Tonight’s targets breaks down some players to consider on the 8 game MLB slate. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Rich Hill – LAD at ARI – $12,000 – Hill carries some risk for two reasons: One is that the Diamondbacks are on fire at home right now, and two is that Hill is famous for not going too deep in the game. However, the K upside is here, Hill has a 31% K-rate over last 30 days with just a 3.1% walk rate. For good measure, Arizona whiffs 23% of the time against LHP.
J.A. Happ – TOR at LAA – $8,300 – Don’t love Happ, but the other options are more expensive and in just as shaky a spot. At least Happ is a sizable favorite (-168), and has the K upside (21.5% K rate over the last 30) to provide some upside.
Mike Montgomery – CHC vs. MIL – $4,700 – Won’t need much here at just $4,700, and Monty has a 24% K rate at home (26% at home vs RHB) and the Brewers whiff 24% against LHP and 25% on the road.
Blake Snell – TB at BAL – $5,500 – Snell has scuffled recently with control, but the K upside is present at 24% over his last 30 days. The Orioles, while being at home, are not great against LHP, where they are fourth worst in the league in wRC+ and strike out 22% of the time.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF) – CHC vs. MIL – $4,700 – Middle of a Cubs lineup with a 5.1 implied run total against MIL SP Nelson, with a 4.46 xFIP against RHB on the road and Bryant’s 140 wRC+ at home against RHP.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TB at BAL – $4,300 – Dickerson has a 154 wRC+ and .357 ISO on the road against RHP, is in a hitters park in BAL, and gets Yovani Gallardo, who has a 5.67 xFIP at home against LHB this season.
Joc Pederson (OF) – LAD at ARI – $4,500 – Lighting a candle that Joc Jamz gets to hit further up in the lineup tonight since he’s caught fire in September against RHP on the road (220 wRC+/.479 ISO in 16 Pas). Joc will go into Chase Field against SP Bradley, who has a 5.39 xFIP against LHB at home since July 1st with 1.79 HR/9 IP.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR at LAA – $4,800 – Encarnacion leads an implied five run charge in LAA tonight against Daniel Wright, who has struggled initially, with an 8.00+ xFIP against RHB at home in a small sample.
Dustin Pedroia (2B) – BOS vs. NYY – $4,300 – Since August 1st against RHP at home, he has a 190 wRC+ and the Red Sox have a healthy 4.5 implied run total against NYY SP Tanaka.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TB at BAL – $4,200 – Going against BAL SP Gallardo, Longoria and the Rays have a 4.5 implied run total and Evan has a solid 127 wRC+ against RHP on the road this season.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD at ARI – $5,500 – With the value at pitching, you’ll be able to pay up for Seager, who is well positioned hitting in Arizona, and rocking a 168 wRC+ against RHP on the road.
Yasmani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD at ARI – $3,900 – Love the Dodgers tonight, with a 5.6 implied run total, and Grandal has tattooed righties on the road, with a .315 ISO and 143 wRC+.
Chase Utley (2B) – LAD at ARI – $3,600 – Ok, one more Dodger. Utley should be leading off and getting 5-6 AB tonight in Chase Field, with that matchup against ARI SP Bradley and an above average 113 wRC+ in the split.
Josh Bell (1B/OF) – PIT at PHL – $2,700 – PHI SP Eickhoff has a problem against LHB at home, giving up a 5.81 xFIP and 2.21 HR/ 9 IP. Bell has a solid 134 wRC+ in split here and has been batting second against RHP for the Pirates.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL at SF – $3,400 – Moss gives you upside for a cheap price here, as he has a .309 ISO against RHP on the road and SFG SP Cueto has actually pitched worse at home 4.00+ xFIP there.
Ryan Howard (1B) – PHI vs. PIT – $3,300 – Howard has erupted at home against RHP this summer, with a 170 wRC+ and .400 ISO in 60 plate appearances since July 1st.
Jett Bandy (CATCH) – LAA vs. TOR – $2,400 – Cheap catcher punt with power upside at home, where he has a .273 ISO in that split this season.
Brandon Crawford (SS) – SFG vs. STL – $3,700 – STL SP Wainwright has been struggling more against LHB on the road lately, with 2 HR/9 IP since July 1st and Crawford has solid splits here while batting 4th lately with 120 wRC+ and .250 ISO in that split (home, vs. RHP, batting 4th, since August 1st).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.