Targets will focus on the 11-game slate tonight. Any questions please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. HOU – $12,300 – The Astros are more dangerous than the Padres, who face David Price tonight, but Carrasco has more upside than Price due to the Astros’ strikeout tendencies. The Astros hold the fourth highest K rate in the league over the past 14 days, so I think Carrasco can pile up 10-12 Ks tonight and get to 36 DraftKings points (DKFP), which he’s done in two of his last three starts. Carrasco is coming off an incredible 30 day run of 33.1% K-BB rate and a 1.97 SIERA mark.
Robbie Ray – ARI at LAD – $8,300 – Ray has maintained his high K rate for quite a while now, including a 26.5% mark over the last 30 days. The Dodgers are second to last in wRC+ against LHP and project out to the third highest strikeout total on the slate.
Brock Stewart – LAD vs. ARI – $4,500 – Stewart struck out eight Cubs in his last start and piled up nearly 25 DKFP and the Diamondbacks are nowhere near as productive/efficient as Chicago. Temperatures should be cooler and with expanded rosters in September, I’m looking for high K-rates, and Stewart’s 29.7% K-rate works in that capacity.
Mike Montgomery – CHC at MIL – $4,300 – The strikeout upside is here, with Montgomery’s 23.2% K-rate combined with the 27.8% K-rate of the Brewers. It’s a dangerous play, because of the .202 ISO bats of MIL over the past 14 days and playing in Miller Park. Montgomery has control issues, but if he gets 6-7 Ks and rises to 12-15 DKFP, that’ll be value returned at $4.3K.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. SF – $5,300 – Highest total of the night is, naturally, the Rockies at 6.1 implied runs. CarGo hits RHP well in Coors (144 wRC+, .295 ISO) and SF SP Suarez has given up a 5.46 xFIP against LH bats this season.
Trea Turner (2B/OF) – WAS vs. ATL – $4,700 – Turner’s stats at home against RHP are tremendous: 162 wRC+, .311 ISO and should be batting leadoff against ATL SP Foltynewicz with the Nationals having an implied run total of 4.9.
Hunter Pence (OF) – SFG at COL – $4,700 – Reasonable price here for a top of the lineup RH bat against COL SP de la Rosa, who has given up 1.77 HR/9 IP against RH bats at home this season. Pence has hit LHP well, with a 137 wRC+ and .284 ISO against them this season.
Carlos Santana (1B) – CLE vs. HOU – $4,400 – Love the Indians at home against RHP, especially a RHP like HOU SP Doug Fister, who has been getting hammered by LH bats this season, with 37% hard contact, a 5.48 xFIP and 1.7 HR/9 IP rate. Santana should be near, or at the top, of the lineup for Cleveland.
Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN vs. KCR – $5,600 – Brian Dozier is the hottest hitter in baseball, racking up a 297 expected power, and a 50% hard contact rate over past two weeks. He gets a matchup against Danny Duffy (LHP) who has given up 1.3 HR/9 IP away against RH bats.
Kyle Seager (3B) – SEA vs. TEX – $4,300 – TEX SP Griffin has pitched better of late, but his splits against LH bats on the road are still awful (5.06 xFIP, 2.77 HR/9 IP). Seager got a huge contract almost entirely based on the damage he does against RHP at home, and his split this season has him at a 164 wRC+.
Brandon Crawford (SS) – SFG at COL – $4,100 – The big reverse splits that Crawford is known for haven’t materialized on the road this season, but at this price and batting fifth as he’s projected, with the Giants on a 5.9 implied run total, he’s worth a look. Crawford has also been raising his power metrics, with an expected power of 123 over the last week (100 is average).
Jonathan Lucroy (CATCH) – TEX at SEA – $4,100 – SEA SP Miranda has trouble with RH bats, even at home, where he’s given up a 4.63 xFIP and 2.35 HR/9 IP in split. Lucroy, since becoming a Ranger, has a 233 wRC+/.750 ISO in 13 at-bats against LHP on the road.
Raimel Tapia (OF) – COL vs. SFG – $2,900 – Inexpensive for a potential leadoff hitter in Coors, especially in his positive split. Tapia has scored over nine points per game since filling in for Charlie Blackmon.
Tyler Naquin (OF) – CLE vs. HOU – $3,800 – Great split against RHP Fister as discussed above with Carlos Santana, and while Naquin has cooled recently, his hard contact is still there, with a 52% rating over the past two weeks.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. ATL – $3,700 – The Nationals continue to bat him second in good matchups like this one against the Braves. Werth is not as strong against right handed pitching, but he should still be in the middle of the goodness.
Yasmani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD vs. ARI – $3,200 – Great one-off catching punt here against Robbie Ray, who still gives up a lot of hard contact despite his high whiff rates. Grandal loves LHP at home, with a 162 wRC+ total in split.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL at PIT – $3,400 – Another possible one-off against PIT SP Taillon is Adams, who has been making a ton of hard contact (50% over past two weeks) and has had an expected power of 163 over the past six games.
Addison Russell (SS) – CHC at MIL – $3,800 – Russell should be batting fifth against MIL SP Garza, who has a 4.51 SIERA over his last 30 days which is one of the main reasons why the Cubs have an implied run total of 4.9.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.