Tonight’s main slate is 13 games. Make sure you take a few extra moments today to check lineups and news due to some of the moves that took place yesterday, as well as the impact of September roster expansion. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs. SD – $13,500 – I typically wouldn’t blink at this price for Kershaw against the Padres, but I don’t think it’s a wise play today. I’m listing him as a “stud” because I think he’s clearly better than the other pitchers priced around him, but with a pitch limit likely limiting his upside tonight, I think there are better ways to allocate your funds. This is more an indictment on the other $11,000+ arms than it is an endorsement for Clayton Kershaw.
Other Options – Gerrit Cole ($11,100)
Mike Clevinger – CLE vs. DET – $8,200 – Rather than paying up, I prefer the middle tier on this slate, with my favorite of the pack being Mike Clevinger. He’s been up and down over the past month, but he’s coming off of a nice start against Kansas City, and he’s facing a hollow Tigers lineup in the second game of a double-header. I think he’s a strong cash game play in this spot.
Other Options – Jimmy Nelson ($8,400), Blake Snell ($8,100)
Gary Sanchez – NYY vs. BOS – $4,600 – Our value catcher could be the uber-chalk today, so getting a possibly overlooked Gary Sanchez is worth considering. Doug Fister has been surprisingly efficient for the Sox, but Sanchez has shown massive power upside against right-handed pitching this season with a .372 wOBA and .226 ISO.
Chris Iannetta – ARI vs. COL – $3,500 – I shy away from calling anyone an auto-play, but Chris Iannetta should be very popular in cash games. On the road in Colorado and penciled into the No. 2 spot in the Diamondbacks’ lineup against a left-hander, Iannetta is set up for both volume of at-bats and is tied to a strong implied-team total at 6.1 runs.
Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. COL – $5,600 – If our starting pitching options in the middle tier come through, we’ll be able to spend up at some positions offensively, and getting exposure to Coors Field is almost always +EV. Paul Goldschmidt has to catch your attention when he’s in Colorado against a left-hander, even though Kyle Freeland has pitched well at times this season. Particularly, I think this is the play in cash games.
Other Options – Joey Votto ($4,700), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,500)
Lucas Duda – TB vs. CWS – $3,900 – The Rays have one of the highest implied-team totals on the slate, and on the whole, their offense is pretty affordable. Hitting second, Lucas Duda jumps out as a viable play against RHP Reynaldo Lopez. Duda has a strong hard-hit rate on the season, and it’s a strong park shift for him and his teammates playing in Chicago.
Other Options – Jose Abreu ($4,100)
Jose Ramirez – CLE vs. DET – $4,700 – Jose Ramirez’s 2017 season has been outstanding, and his ability to crush both left- and right-handed pitching makes him a great play in DFS because he’s not as susceptible to platoon splits as most of his peers. You can play him at second or third, and he has enough upside for tournaments while being a high floor guy for cash games.
Other Options – Jonathan Schoop ($4,600)
Brandon Drury – COL vs. ARI – $3,400 – We typically see a more aggressive price point for everyone — even the Brandon Drury’s of the world — when they’re in Coors. That’s not the case here for some reason. Drury has flashed some power upside during his young career against left-handed pitching, and he’s slotted behind Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez in Arizona’s lineup.
Nolan Arenado – COL vs. ARI – $5,100 – I’d be fine with paying more for Nolan Arenado when he’s at home against a flyball pitcher like Taijuan Walker, so this feels like a bit of a discount. He enters play in good form as well, with a hard-hit rate of 44% over the past two weeks, up from his season mark of 37%.
Other Options – Manny Machado ($5,300), Adrian Beltre ($4,500)
Matt Davidson – CWS vs. TB – $3,600 – Matt Davidson is a three true outcomes bat, especially against left-handed pitching. He swings and misses quite a bit, but when he connects, he’s shown massive power potential. His .226 ISO against left-handed pitching is worth a look in tournaments if you’re looking to fade Coors.
Elvis Andrus – TEX vs. LAA – $4,500 – Another viable target if you’re looking to fade Coors is the game in Arlington, Texas. The Rangers have a healthy 5.3 implied-team total, and Elvis Andrus should be able to deliver from the three-hole in Texas’ lineup. His speed offers us a bit of stolen base upside as well, and his ability to hit both lefties and righties makes him a strong play in cash games.
Other Options – Francisco Lindor ($5,100), Trey Turner ($4,900)
Andrelton Simmons – LAA vs. TEX – $3,800 – The Angels have made a few moves to solidify themselves as Wild Card contenders this week, and they’re benefiting from a sizable park shift here on Friday on the road in Texas. Andrelton Simmons is set to hit leadoff, which is something we always like in cash games since it gives us the certainty of nine innings of at-bats.
Other Options – Trevor Story ($3,700)
J.D. Martinez – ARI vs. COL – $5,200 – What J.D. Martinez is doing to left-handed pitching this season should be illegal. He missed the start of the season, but he’s been on a roll ever since, and the move to Arizona only helped catapult his production into a new level. His sample size against lefties is small this season, but he’s done this for a number of years now. His .493 ISO vs LHP this season is hard to ignore when he’s facing a lefty in Coors.
Other Options – Mike Trout ($5,500), Charlie Blackmon ($5,500)
Rhys Hoskins – PHI vs. MIA – $4,400 – This is a good spot to get in on the suddenly cooling Hoskins. He’s facing a young left-hander, Dillon Peters, who didn’t miss many bats in the minors and profiles as a bit of a flyball pitcher as well. His ownership could be at its lowest point in weeks.
Other Options – Carlos Gonzalez ($3,100)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.