These targets will focus on the full 15-game slate tonight, which has an interesting array of pitching options and not a single game projected under eight runs. Should be fun! Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
David Price – BOS vs. BAL – $10,700 – Folks are going to look at the Orioles, the seventh best offense of the past 14 days, with all those power RH bats, and be wary of David Price, who himself hasn’t been a headline grabber this season. However, those Orioles RH bats have been weak against LHP this season, fourth worst in fact in wRC+ (81) and strike out nearly 22% of the time. Meanwhile, Price has been on track; over the last 30 days he’s turned in a 3.53 SIERA, 26% K-rate with walks down at 5.4%. The weather should be cool and BOS is a favorite to win tonight.
Francisco Liriano – TOR vs. TBR – $8,300 – Let’s chase some K’s here if we’re staying above the $8K line and go with Liriano. He has been known to frustrate with his walk rate (10% over last 30 days), but he has the Ks going right now (30.4%) and the Rays have bats that will whiff against LHP (25.3%).
Gerrit Cole – PIT at PHI – $7,700 – Gerrit Cole is not the dominant, ace pitcher, at least not yet, that people projected onto him. However, he does have more than enough stuff to take advantage of the moribund Phillies attack, who is dead last in wRC+ over the last 14 days AND the most Ks as well (28.2%).
Keyvius Sampson – CIN vs. MIL – $4,000 – He’s stretching out of the pen, so there’s risk of a short outing, especially considering his walk rates, but he has the K-upside to go after the Brewers’ swing and miss bats (25% over last 14 days).
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL at ARI – $4,800 – All three Rockies OF are in play here against ARI SP Shelby Miller in my opinion, who has a 6.35 xFIP and 1.80 HR/9 IP at home against LHH this season.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. SEA – $5,500 – SEA SP Miranda has a 7.68 xFIP, -6.1% K-BB% against RHH away from Safeco this season. Trout has a 150 wRC+ against LHP this season and 236 since August 1st.
Mookie Betts (OF) – BOS vs. BAL – $5,000 – Betts gets BAL LHP Miley today in Fenway, and his stats in split are 218 wRC+, .542 ISO, 3.8% K rate since July 1st.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. TBR – $4,400 – Price is lower due to matchup with TBR SP Odorizzi, but have to like Edwin’s 163 wRC+ and .313 ISO at home against RHP at this price.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. CHC – $3,900 – CHC SP Hendricks has been pitching well, but Carpenter, since August 1st, has a 206 wRC+ and .513 ISO in 43 PAs against RHP at home.
Jefry Marte (3B/1B) – LAA vs. SEA – $4,200 – Marte, with the same plus matchup against SEA SP Miranda as discussed above, since August 1st, has a 193 wRC+ and .381 ISO in split tonight.
Jonathan Villar (SS/3B) – MIL at CIN – $4,200 – Villar has all the fire recently, with a 142 wRC+ and .407 ISO since September 1st and a 4.4 run implied total, along with the visitor’s guaranteed 9th inning at-bats.
Yasmani Grandal (CATCH) – LAD at NYY – $4,000 – Great confluence of factors here: Grandal, on the road against RHP since August 1st is 157 wRC+ and .348 ISO, 62% FB rate against an extreme GB pitcher in NYY SP Mitchell and the best LH HR ballpark in the league in Yankee Stadium.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. TBR – $3,800 – Don’t often find Bautista in the Discounts Aisle, but $3.8K at home puts him here, in the middle of the order with a 5.1 implied run total and a solid 117 wRC+ at home against RHP over the last 30 days.
Yulieski Gurriel (3B/1B) – HOU vs. TEX – $2,700 – Gurriel has begun to get comfortable, with a 152 wRC+ and .214 ISO against LHP over the last 14 days, should be batting fifth, and the Astros have a 4.9 implied run total tonight.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL vs. CHC – $3,000 – Moss is a consistent hard contact bat, with 60% hard contact against RHP at home since September 1st and provides a huge upside bat for only $3K in his prime split.
Victor Martinez (1B) – DET vs. MIN – $3,300 – Batting fourth, most likely, in a 4.9 implied run total at home against RHP Santana, Martinez has a .354 wOBA/.200 ISO against RHP this season.
Aaron Hill (2B/3B) – BOS vs. BAL – $2,700 – Since August 1st, against LHP, Hill has produced a 147 wRC+ and .399 wOBA. The Red Sox face BAL SP Wade Miley and have a 5.6 implied run total tonight.
Scooter Gennett (2B) – MIL at CIN – $2,900 – Batting second in 4.4 implied run total against against RHP and has a 42% fly ball rate over last two weeks.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.