Today’s targets will focus on the 10-game slate tonight. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Sean Manaea – OAK at LAA – $7,700 – Manaea over last 30 days: 29.1% K-rate, 3.41 SIERA, 13.6% swinging strike rate. The Angels are 24th in wRC+ over the last 14 days and Angels Stadium has been a bottom ten runs scored field this season.
James Shields – CWS vs. TB – $5,500 – He’s not even close to being Big Game James anymore, but he does have at least 12 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 starts. Few teams struggle on offense the way Tampa Bay does, and the Rays are still whiffing at a 26.4% K-rate over the last 14 days.
Buck Farmer – DET vs. CLE – $4,000 – Cleveland is an entirely different team away from home, and Farmer is coming off an annulled 2.2 IP, 5 K workout that got flushed his last time out. Great stuff (25% K-rate/15% swinging strike rate), a little wild (17.5% walk rate), but plenty of upside for his min price.
Jaime Garcia – STL vs. CIN – $6,800 – Inexpensive favorite with 26.4% K rate over last 30 days against CIN, who is bottom five in wRC+ against LHP this season. The Reds have long since been eliminated and the Cardinals are still fighting for the playoffs.
Khris Davis (OF) – OAK at LAA – $4,400 – Fourth in the projected Oakland lineup against LAA SP Jered Weaver, Davis has a strong 161 wRC+, .288 ISO, .410 wOBA split against RHH on the road since August 1st (69 plate appearances). Weaver has a 5.38 xFIP at home against RHH, with a 1.91 HR/9 IP.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX vs. MIL – $4,100 – Beltran at home against RHP since August 1st has a 163 wRC+, .257 ISO and .425 wOBA. The Rangers have a 5.8 implied run total, too, against MIL SP Garza, who has a 4.97 xFIP against LHH on the road this season.
Domingo Santana (OF) – MIL at TEX – $4,300 – Santana’s splits against LHP on the road are impressive, albeit in short sample (32 PA): 197 wRC+, .379 ISO, .478 wOBA. TEX SP Perez has not been a gas can, but a “manage the damage” SP. However, he does have a 4.55 xFIP and 10.7% K-rate against RHH at home. Santana is also second in the MIL projected lineup.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL at TEX – $4,500 – Chris Carter is hard contact. Since July 1st against LHP on the road (47 PA), he has 52% hard contact to go with his 171 wRC+/.415 ISO/.431 wOBA and has that same nice matchup with Martin Perez.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. CIN – $4,100 – The Cardinals have a 5.3 implied run total against CIN SP Adelman, who has a 4.68 SIERA over his last 30 days and a 2.22 HR/9 IP over the same. Carpenter, since August 1st at home against RHP, has a 164 wRC+, .356 ISO and .413 wOBA.
Kyle Seager (3B) – SEA at HOU – $4,000 – The Mariners have been a top five team this season against RHP and Seager, since August 1st against RHP, has a 140 wRC+ and .258 ISO in split here.
Aledmys Diaz (SS) – STL vs. CIN – $4,600 – He’s come back with a 179 wRC+ against RHP at home over his last 55 plate appearances, along with a .439 wOBA and .239 ISO.
Jonathan Lucroy (CATCH) – TEX vs. MIL – $4,700 – Since August 1st at home against RHP, Lucroy has hit for a .158 wRC+, .250 ISO and .418 wOBA and is projected to bat sixth in that Rangers 5.8 implied run lineup.
Josh Bell (1B/OF) – PIT vs. CHC – $2,200 – Projected to be batting second against CHC Hendricks, Bell has a strong split here of 146 wRC+, .209 ISO, .382 wOBA against Hendricks’ solid, but not impenetrable 3.41 xFIP, which includes a 1.40 HR/9 IP.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs. CLE – $3,400 – This is JDM’s best split, with a 197 wRC+, .273 ISO and .465 wOBA against RHP at home. Corey Kluber is his opponent, but can offer the long ball to RHH on the road, with a 1.56 HR/9 IP in split since July 1st.
Justin Bour (1B) – MIA vs. NYM – $2,700 – Hard to say how the emotional Marlins will come out tonight, but Bour, who has a strong .267 ISO against RHP at home, has the power to go deep against NYM SP Colon, who has struggled all season long against LHH away (5.66 xFIP, 1.85 HR/9 IP, 36% hard contact).
Evan Gattis (CATCH) – HOU vs. SEA – $3,800 – Gattis has a .348 ISO since June 1st against RHP at home and is projected to hit fifth against SEA SP Iwakuma, who has a 5.28 xFIP against RHH on the road.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA at HOU – $3,500 – Smith, over his last 11 games, has a 94 mph exit velocity and 52% hard contact rate. He’s projected to bat second in front of Robinson Cano and the insanely hot Nelson Cruz, bolstering his point scoring status.
Mitch Moreland (1B) – TEX vs. MIL – $2,900 – Moreland has a 48% hard contact rate over his last nine games and is projected to be batting seventh against MIL SP Garza and has a 94 mph exit velocity as well over the same span.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.