Happy Monday! There’s a full-on 13-game slate, so let’s shake off whatever happened over the weekend (I won’t say anything), get our studs and values identified and try to get back to the winner’s circle tonight. Let’s do this!
COORS FIELD ALERT: There is a Diamondbacks/Rockies series kicking off today, so I’ll limit myself to one stud and two value hitters from this game. But, as in all games at Coors, check the lineups and roster/fade as appropriate. Carry on…
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. MIL – $11,300 – He has the highest projected strikeouts, second lowest runs scored against (3.0) and the Brewers are 23rd in road offense this season, with nearly 24% K rate against a SP that has a 33% K-rate himself.
Jon Lester – CHC vs. SD – $11,800 – San Diego has a 29% K-rate on the road and 27% against LHP, putting Lester, who has the lowest projected runs scored against (2.8) and favorite to win (-233), in a good position to go deep into the game and accrue big fantasy points.
Matt Moore – TB vs. SEA – $7,600 – Not thrilled with the value options on the slate, so looking for the higher Ks to make points work down here. Felix Hernandez is the favorite at home, but the Mariners are bottom at home and against LHP and have a decent enough K-rate (20% in those situations) to make Moore’s 12% swinging strike rate work tonight.
“Target Field is a top 10 pitchers park so far this season”
Jose Berrios – MIN vs. BAL – $7,000 – Tournament play only here – going with the high stuff upside at home, though the Orioles are not offensive pushovers. They do, however, strike out 24% of the time on the road, and Target Field is a top 10 pitchers park so far this season.
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Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. ARI – $5,000 – Batting against ARI SP Bradley (.407 wOBA vs. RHP) at home, where he has put up a .472 wOBA against RHP, Gonzalez is a solid play, even at the inflated salary of $5K.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ MIN – $4,200 – Davis has a .417 wOBA and a .343 ISO vs. RHP and MIN SP Berrios is giving up 1.9 HR/9 IP, highlighting Davis as a double-home run candidate tonight.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. DET – $4,800 – Harper is amazing against RHP (.475 wOBA, .355 ISO), and with a ton of salaries rising today, suddenly Harper sits as the 12th most expensive hitter despite a sweet split setup and against Anibal Sanchez, who gives up 1.79 HR/9 IP.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ SFG – $4,400 – Very affordable high end slugger with great splits (.396 wOBA/.299 ISO) against RHP and getting Jake Peavy, who has a .327 wOBA against RH bats and a high 94 mph avg exit velocity with 48% hard hit factor over his last couple of starts.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR @ SFG – $4,300 – Same as Bautista above, Encarnacion is back from his mid $3Ks valley, but is still a solid play against Jake Peavy in a 4.2 run forecasted game for the Jays.
Brandon Belt (1B) – SFG vs. TOR – $4,300 – Belt (.367 wOBA, .210 ISO vs. RHP) is likely to bat fourth against Aaron Sanchez, who has a .366 wOBA vs. LH bats. Belt is hitting the ball well recently, with a 188 expected power (on a 100 is average scale) over his last seven games.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. CHW – $3,900 – Mazara has a .419 wOBA vs. RHP and White Sox SP Miguel Gonzalez is terrible against both lefties and righties, but .360 wOBA against LH bats, specifically.
Justin Bour (1B) – MIA vs. MIL – $3,400 – Bour is great at home against RHP (.378 at home vs. RHP last season) and has a very positive matchup against Wily Peralta (.386 wOBA vs. RHP).
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TB @ SEA – $3,000 – Going against Felix Hernandez, Dickerson’s salary is very low at $3K, and especially low considering the slate. Dickerson has a .392 wOBA/.302 ISO split against RHP.
Chris Herrmann (CATCH) – ARI vs. COL – $3,100 – Herrmann would be a great play in Coors Field, bringing his high power metrics (287 expected power) against COL SP Tyler Chatwood.
“Herrmann would be a great play in Coors Field…”
Derek Dietrich (2B/3B) – MIA vs. MIL – $3,400 – .381 wOBA and .241 ISO for DD, who should be in the middle of the order for the Marlins against MIL SP Peralta and that .386 wOBA against LH bats.
Ben Paulsen (1B) – COL vs. ARI – $3,300 – Paulsen has not been great in getting a shot against RHP this season, but if he starts, this salary makes him a strong play and take advantage of the .407 wOBA from Bradley against LH bats.