Happy Tuesday Gamers! We have a robust thirteen game schedule with the first pitch at 7:05 ET and a plethora of tasty matchups. Will Giancarlo Stanton continue his destruction of Stephen Strasburg? Is Paul Goldschmidt still worthy of a roster spot given the tough ballpark he plays in tonight? Let’s waste no more time and get to the targets!
Editor’s Note: Julio Teheran has been scratched from his start tonight. Either Matt Wisler or Williams Perez will toe the rubber for the Braves.
Francisco Liriano – PIT at SD – $9,800 – Liriano skipped his last start with a tight hamstring, so by all accounts he should be good to go tonight. As we have already seen, picking on the San Diego Padres is going to be a thing this year, so this is going to be an incredibly popular play, and it would not surprise me to see Liriano on 55%+ rosters in tournaments and even higher in the cash game format. It is always a rollercoaster ride with Liriano, but this matchup is going to be incredibly hard to ignore.
Stephen Strasburg – WAS at MIA – $11,000 – Speaking of rollercoasters, Strasburg is going to be a very divisive option today. On one hand, the Nationals are solid -140 road favorites, and the Marlins are projected to plate 3.4 runs, so gamers will flock to the strikeout upside. On the other hand, current Marlins hitters have tuned up the pseudo-ace with a .279/.341/.455 slash line, albeit with only 24 extra base hits in 233 at bats with a healthy 27.4% strikeout rate. Something has to give today.
Logan Verrett – NYM at PHI – $5,600 – This is an excellent price point play and will likely be another very popular pick. However, by going this route we will have extra salary cap for our hitters and will likely make our differentiation plays there. Over the last two seasons against right-handed pitching, the current Philadelphia hitters rank dead last with an 83 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus, an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park factors and creates a league-wide scoring efficiency benchmark of 100) meaning that the Phillies score 17% less efficiently against right-handed pitching than the league average. Over the same period, they also have the fourth highest strikeout rate at 22.0% and the third lowest power numbers with a .131 ISO.
“. . . he is another option that has high upside”
Alex Wood – LAD at ATL – $6,000 – Wood spent the first three seasons in The Show with the Atlanta Braves, so most of his former teammates have not faced him in a live pitching environment. Over the last two seasons, current Braves have accumulated a 79 wRC+ against southpaws which is the worst in the Majors. They have a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate of 20.9% and do not hit for any power whatsoever with a .101 ISO (the next lowest team is the Padres with a .115 ISO and then the Giants with a .126 ISO for a perspective of just how bad they are). Wood tends to have really good or really awful outings, and while he fits in with the rollercoaster theme, he is another option that has high upside.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA at CHW – $5,000 – Trout is one of the top three players in baseball in any given scenario. Over the last two years he has produced a .406 wOBA (weighted on base average) and a 168 wRC+ with a .290 ISO (isolated power) against right-handed pitching. If you have the means, he is a luxury worth obtaining Tuesday.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA vs WAS – $4,200 – To BvP or not to BvP, that is the question. Yes, there are gamers firmly entrenched on both sides of the batter vs pitcher argument; however, this one may have a little merit. A significant number of gamers are going to choose Stephen Strasburg today, so if you are someone who is not, then increase your separation opportunities and look to Stanton who has gone 12 for 32 in his career against Strasburg for a .406 average with a 1.361 OPS on the strength of five walks, three home runs and six doubles. Enjoy!
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – AZ at SD – $4,500 – RHP Matt Cain’s best days are well behind him so we want to focus on some Arizona hitters despite the ballpark downgrade. I will keep trumpeting this stat, but what most gamers fail to realize is that Goldy is in the top five weighted on base percentage leaders with a .397 wOBA with anyone who has had more than 650 at bats against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. The others are Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley, Mike Trout and Carlos Gonzalez.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL vs TOR – $4,500 – Since the beginning of 2014, Machado has really produced in righty/righty matchups accruing a .376 wOBA and a fantastic.210 ISO.
“In five plate appearances against the knuckleballer Mike Wright, Joey Bats has a home run, a double and two walks”
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR at BAL – $5,300 – He is not going to be cheap; however, in five plate appearances against the knuckleballer Mike Wright, Joey Bats has a home run, a double and two walks. Let’s just say his confidence will be high in this matchup.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT at SD – $4,600 – Yeah, this is in Petco Park, but McCutchen is so talented, he is not overly affected by any park factors. Across his last 1,100+ at bats against righties, he has a .392 wOBA and a 196 wRC+ which means he creates runs nearly twice as often as the average MLB hitter against righties.
Jose Altuve (2B) – HOU at TEX – $5,200 – It looks like DraftKings knows that the diminutive Altuve thrives against left-handed pitching and has adjusted his price accordingly. Since the beginning of 2014, Altuve has a .427 wOBA and a 174 wRC+ against southpaws. He is a fine option in all formats Tuesday.
Joey Votto (1B) – CIN vs COL – $4,000 – Do not be lulled to sleep by this lefty/lefty matchup against Jorge De La Rosa. Since the start of the 2014 season, Votto has put up a .428 wOBA and a .241 ISO in same-handed matchups.
Travis Shaw (3B) – $3,500 – This is a sweet discount for Shaw who has been a burr under the saddle of southpaws with a .401 wOBA and an other-worldly .276 ISO. Granted it is just a 90 at bat sample size, but for this price and matchup against LHP Drew Smyly, I am taking a shot for the upside.
David Peralta (OF) – AZ at SF – $3,300 – Trust the process, Peralta will come through for us soon, just trust the process. He’s coming off of 19 DKFP his last outing, and he’ll be up against the weak, right-handed Matt Cain tonight.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD at ATL – $3,400 – RHP Julio Teheran is a pitcher to target against. He really has had just one good season and then he shows flashes of brilliance from time-to-time before scuffling for a month or three in-between these events. The young shortstop, Corey Seager, has been outstanding against right-handed pitching in his short time in The Show, so he will be a popular value play on Tuesday.
Justin Turner (3B) – LAD at ATL – $3,400 – Continuing the theme of picking on Julio Teheran, JT has tallied a .387 wOBA in same-handed matchups over his last two-plus seasons, and he makes for a fine synergy play with Seager and any other Dodger hitters that capture your fancy in the top half of the batting order.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs KC – $3,900 – Could you imagine the Houston offense right now if they still had Martinez? He is a fine play against RHP Yordano Ventura, as most gamers will shy away from the name recognition. In his last 800+ at bats against righties, J.D. has accrued a .370+ wOBA and a .230+ ISO.
“A contrarian Miami Marlins stack really could be a thing in tournaments tonight”
Justin Bour (1B) – MIA vs WAS – $2,700 – The DK pricing is giving a lot of credence to RHP Stephen Strasburgh’s ability. Last season the rookie first baseman, Justin Bour, acquitted himself well against Strasburg going 5 for 13 with a home run, two walks and just three strikeouts in fifteen plate appearances. A contrarian Miami Marlins stack really could be a thing in tournaments tonight.
Joe Panik (2B) – SF vs AZ – $3,300 – Panik is a nice filler play as he has been a solid performer against southpaws with a .350+ wOBA and a 130 wRC+ over his last 200 at bats versus left-handed pitchers.
Brian McCann © – NYY vs OAK – $3,800 – Don’t worry about the lefty/lefty matchup. McCann will hold his own, and he gets a favorable bump for the Yankee Stadium short porch. LHP Eric Surkamp is likely in for a long (or is that short) night.