These targets will focus on the ten-game slate tonight. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
David Price – BOS at BAL – $10,800 – This is a good matchup for Price, who has a 2.98 SIERA and 28.6% K rate over the last 30 days. Baltimore is 26th against LHP in wRC+ for the season and 27th over the last 14 days overall.
Jeff Samardzija – SFG at SDP – $9,500 – While the Padres have LHH now that can do damage, they have still lagged over the last 14 days, with a 77 wRC+ and 23.7% K rate, while Samardzija has had a 22% K rate over his last 30 days and a 3.77 xFIP against LHH on the road since August 1st (31 IP).
Josh Collmenter – ATL at MIA – $4,400 – Collmenter is a high K upside pitcher against a weaker offense over the last 14 days (Miami, 28th, 66 wRC+) with some K upside (Miami, 21%, last 14 days). Collmenter always had good stuff outside of Chase Field, but control is an issue. Fortunately, the Marlins have a tiny 5.6% walk rate over the last 14 days, also 28th in the league.
Mike Fiers – HOU vs. LAA – $5,600 – The Angels are dead last in wRC+ over the last 14 days, with a 62 rating and a whiffle-bat like .088 ISO over the same span. Meanwhile Fiers, since August 1st at home, has a 4.23 xFIP with a 3.78 xFIP against RHH, which is what he’ll see against the Angels.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET at MIN – $4,100 – Great discount on Martinez here as he has a solid 169 wRC+ since August 1st (62 PA) and .241 ISO in split against MIN SP Ervin Santana and the Tigers with an implied 4.7 runs tonight.
Matt Joyce (OF) – PIT at MIL – $4,100 – Two things odd about this listing. One is that Matt Joyce is usually a value pick, but his price has risen in this matchup in Miller Park against a RHP, where he has a 143 wRC+ and .240 ISO. Second is that the book on Chase Anderson is that he’s a reverse splits guy, but he’s actually given up a 5.26 xFIP with 1.53 HR/9 IP since June 1st (72 batters faced) at home against LHH.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF) – NYM vs. PHI – $5,100 – Great matchup of splits; Cespedes’ 187 wRC+ at home vs. LHP and PHI SP Morgan’s 3.38 HR/9 IP against RHH on the road since June 1st (71 batters faced).
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. PIT – $4,600 – Chris Carter is: Hard Contact. Since August 1st at home against RHP (72 PA), Carter has a 127 wRC+ and .281 ISO with a massive 51.4% hard contact rate.
Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN vs. DET – $4,300 – Getting Dozier at this price feels like such a bargain, given how he’s been going. Even though he faces DET SP Verlander, Dozier has a 262 wRC+, .594 ISO and .563 wOBA against RHP at home since August 1st (71 PA).
Evan Longoria (3B) – TBR vs. NYY – $4,800 – Since August 1st vs. RHP at home (81 PA), Longoria has a terrific 148 wRC+ and .338 ISO in split and gets NYY SP Luis Cessa, who has given up 2.89 HR/9 IP over the last 30 days.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – NYM vs. PHI – $4,600 – See the Cespedes writeup for Morgan’s extreme HR rate against RHH on the road and mix in Cabrera’s 162 wRC+ and .235 ISO in split.
Evan Gattis (CATCH) – HOU vs. LAA – $3,900 – Against RHP at home since July 1st (67 PA), Gattis has a 138 wRC+ and an impressive .377 ISO in split.
Gorkys Hernandez (OF) – SFG at SDP – $2,600 – Power upside punt play here, with a 169 wRC+ and .308 ISO on the road against LHP, and SDP SP Friedrich has a 5.01 xFIP against RHH at home since August 1st (64 batters) with a 1.84 HR/9 IP.
Josh Bell (1B/OF) – PIT and MIL – $3,200 – Mentioned Chase Anderson’s sudden struggles with LHH above in the Joyce area, well, add in Bell’s likely two-slot in the lineup and a 138 wRC+ and 19% walk rate against RHP, and I think we have a solid cash game play.
Yulieski Gurriel – HOU vs. LAA – $2,900 – He’s been batting second, and I believe he’s a good cash game play as Gurriel has a 178 wRC+ against RHP at home this season (24 PA) and the Astros have an implied 4.9 run total tonight.
Yasmani Grandal – LAD vs. COL – $3,200 – Against RHP at home this season (165 at-bats), Grandal has a 161 wRC+ and a massive .372 ISO in split. The Dodgers have an implied 4.7 run total, and Grandal should be batting fifth for the offensive show.
Justin Upton (OF) – DET at MIN – $3,700 – Upton, against RHP on the road since August 1st (58 PA), has a 144 wRC+ and .377 ISO and should be batting sixth behind J.D. Martinez tonight.
Andrew Benintendi (OF) – BOS at BAL – $3,100 – Benintendi is sixth in the projected Boston lineup tonight and has a 163 wRC+ and .293 ISO against RHP on the road this season (42 PA).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.