These targets will focus on the 10-game slate tonight, which features very challenging pitching decisions, and some interesting priced down stacks. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Carlos Rodon – CWS vs. CLE = $8,700 – Rodon has been great pitching at home this season and even better recently, with a 3.33 xFIP and 25.5% K rate at home over the last three starts.
Jose Fernandez – MIA at ATL – $13,000 – Not great at this price because it’s hard to see how you’re going to get to 3x at his salary. However, on this slate, with few great pitching options, getting 2x out of Fernandez would be a great thing, and he can do that with his 10.38 K/9 IP rate away from Marlins Park since August 1st.
Joe Musgrove – HOU vs. TEX – $6,500 – 20% K rate against a Rangers team that also whiffs 21% of the time away from home. The Rangers only have a four run implied total, the fourth lowest of the slate.
Sean Manaea – OAK at KCR – $7,600 – Kansas City is 21st against LHP in wRC+ this season and they have struck out 20% of the time against southpaws. Manaea, since August 1st on the road, has a 3.69 xFIP and 22.2% K-rate.
David Dahl (OF) – COL at ARI – $4,200 – Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon are all in play for me in a hitter’s park (Chase Field) against a RHP in Rubby de la Rosa, who has a 5.91 xFIP with 19% walk rate at home against LHH.
Max Kepler (OF) – MIN at DET – $4,300 – Since July 1st, Kepler has a 158 wRC+ and .358 ISO against RHP on the road. DET SP Anibal Sanchez augments this well with a 4.93 xFIP against LHB at home since August 1st.
George Springer (OF) – HOU vs. TEX – $3,600 – I’m not sure I get what’s going on with TEX SP Derek Holland as all the Astros bats are priced way down despite having a ton of RHB, like Springer.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL at BOS – $4,200 – Davis’ best split (138 wRC+/.306 ISO) meets with what is BOS SP Porcello’s relatively worst split (4.06 xFIP, 38% hard contact).
Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN at DET – $5,500 – Just keeps rolling, three hits, including a double and a walk last night and has a 184 wRC+ and .341 ISO over the last 30 days against RHP on the road.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARI vs. COL – $4,900 – Faces COL RHP Hoffman tonight- since July 1st (107 plate appearances) he has a 166 wRC+ and .381 ISO against RHP at home.
Jonathan Villar (SS/3B) – MIL at CIN – $4,800 – Villar has a great ballpark (Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati) and has been hitting RHP well on the road (faces CIN SP Adelman tonight). Since August 1st (70 plate appearances), Villar has a 150 wRC+ and .196 ISO.
Welington Castillo (CATCH) – ARI vs. COL – $4,100 – Not the best split for Castillo, but faces COL SP Hoffman, who has a 6.26 SIERA this season and Castillo has been batting in the middle of a strong Diamondbacks lineup.
Robinson Cano (2B) – SEA at LAA – $3,900 – Cano has been better against RHP on the road this season, with a 170 wRC+ and .301 ISO in that split. LAA SP Chacin has a 4.88 xFIP in LAA as a SP with 39% hard contact.
Josh Bell (1B/OF) – PIT at PHI – $3,300 – Since coming up, Bell has a 146 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP on the road (34 plate appearances). PHI SP Thompson has a 4.60 xFIP and 16% walk rate against LHB at home this season.
Yulieski Gurriel (3B/1B) – HOU vs. TEX – $2,300 – He’s better against RHP, but that doesn’t mean he’s bad against LHP. He has a 120 wRC+ and .182 ISO there plus he’s been batting fourth or fifth in the lineup.
Scott Schebler (OF) – CIN vs. MIL – $3,300 – Since the Jay Bruce trade, Schebler has a 164 wRC+ at home against RHP. Tonight’s RHP is MIL SP Guerra, who gives up 40% hard contact to LHB.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA at LAA – $3,200 – In the last two weeks, Smith has popped, going for a 229 wRC/.455 ISO in his last 25 plate appearances, including a grand slam last night in LAA.
Evan Gattis (CATCH) – HOU vs. TEX – $3,300 – Gattis has a 124 wRC+ and .275 ISO against LHP at home this season and is expected to bat sixth tonight against TEX SP Holland.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.