Today’s targets will focus on the super-short, three-game slate tonight, so there will be fewer targets than normal. Let’s goooo! Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72

Pitchers

MLB: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

Stud

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. MIA – $9,000 – So much better at home this season, where his K-rate is 29.5% and xFIP 3.20. The Marlins aren’t a particularly ‘whiffy’ bunch, at 18% for the season against RHP, but they aren’t sluggers, either, with a third worst .133 ISO this season against RHP, and that includes Giancarlo Stanton. Over the last seven days, that ISO has been .096.

Value

Mike Montgomery – CHC vs. SFG – $4,000 – The LHP has enjoyed a 28.1% K rate over the last 30 days, and while that’s accompanied by a hefty 14% walk rate, too, it’s the 11.30 K/9 IP and the min price that grabs my attention here. The Giants are well know ball-in-players, but for all but Buster Posey, this is their worst split, vs. LHP on the road.


Batters

MLB: Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Studs

Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM vs. MIA – $4,200 – The Grandy Man is back to his power hitting ways, with a massive 362 expected power rating over his last five games (100 is average) and facing MIA SP Urena, who is miserable against LH bats, with 1.46 HR/9 IP and a 5.20xFIP in split. Granderson has also smashed 60% hard contact over the past two weeks.

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – NYM vs. MIA – $4,700 – Another lefty Met bat against Urena, this time it’s Cabrera, who has posted a 240 expected power over his last six games and a 52% hard contact rating over the last two weeks himself.

Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN vs. CHW – $5,200 – With zero expensive pitching, a $5.2K price tag on the lefty bashing Dozier at home isn’t daunting. Dozier has a .310 ISO against LHP at home and a 156 wRC+. He should be batting first in this matchup against steady, but vulnerable against RH bats on the road CHW SP Quintana.

Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC vs. SFG – $5,100SFG SP Samardzija is bad against LH bats on the road, giving up 2.06 HR/9 IP, a 5.04 xFIP and seeing his K rate plummet to 12.6%. Rizzo knocks around RHP just fine at home, with a 141 wRC+ against RHP at home.

Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) – CHC vs. SFG – $4,300 – His results haven’t been there (2 for his last 17), but the contact has; a 42% hard contact rate over the last two weeks and a 249 expected power over his last six games say progression is coming in a good split against the aforementioned SFG SP Samardzija.

Yoenis Cespedes (OF) – NYM vs. MIA – $5,000 – He’s hitting very well against RHP at home (145 wRC+, .287 ISO), and he has been hot lately as well, with a 189 expected power over his past 23 at-bats.

Values

Robbie Grossman (OF) – MIN vs. CHW – $3,600 – Make sure he’s in the lineup after battling an oblique injury, but Robbie has an insane split of 205 wRC+ with a .226 ISO at home against LHP, where he usually will bat second in split.

Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN vs. CHW – $3,300 – Sano has been off the rails lately, but this is too good a split to let go, as he’s a 133 wRC+ and .250 ISO against LHP at home. He should be in the middle of what is likely to be a productive lineup tonight, relative to the slate.

Trevor Plouffe (1B/3B) – MIN vs. CHW – $3,500 – Finally, there’s Plouffe, who’s the hottest of all the Twins listed here, power wise. Plouffe has a 202 expected power over his last six games and a 37% hard contact rate.

Alex Avila (CATCH) – CHW at MIN – $2,900 – Good against RHP, Avila has also been hitting the ball hard lately, with a 413 expected power over his past 10 at-bats and 66% hard contact rate over the same span.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.