With a seven game slate tonight, we don’t have a ton of options to choose from with pitching. We have about two or three solid picks and the rest will be tough to get through. Let’s take a look at our options tonight and grab some of those good match ups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
1) Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. ARZ – $11,200 – – On a slate like today, I’m not concerned with Fernandez’s matchup. He’s been great for the most part, coming into tonight with an absurd 12.5 K/9, but his walks have been a problem, checking in at 4.4 BB/9. He’s had two bad starts that have certainly inflated his ERA, as he’s still averaging 20.7 FPPG with a 4.08 ERA. What doesn’t get me all giddy for this matchup is that the Diamondbacks, at least up until tonight, aren’t striking out a ton against righties with a 20% K rate. Obviously Fernandez has the ability to change all that, but it is a bit concerning with his high price tag.
2) Aaron Sanchez – TOR vs. TEX – $6,400 – – First off, the price for Sanchez is very friendly at $6,400. He’s been solid against right-handed bats his entire career, owning a career .192 wOBA. The Rangers have more lefties in their lineups than they do righties, but coming into tonight the Rangers own a .305 wOBA against righties with a 19% K rate. I think grabbing Sanchez on this spot may sound scarier than it looks, and I think he could come away as great value tonight.
3) Drew Smyly – TAM vs. LAD – $10,900 – -This is why I never take W-L records into account. Smyly enters tonight with a 1-3 record, but the rest of his numbers are extremely solid. Smyly owns a 2.60 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.6. Facing the Dodgers tonight, Smyly owns the second highest price tag of the night. The Dodgers own a .310 wOBA thus far against lefties which ranks 18th in the league. The downfall here is their 17.7 K%, which ranks 28th in the league. For as good as Smyly has been, the K potential isn’t as high as in past starts, which bumps him down in my ranks for tonight. If strikeouts weren’t a factor, I’d be more inclined to get a ton of exposure to him.
“Coming into tonight with a .276 wOBA against lefties, Rodon feels awfully enticing in this matchup”
4) Carlos Rodon – CHW vs. BOS – $7,400 – – For as good as the Red Sox have been offensively, they have been struggling against left-handed pitchers. Coming into tonight with a .276 wOBA against lefties, Rodon feels awfully enticing in this matchup. The Red Sox don’t have a very strong lineup to throw out when facing a left-handed pitcher, with names like Chris Young and Ryan Hanigan drawing the starts. Their 24.2 K% ranks 10th in the league in the early going here. For the price of Rodon, this could be a great spot for him, especially for someone that’s only averaging 14.1 FPPG.
5) Mike Fiers – HOU vs. MIN – $8,300 – – Fiers is in an interesting spot going up against the Twins. I think he’s priced perfectly for this matchup and the potential he has. Averaging only 12.6 FPPG, Fiers takes on a Twins team owning a .306 wOBA against right-handed bats with a very enticing 23.3 K%. Fiers has been below his 8.9 K/9 career average so far this season, checking in at 6.8. It certainly hasn’t all been his fault, as he’s had matchups against tough teams to strike out like the Royals and Athletics. Tonight could certainly see a boost in his strikeouts and may be sneaky for people seeing a 6.8 K/9.
|6||Rubby De La Rosa||ARZ||MIA||$7,700|
6) Rubby De La Rosa – ARZ vs. MIA – $7,700 – – I never thought I’d see the day where I didn’t hate the spot De La Rosa was in, but here we are. De La Rosa, for as awful as he’s been over the past year and a half, is coming off two SOLID outings against tough teams. Putting up a combined 61.3 points in starts against the Pirates and Cardinals, De La Rosa might be a serious option against the Marlins tonight. The Marlins are hitting righties well, with a .329 wOBA, but with the good hitting comes the inability to score runs, as they rank 16th against righties. I think the perception on De La Rosa is that he’s still very unsafe, and that may be true, but I can’t deny the man putting up two solid outings with a much easier one on tap tonight.
“Leake is someone that goes out to the mound, gives you six or seven innings, but it won’t be anything special”
7) Mike Leake – STL vs PHI – $7,400 – – Leake is someone that goes out to the mound, gives you six or seven innings, but it won’t be anything special. Averaging 7.9 FPPG, Leake is facing a Phillies offense that has a .291 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and strike out at a decent 22%. Not too shabby by any means, but Leake owns a career 6.1 K/9 and sits at 5.8 this season. He’s not a big strikeout guy by any means. With that being said, I think he’s a bit overpriced for this matchup. A contrarian GPP play and nothing more.
8) Adam Morgan – PHI vs. STL – $4,800 – – Leake’s opponent tonight, Adam Morgan is making his second start of the season after pitching five innings against the Reds allowing three runs on five hits with a nice 7:1 K:BB ratio. Morgan does have some nice strikeout potential, as he owned a K/9 of 10 in the minors before his call up. Even with the Cardinals striking out 23.9% of the time against lefties, my issue is how well they’re hitting, owning a .339 wOBA with a .424 SLG against lefties. His price tag is small enough that he could bring some serious value on the night, I’m just not jumping all over him just yet.
9) Tyler Wilson – BAL vs. NYY – $4,600 – – I’m certainly not saying to do this, but you could essentially have two pitchers on your roster tonight for a grand total of $9,400. Talk about value, baby! Wilson makes his third start of the season against a Yankees team that owns a sad .292 wOBA against right-handed batters. They aren’t striking out a lot, owning a 20 K% against those righties. Even in his two starts, Wilson has grabbed only five strikeouts in nine innings as a starter, bringing his total K/9 on the year at 4.5. It won’t take much for Wilson to reach value here, but the upside isn’t really here for the taking.
10) Colby Lewis – TEX vs. TOR – $7,200 – – I don’t have much I like about Lewis at all. The only bump he got over the likes of Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Alex Wood and CC Sabathia, is that the Blue Jays still continue to struggle with no end in sight at this time. The Blue Jays are in the league average for wOBA against righties at .317, but they’re striking out a ton with a 24.9 K%. Lewis isn’t a big strikeout guy, but his K/9 is a bit lower than normal, so to obtain his 6.3 K/9 from last season in this spot doesn’t seem unreasonable.