Pitching is not pretty on Wednesday. I don’t know how to put it any other way. The good news here is that the truly viable options aren’t priced out of consideration, so we’ll be able to build a few lineups here on Wednesday night. Let’s dig in. Oh, and find me on Twitter, @RyNoonan. I’m mostly done tweeting about how Kevin Durant should’ve gone to Boston, so fear not.
Top 5 Pitchers
1) Johnny Cueto – SF vs. COL – $11,800 – Let’s not complicate things here. Johnny Cueto is the best pitcher on the slate, he’s the biggest favorite and has the lowest implied-team total against at just 2.8 for the Rockies. I think this is a difficult slate with only a small handful of options, and Cueto is the safest of the pack.
2) Michael Pineda – NYY vs. CWS – $10,600 – You could make the case for Michael Pineda over Cueto as the top play on the board, and you might see it play out that way in terms of ownership percentage on Wednesday. A lot of that has to do with Pineda’s current form and recent strikeout totals. He has an elite 14.3 swinging-strike rate this season, and that’s going up every start. The White Sox offense has mostly been chasing it’s proverbial tail since April, so they’re not a team that we should fear.
3) Jaime Garcia – STL vs. PIT – $8,300 – After being more of a pitch-to-contact type of pitcher in the past, Jaime Garcia is missing more bats this season. He’s still getting an exceptional amount of grounders which helps him out, but the K’s are king in DFS. The NL Central Pirates are a familiar foe, but their 24% whiff rate against lefties helps Garcia’s case on Wednesday.
“His upside is immense due to his 10 K/9 output. . .”
4) Drew Smyly – TB vs. LAA – $8,100 – After a dominant April, Drew Smyly has been difficult to peg in May or June. Let’s see what July has in store. His upside is immense due to his 10 K/9 output, but the Angels strikeout less than any other team in the league this season. He’s affordable today so he’s worth a look, just don’t trust him in cash games.
5) Marcus Stroman – TOR vs. KC – $6,400 – I want Marcus Stroman to be better, but he’s not right now. He’s so hit or miss, but one thing he’s not doing is missing bats, with just a 6.42 K/9 on the season. He’s getting a ton of ground balls though, which I like to see, but they’re finding the holes right now. He’s been on the wrong side of the BABIP fortune and his strand rate is poor too which explains his 5.08 ERA. I think he’s better than that, but in a spot that he might be popular due to the lack of options at SP2, I’ll stay away.
|9||Jorge De La Rosa||COL||SF||$6,300|
6) Steven Wright – BOS vs. TEX – $9,400 – How’s the knuckler going to dance tonight? It’s an unknown right now as Wright has not been sharp in his past two starts, one of which was against this Rangers club down in Arlington. He’s at Fenway tonight but it’s still a tall task. His poor current form and price dip below $10,000 does present a buying opportunity in tournaments though.
7) Mike Fiers – HOU vs. SEA – $6,700 – The 6.02 K/9 that Mike Fiers has posted to date this season is pretty incredible. After being well above league average the past two seasons, Fiers is well below it this season with his current mark. Look out for the Seattle right-handed bats here (Nelson Cruz, perhaps?), as Fiers sports a .337 wOBA against righties dating back to the start of 2015.
“. . . Rea has struck out a batter per inning over his last three contests”
8) Colin Rea – SD vs. ARZ – $7,200 – Strikeout upside is something you must have here on DraftKings, and there’s just not a ton of it on this slate. Colin Rea has surprisingly flashed a bit of it lately, and it makes him worth a longer than usual look today. The Diamondbacks have one of the highest implied-team totals on the slate, so don’t get carried away, but they do strike out 24.5% of the time against righties and Rea has struck out a batter per inning over his last three contests.
9) Jorge De La Rosa – COL vs. SF – $6,300 – There isn’t a bigger park shift in all of baseball when we’re talking about going from Coors Field to San Francisco’s AT&T Park, so that’s working in De La Rosa’s favor. He’s also been serviceable his last few times out, with double digit DraftKings points in his last three starts. He doesn’t miss many bats so there’s not a ton of upside, but he’s not a horrible SP2 on this slate in cash, even paired with his opponent Johnny Cueto.
10) Shelby Miller – ARZ vs. SD – $4,600 – I wish my analysis could begin and end with ‘they make me list ten guys’, but that’s a bit of a cop out. The tournament-only case that one can make for Shelby Miller is that he’s a 11 months removed from an All-Star Game appearance and can’t be THIS bad, can he? I think he can. The Padres are 29th in the league against right-handed pitching and Miller is priced like a second outfielder.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.