .364 wOBA against righties.
- If he in the lineup against RHP Colby Lewis, the Astros have a 4.9 implied run total, the highest on the slate and Moran, at the minimum, gives you some power upside and cheap exposure to that total.
- Correa has hit Colby Lewis well in his short career, getting a 1.667 OPS in nine at-bats (small sample alert!). Correa has been picking up the hitting lately, too, with a 128 expected power.
- Would love to see Diaz hit second again. He’s in a good spot with his .402 wOBA against LHP as ARI SP Corbin has a .346 wOBa against RH bats and has given up 1.6 HR/9 IP this season.
- Love Brad Miller against RHP, especially someone who gives up the long ball like DET SP Anibal Sanchez (1.790 per 9 IP). Miller has an excellent 162 expected power rating for the season.
- Don’t forget about Conforto, who is back to his hard-hitting ways with a 186 expected power over his last 20 at-bats. MIL SP Peralta may be the worst on the slate, with a .380 wOBA against LH bats.
- So that helps the Grandy Man, too, with a .380 wOBA/.289 ISO against RHP. The Mets have been bad, as a team, over the past two weeks, but have a 4.5 implied run total to underline the solid matchup against Peralta.
- If you want to go against the grain, CarGo has picked it up over his last 25 at-bats with an expected power rating of 154 and has a .418 wOBA/.312 ISO against RHP.
- Mazara has a .391 wOBA/.200 ISO against RHP and has somehow dropped below $3K despite McCullers not having much run this season and having a 4.61 SIERA in his first start.
- It’s a push on who beats up LHP more, Werth or Khris Davis — Werth has been moved up to the second spot and has a .451/.400 wOBA/ISO split against LHP and Davis has a .295 ISO against LHP.