Friday features a huge 14 game slate tonight with a ton of fantastic match ups to exploit. Let’s get you ready for this big night on DraftKings, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
David Price – BOS vs. OAK – $11,900 – David Price seems like he’s actually pitching like, well, David Price. In the month of August over 40 innings, Price held opposing hitters to a .284 wOBA with a .399 SLG and a .270 OBP. He’s facing the Athletics in Oakland today and it’s a much better start than you may think. The narrative about facing the Athletics is that they don’t strikeout enough to roster a pitcher more times than not. However, since the All-Star Break, the Athletics own a 21.1 K%, which ranks 11th in the league. Not only that, the A’s owns a .298 wOBA during that span with a .296 OBP and a .391 SLG. With the cozy comforts of the Oakland Coliseum behind him, you have to believe Price can pull out another solid start here. Over his last five starts, Price is averaging 22.5 FPPG with a 30:8 K:BB ratio.
Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. MIA – $10,700 – Carrasco has most certainly had his issues at Progressive Field this season. Coming into this start against the Marlins, Carrasco owns a 4.77 ERA with a .356 wOBA and a .518 SLG. Certainly not numbers you want to see when targeting a starting pitcher in that environment. However, he faces a seriously depleted Marlins team tonight that is missing Giancarlo Stanton and potentially Marcell Ozuna. If they send out the same lineup as last night, the Marlins have three players that own a K% of 25% or higher against right-handed pitchers in Mathis, Scruggs and Francoeur. Four of those players have an ISO of .101 or less and six players had a SLG% under .400. Watch that lineup, but Carrasco could be a fine play tonight, even at home.
Jeremy Hellickson – PHI vs. ATL – $4,500 – This is a crazy low price for Hellickson, who hasn’t been as bad as his price suggests. At just $4,500, his matchup against the Braves makes me think he’ll be highly owned tonight. He’s faced the Braves twice already this season with very mediocre results, going 11.2 innings allowing five runs (four earned) on 13 hits with just a 5:3 K:BB ratio. Hellickson has been much better at home this season, averaging 17.4 FPPG in 13 starts with a .317 wOBA to opposing hitters. Since the All-Star Break, Hellickson owns a .289 wOBA with a .397 SLG with a K/9 of 7. He won’t have to do much to return value tonight, making him a fantastic play.
Robbie Ray – ARZ vs. COL – $6,000 – I’ve said this many, many times this season; I’m not a huge fan of taking pitchers in Coors Field, and rightfully so. But it’s hard to deny the K ability of Robbie Ray, and at just $6,000, he could hold some real value tonight. He’s faced the Rockies twice already this season with average results, but Ray possesses a K/9 of 12.4 since the All-Star break. This is definitely not a safe play, but it could return a good payoff if it works out.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARZ vs. COL – $5,700 – Goldy has an insane price tag associated with him tonight. It’ll be tough to get him in our lineups tonight, but against lefties this season, Goldy owns a .444 wOBA with a 1.069 OPS and a .584 SLG. Those are some fantastic numbers when you figure he’s going up against Jorge De La Rosa.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs. NYY – $4,500 – I like Davis in this spot at a “discounted” (when compared to Goldschmidt) $4,500 taking on Chad Green. Since his call up, Green has been getting pummeled by left-handed batters, owning a .421 wOBA with a .654 SLG with a horrific eight home runs allowed. Those numbers sound like a prime matchup for Davis, who has a .341 wOBA at home against right-handed pitchers with 12 home runs.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs KCR – $4,600 – Martinez has been a force against left-handed pitching this season and a matchup against Danny Duffy isn’t going to scare me off. Martinez owns a .391 wOBA against lefties with a .583 SLG and a .939 OPS. Duffy has certainly been great this season, but it will be interesting to see how he bounces back after his horrific start against the Red Sox his last time out.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. TBR – $5,600 – Very expensive for Donaldson tonight, but I’m intrigued about his matchup against the returning Alex Cobb of the Rays. Cobb is returning from Tommy John surgery and making his first start since 2014, and his numbers in the minors haven’t been pretty. In 21.2 innings between A and Triple A ball, Cobb allowed 16 runs on 31 hits with three home runs allowed. Donaldson has a .433 wOBA against righties at home with a .645 SLG.
Francisco Lindor (SS) – CLE vs. MIA – $4,900 – I always love grabbing Lindor at home against a right-handed pitcher, as he’s seen plenty of success in this situation. Coming into tonight, Lindor owns a .406 wOBA with a .979 OPS and a .562 SLG. Facing someone as volatile of Andrew Cashner, who owns a .356 wOBA against lefties, this is certainly a great matchup.
Rougned Odor (2B) – TEX vs. HOU – $4,900 – Odor against Fister is certainly a matchup I want to exploit, especially with this game in Texas. Odor owns a .353 wOBA against righties at home with a .539 SLG with 10 of his 27 home runs. Fister has been good this season, but he owns a .387 wOBA against lefties on the road with 10 of his 14 home runs allowed. It also doesn’t hurt that Odor is averaging 10.4 FPPG over his last 10 games.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. ARZ – $3,500 – I realize that Carlos Gonzalez is not hitting well as of late. Coming into this game, he’s averaging just 4.4 FPPG over his last 10 games and ended the month of August with a .298 wOBA and a .432 SLG. However, he’s just too cheap tonight even going up against a left-handed pitcher. Away from Coors, I’d stay away from this matchup, but surprisingly at home, Gonzalez owns a .433 wOBA here with a .667 SLG and a 1.003 OPS.
Brad Miller (SS) – TBR vs. TOR – $3,600 – Brad Miller is really trying to defy the logic that Tropicana Field is not a good spot for hitters. Coming into tonight, Miller owns a .375 wOBA at home with a .587 SLG with 17 of his 25 home runs. He faces off against Marcus Stroman tonight, who is allowing a .337 wOBA to lefties on the road with five of his 18 home runs allowed. I’m certainly not against getting some decent power out of someone who will only run me $3,600.
Colby Rasmus (OF) – HOU vs. TEX – $3,600 – Rasmus is back after a stint on the DL and has the luxury of facing A.J. Griffin tonight. Griffin really struggles against left-handed batters and has allowed the majority of his home runs to them. Coming into this start, Griffin has allowed 13 of his 19 home runs with a .387 wOBA and a .585 SLG. Rasmus has been his best against righties on the road with a .345 wOBA and five of his 13 home runs.
Pedro Alvarez (1B) – BAL vs. NYY – $3,800 – If you’re playing in any GPPs tonight, Alvarez could be a nice pivot off of Chris Davis. As I mentioned, Chad Green has been horrific against left-handed batters and Alvarez could be in line for a good game here. Alvarez has hit 11 of his 18 home runs at home against righties this season.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.