Today’s targets will focus on the ten-game slate tonight, which features some surprisingly challenging starting pitching decisions above the $8K line and hitters in great spots, like Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Madison Bumgarner – SFG at LAD – $12,600 – High price to pay, but if you are going above $8K tonight, here’s the least amount of offensive resistance. The Dodgers are dead last against LHP in wRC+ this season and Bumgarner has a nice 3.19 SIERA w/a 27.5% K rate and only 4.6% walk rate over the last 30 days.
Noah Syndergaard – NYM vs. ATL – $11,600 – Pitching at home and hovering between 25-30 DKPPG over his last few starts, Noah has a 3.41 SIERA and 27.9% K-rate over his last 30 days. The Braves are rough, #1 in fact over the last 30 days in wRC+, but Noah has tamed the Nationals, Giants and Diamondbacks recently, providing some faith he can also take care of the Braves.
AJ Cole – WAS at MIA – $7,400 – Miami has the second worst wRC+ over the last 14 days, their Ks are at an average 20%, but are below 5% walk rate. Cole has a 25.4% K-rate over his last 30 days and an alright-for-the-slate 4.00 SIERA over the same and gets
Clayton Richard – SDP vs. ARI – $4,000 – Min priced for a SP who has posted 20.5 (vs. ARI), 20.4 (at MIA), 11.3 (at LAD), 31.0 (vs. COL) and 6.4 (at SFG) over his last five starts, totaling a 3.53 SIERA, fourth best starting pitcher SIERA on the slate.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. STL – $4,900 – CarGo has been off, even at home, over the last two months, but below $5K, against an RHP, he’s a great play in my opinion batting third in a 5.7 implied run total.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX vs. LAA – $4,400 – Don’t let the recent stats of LAA SP Chacin fool you, he’s struggled as a SP this season, even if his relief pitching numbers help out his recent trends. He’s given up, since June 1st as a SP, a 5.85 xFIP against LHH this season.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA at TEX – $4,700 – Great spot for Trout, in a hitter’s environment, against a LHP who struggles against RHH, and Trout is hitting 231 wRC+ and .333 ISO in split.
Albert Pujols (1B) – LAA at TEX – $4,300 – Pujols, too, is in this spot, and he’s compiled a 198 wRC+ and .333 ISO against LHH on the road since August 1st.
Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SDP vs. ARI – $4,500 – Nice combination of ARI SP Shipley’s 2.89 HR/9 IP against LHH away from home and Schimpf’s 151 wRC+/.351 ISO/.389 wOBA at home against RHP this season.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF) – CHC at CIN – $4,800 – The Cubs have an implied 5.9 runs and Bryant, batting near the top of the lineup, has a strong 150 wRC+/.279 ISO here and faces CIN SP Adelman, who has a 2.67 HR/9 IP over the last 30 days and a 5.08 SIERA over that span as well.
Xander Bogaerts (SS) – BOS at BAL – $4,700 – Had to mention a Boston representative in here against BAL SP Bundy, who has struggled mightily over the last 30 days, carrying a 5.09 SIERA, 1.82 HR/9 IP and a brutal 15% walk rate into a matchup against the best vs. RHP of the season.
Jonathan Lucroy (CATCH) – TEX vs. LAA – $5,000 – I don’t think he’ll be very popular, and in 41 plate appearances since August 1st against RHP at home, he’s got a 194 wRC+ and .286 ISO in a very high-scoring affair.
*Yulieski Gurriel (1B/3B) – HOU at OAK – $2,900 * – A reverse split hitter (142 wRC+), Gurriel is projected to bat second against OAK SP Cotton, who has a 5.88 SIERA over his last 30 days and 3.75 K/IP.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA vs. TOR – $3,500 – Batting second at home against a RHP, Smith has a nice 191 wRC+ and .352 ISO against RHP at home since July 1st (80 plate appearances) and TOR SP Estrada has a 4.87 SIERA over his last 30 days.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. BOS – $3,700 – BOS SP Porcello has not been someone to target hitters with, but this is the sweetest of splits that is BAL vs. RHP at home. Trumbo’s split since July 1 (87 PA): 163 wRC+/.420 wOBA/.440 ISO.
Jefry Marte (1B/3B) – LAA at TEX – $3,700 – One last Angel here as Marte has a 155 wRC+ and .267 ISO split against LHP on the road – the Angels have a 4.8 implied run total in this game tonight as well.
*Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs. BOS – $3,800 * – Since August 1st, he’s hitting 166 wRC+ and .434 ISO against RHP at home. The Orioles only have a 4.3 implied run total against Rick Porcello, but Davis gives that double-home run upside needed in tourneys tonight.
Tom Murphy (CATCH) – COL vs. STL – $3,000 – Murphy has been doing well, including a 2-HR game his last time out. Overall, in a small sample against RHP, he’s popping a .481 ISO and should be in the 7-slot against STL.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.