Welcome to the weekend! A strong 10-game slate is here to comfort you if you didn’t roster Anthony Rizzo and/or Jean Segura last night but had plenty of Kyle Schwarber. Rankings are based on value projections. These are the Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position. Let’s get to it!
- Boston SP Joe Kelly has heavy reverse splits (.342 wOBA vs. righties, 780 OPS), putting Toronto righties like Martin in the value circle.
- MIL/HOU has a game total of nine runs tonight, and Lucroy is batting fourth with Scott Feldman working a .340 vs. righties wOBA.
- Baltimore was the #2 HR park last season and Conger is always an above average hard contact punt play against RHP.
- Ortiz has picked up where he left off last year, with hard contact and power (Top 10 last season), especially vs. RHP.
- Chris Carter has the power upside and a reverse split matchup with Scott Feldman in Miller Park, making a great combination for tournament upside.
- Brandon Moss, if starting, will be a low owned, and is a super high upside power play (157 expected power in 2015, 47% fly ball rate) against RHP Matthew Wisler, who rocked a .419 wOBA against lefties last season.
- Ever since Edgar Martinez worked with him to improve his swing plane, the old Robinson Cano has been back and has homered four times already this season, with the underlying power metrics (193 expected power, 136 hard hit meter – 100 is average) to match.
- Zobrist gets Arizona SP Robbie Ray, who was bad against both lefties and righties, but especially righties, with a .370 home wOBA against them.
- 11% walk rate and high hard contact numbers (163 expected power, 165 hard hit meter) for Brock Holt, who carries a hot bat into Rogers Centre against Toronto.
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- Bryant is one of those Cubs righty power bats that should tee off against Ray (.370 home wOBA vs. righties) and is primed for his first HR of the season in this nine run total game.
- Jake Lamb is hitting the ball against RHP with authority (.369 wOBA) and batting behind on base machines Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta, giving him plenty of opportunities to see good pitches and drive in some runs.
- Luis Valbuena finished among the top power producers last season (147 expected power, top 50) and is an all-or-nothing power play (45% fly ball rate) in Miller Park (#1 homer park last season) against a RHP.
- Another Jays righty bat to go against Joe Kelly, Tulo at 4.1K along with his new approach at the plate that has already generated some extreme power metrics and fly ball rates (57%).
- Not sure why Jean Segura’s salary has dropped since he’s been on fire atop the Diamondbacks lineup, and even though one of his HRs last night was an inside-the-parker, his underlying hard hit and power metrics (151 expected power, 157 hard hit meter) say he’s above average right now.
- Carlos Correa (3 HRs, 2000 OPS, 3x average hard hit/expected power metrics) is on the Top 5 until otherwise noted or salary reaches 5.5K.
- It’s a toss-up between Tulo and Nelson Cruz as to who has the better matchup, but Cruz vs. a LHP (.416 wOBA) gets the nod from me against Eric Surkamp.
- Corey Dickerson emerged from his first non-Rockies week with some very encouraging power metrics and still carrying a .419 wOBA against RHP.
- Not sure what it will ever take for David Peralta (.369 wOBA vs. RHP, .380 at home) to be treated like the stud he is, but I’m cool with continuing to roster him at 3.6K.
- Matt Szczur should get some extra opportunity with Kyle Schwarber out for a while and his power metrics say this will be a really good thing, especially starting out against Ray.
- Rasmus, with his extreme power (top 25 expected power last season -149 rating), fills the middle of the Astros order and is playing in the #1 home run park in baseball (Miller Park) while only being priced at 3.4K.