Happy July, everybody! The Top 5’s will cover a very strong 13-game slate tonight with plenty of strong offensive games to pull from, so let’s get to it! Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position. Any questions, hit me up on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
- Castro has great power upside, with a 168 expected power rating over last seven days, and the fly ball nature of Castro (53% over last seven days) goes well with the ground ball (GB) nature of CWS SP Gonzalez (44% over last 15 days) and Gonzalez’s .350 wOBA vs. LH bats.
- McCann carries a strong .380 wOBA/.255 ISO against LHP and Drew Smyly is giving up 1.7 HR/9 IP and 34% hard contact to RH bats.
- Hundley is going too good right now (171 expected power over last seven days) to be ignored at the minimum.
- Moss has massive power upside, with a 230 expected power over last seven days and 47% hard contact over his last two weeks. His fly ball profile (54% over last week, 50% for season) goes well against MIL SP Garza’s 48% GB rate vs. LH bats.
- Hosmer is a solid cash game play with a 132 hard hit factor (100 is average), 80% contact rate for the year and PHI SP Hellickson’s .378 wOBA against LH bats.
- Abreu has a strong .366 wOBA against RHP and HOU SP Fiers has a .338 split against RH bats.
- Cano is hot fire right now, with a 166 hard contact rating over the last week, 50% hard hit percentage over last two weeks and a strong .433 wOBA/.282 ISO against RHP this season.
- Walker has a 134/174 expected power/hard hit meter over the last week and 44% hard hit over last two weeks.
- Matt Carpenter is a cash game giant and has a .410 wOBA against RHP, 265 expected power and 80% contact rate over the last week.
- Valbuena has a 249 expected power rating over the last week and a solid matchup against CWS Gonzalez, who has a .352 wOBA against LH bats, with a 50% GB rate, matching well with Valbuena’s current 46% fly ball rate.
- Nolan Arenado has a .378/.281 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and 38% hard contact against righties as well.
- Castellanos has hit for a 299 expected power, 192 hard hit factor and a 82% contact rate. Also, a 39% hard hit percentage against LHP for the season.
- Diaz is back on a hot streak, with a white hot 343 expected power rating over the last week and .392 wOBA against RHP this season. He’s questionable tonight, so make sure he’s in lineup, but that could lower ownership as well.
- Semien rocks a 181 expected power over the last seven days and 38% hard contact over the past two weeks. He also has a .417/.263 wOBA/ISO split against LHP and PIT SP Locke offers an above average 33% hard contact against RH bats and a 48% GB profile that fits Semien’s current 57% fly ball rate well.
- Story has a 180/192 expected power/hard hit rate over last week and a solid 34% hard hit percentage away vs. RHP for the year.
- LAD SP Bud Norris has given up 41% hard contact his year to LH bats, and Blackmon (.396) and Gonzalez (.356) have solid wOBA away from home against RHP and above average hard hit percentages.
- Choo has a 164 hard hit rating over the past week, a .392 wOBA against RHP and Texas has an implied total of five runs tonight.
- Grossman has 41% hard contact against LHP this season and TEX SP Perez is yielding 37% hard contact to RH bats this season. The Twins have an implied 4.8 run total tonight and Robbie should be batting high in the MIN order.
- Holliday has 50% hard contact over the past 11 games which has translated to a strong 150/191 expected power hard hit factor over the same stretch.
- Colby Rasmus has a 152 expected power over his last week and 44% hard hit over the last nine games.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.