This MLB Top 5s will cover this evening’s games. Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position. Any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72. Let’s do this!
- Norris has a .333/.172 wOBA/ISO split against LHP this season, SD is implied to score 4.6 runs, and Norris should be batting a reasonable sixth in the lineup tonight.
- McCann has been respectable on a reverse split (.335/.209 wOBA/ISO), is likely batting fourth at home and the Yankees have 4.8 implied run total here.
- Chirnos makes very hard contact (236 expected power – 100 is average in 2016) and has a .442/.326 wOBA/ISO split, making him a solid one-off catching punt, even against David Price.
- Davis has a positive matchup (.325 wOBA/.179 ISO) against TB SP Moore, who gives up 1.524 HR/9 IP and has a .323 wOBA against LH bats.
- All the Tigers are priced down vs. Danny Santana, so there’s value in their implied 4.0 run total tonight. It starts with Cabrera, who has a .413/.224 wOBA/ISO split against RHP.
- Same for CLE vs. DET SP Zimmermann, with CLE having the same 4.0 implied total. Napoli is under $3K, despite a .205 ISO against RHP and a 178 expected power over his last 100 at-bats.
- Very reasonable salary for Pedroia, batting second in a 5.5 implied run game for BOS against TEX SP Nick Martinez, who has a .389 wOBA against RH bats.
- Murphy is in Miller Park, a great hitter’s environment and is still hitting hard contact, with a 135 expected power over his last 21 at-bats and 40% hard contact rate over that span as well.
- Walker has a .193 ISO against RHP this season and a 187 expected power over the last 30 days going against ATL SP Blair, who carries a .388 wOBA against LH bats.
- Even against CLE SP Salazar, Castellanos is way too cheap for elite power, with a 155 expected power over his last 110 at-bats, a .345/.182 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and the Tigers expected to score at least 4 runs.
- Valencia continues his two year run of mashing both LHP and RHP, with a .367/.215 wOBA/ISO split, 175 expected power over his last two weeks and LAA SP Weaver giving up a .340 wOBA against RH bats and 1.615 HR/9 IP overall.
- Even with Arenado in Coors, I like Donaldson best overall. CWS SP Rodon gives up a .350 wOBA to RH bats and Donaldson, as known, destroys LHP, with a .413/.282 wOBA/ISO split this year to prove it.
- Tulo has continued to make hard contact, with a 147 expected power rating since his return. Toronto has a 4.7 implied run total tonight and Rodon has that .350 wOBA against RH bats.
- Espinosa continues to be a less expensive source of SS power, as he has a 131 expected power rating over the last week and a 188 number for the past month.
- The Reds have an implied 5.1 run total tonight and Cozart should continue to lead off. He also has a solid .194 ISO against RHP.
- Moya has been hot lately, with a 274 expected power rating over his last six games, which makes his min price, even against CLE SP Salazar, very enticing, especially to get COORS bats in play.
- Pick any ARI OF, they have above average expected power ratings over the last month, positive wOBA/ISO splits against LHP and are very reasonably priced for a Coors game against an inexperienced SP.
- The Grandy Man has a the .386/.265 wOBA/ISO against RHP this season and ATL SP Blair has that .388 wOBA against LH bats.
- Trumbo, at .249 ISO against LHP against Moore, who gives up over 1.5 homers per nine innings pitched and in BAL, which was #2 last year for home runs. Yes, please.
- Love Kemp against LHP, especially in Cincinnati. Kemp has a .431/.333 wOBA/ISO split and has 1.122 OPS against LHP for the year.