Today’s targets will focus on the slightly different six game slate. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Max Scherzer – WAS vs. ATL – $13,700 – Scherzer has the high strikeout upside (31.5 K%, highest on slate) and is pitching at home against the Braves, who are bottom five in away wRC+ and vs. RHP wRC+. The price is high, but so are his contemporaries tonight, so there is little relief and not as much access to excellence as this.
Felix Hernandez – SEA vs. TEX – $8,200 – Better K rates at home (22% total, 26% vs. RH bats at home), Safeco is a better pitcher’s park, and the Rangers have an implied run total of only 3.8 against King Felix, which is line for his xFIP at home over the last two months.
Adam Wainwright – STL at PIT – $7,400 – In 26.1 innings pitched since July 1st on the road, Wainwright has a 3.94 xFIP with 21% K-rate and faces a Pirates team at home that is only running two LH bats at the Cardinal RHP.
Khris Davis (OF) – OAK vs. LAA – $4,200 – One of tonight’s main targets for bats will be against LAA SP Jered Weaver, who has a 5.83 SIERA over his past 30 days. Davis is one of the many Oakland power bats that are in play in my opinion, and they are priced down somewhat as well. Davis has a .310 ISO against RHP at home and will be batting in the four slot.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. ATL – $4,600 – Werth homered three times last week against RHP. I think the Nationals are in a good stacking spot here against ATL SP Weber, and Werth should be in the 2-slot, as he was last week in similar situations.
Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL at PIT – $4,600 – Very hot bat (53% hard hit over past two weeks) with strong reverse split power (.280 ISO vs. RHP) and STL MGR Matheny has moved him up to the 6-spot because of his recent 270 expected power run (100 is average).
Brandon Belt (1B) – SFG at COL – $4,400 – Completely reasonable salary for the 150 wRC+/.241 ISO vs. RHP on the road slugger in Coors Field.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – CLE vs. HOU – $4,900 – Cleveland with a projected home total too modest for their excellence there; Kipnis has a 150 wRC+/.250 ISO at home against RHP and should be batting second tonight.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs. ARI – $4,300 – Discounted due to facing ARI SP Greinke, Seager is one of those great bats against great pitchers plays here at home at a lower price that might be lower owned because of the whole matchup. Seager’s 143 expected power over the past week and 20% walk rate over the same indicates he’s not slowing down as he winds through his rookie campaign.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs. SFG – $5,600 – If you need to go lower, CLE’s Jose Ramirez is excellent at home against RHP, but if there’s a way you can find the dough for Arenado, he’s your play in my opinion. Nolan, at home against LHP, has a 166 wRC+/.315 ISO.
Wilson Ramos (CATCH) – WAS vs. ATL – $4,200 – Ramos is solid at home against RHP, where he has a 139 wRC+ and may not be as heavily owned, even in this good matchup, due to Coors and the reverse split here.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. HOU – $3,600 – Napoli is great at home against RHP (166 wRC+/.316 ISO), many people play Carlos Santana at 1B in good matchups, which may leave Napoli lower owned, and Mike Fiers is worse against RH bats than LH ones.
Ryan Raburn (OF) – COL vs. SFG – $3,300 – Ridiculously low price here, middle of the lineup against LHP for Raburn, who has a .404 wOBA/.286 ISO in split here.
Stephen Cardullo (1B) – COL vs. SFG – $3,000 – Cardullo has come up swinging, with a 195 expected power over the last week and is batting seventh against LHP Moore, with the Rockies holding a 6.1 implied total.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL at PIT – $3,400 – Adams is batting fourth coming off the DL for the Cardinals and PIT SP Kuhl has a 6.45 xFIP against LH bats at home.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.