Greetings Gamers! We have a nice eight game slate ahead of us with the first pitch at 7:05pm ET. Let’s waste no time and get to the analysis!
Chris Sale – CHW vs MIN – $12,900 – This play makes me a little nervous, so be careful before blindly plugging Sale into your lineups. Over the last two seasons, Minnesota has been a middle-of-the-pack team against southpaws so they are not pushovers. Sale’s strikeout rate this season is just 0.88 per inning which pales in comparison to last year’s 1.31 and his career 1.13. Additionally, the current Twinkies hitters have managed a very respectable .281/.327/.416 slash line in 231 at bats which considering Sale’s bona fides, is actually making me shy away from him tonight. While the ChiSox are favorites, something is holding me back from rolling Sale out across the board tonight.
James Shields – SDP vs NYM – $8,600 -The stud pitching leaves a lot to be desired on Saturday night, and with so many potential traps, just finding two pitchers that can approach 20 DraftKings points is challenging. Shields strikeout rate is down to 0.66 per inning which is a far cry from last season’s magical 1.06 but more in line with his career 0.86. As long as he can work around the Mets batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate, he is a reasonable option.
Bartolo Colon – NYM at SDP – $7,300 – Colon turns 43 in two weeks, and here I am trusting him and his one pitch as the best price/production option on Saturday night. This is mostly due to the matchup with the San Diego Padres and their woeful collection of hitters. Since the beginning of 2014, their current batters rank 29th in the league with an 87 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park factors and creates a league-wide scoring baseline of 100) meaning that they have scored 13% less efficiently than the average team against right-handed pitching during that time frame. They also have the fourth highest strikeout rate at 21.9%, and with the Mets currently -140 road favorites for the victory, this is really a great option for all formats.
Jake Odorizzi – TBR at LAA – $7,800 – The Halos are scoring 3.69 runs per game which is the 22nd lowest figure in the league this season. This year the Angels have a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and while they only strike out 16.5% of the time (second lowest in the league) they do not have a lot of pop in their bats either. While this is not the most sexy play, at least Odorizzi does not have to face an AL East team of sluggers tonight.
Joey Votto (1B) – CIN vs MIL – $4,000 – RHP Jimmy Nelson really has struggled against hitters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate, allowing a .364 wOBA and a 1.61 HR/9 over the last 400 hitters he has faced. This is a really sweet price point for Votto who is a fine play in all formats tonight.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs TBR – $4,900 – While I am going to have RHP Jake Odorizzi on some of my rosters, I do think that Trout is an elite tournament option as so many gamers have completely written off the Halos. Over his last 958 at bats against right-handed pitching, Trout has tallied a .407 wOBA and a .290 ISO.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA vs PHI – $5,200 – Sticking with the big boppers, Stanton is definitely in play tonight against RHP Jeremy (S)Hellickson. In his last 730 at bats against same-handed pitching, the batter formerly known as Mike has manufactured a .389 wOBA and a .280 ISO culminating in 56 home runs.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA at HOU – $4,500 – Noted lefty killer Nelly Cruz has posted an eye-popping .303 ISO in his last 340 at bats against southpaws to go with a .443 wOBA and a 190 wRC+ (meaning he creates 90% more runs than the average batter when facing left-handed pitching). The numbers speak for themselves.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL at CIN – $4,300 – LHP Brandon Finnegan has actually been decent over his last ten starts with a 6-3 record and a 4.30 ERA despite a 5.09 xFIP. The Regression Monster is coming, and he is very hungry. Carter has multi-home run upside and is a phenomenal tournament play in the Great American SMALLpark.
Jose Altuve (2B) – HOU vs SEA – $5,000 – A lot of gamers may not want to pay the premium for Altuve, but he has certainly earned this lofty price tag. He is somehow tied for the American League home run lead with nine, and that is more than he has hit in any of his six seasons with the exception of last year’s fifteen. He has also managed to steal ten bases which leads all of Major League Baseball.
Carlos Correa (SS) – HOU vs SEA – $4,400 – Correa is in his second season and already one of the game’s top shortstops. In 350 at bats against same-handed pitching he has produced a .372 wOBA and an elite .220 ISO. The Astros are once again in play as a tournament stack.
Corey Dickerson (OF) – TBR at LAA – $3,300 – Dickerson is essentially free at this price point. Over his last 575 at bats in lefty/righty matchups he has compiled a .409 wOBA and a .290 ISO. Yes, being a former Rocky did help inflate these numbers, but his 149 wRC+ shows that he creates nearly 50% more runs than the average hitter when ball park factors are taken into account.
Brett Wallace – (1B/3B) – SDP vs NYM – $3,000 – There is a very good chance we see Wallace batting cleanup against RHP Bartolo Colon, and despite being a part-time player over the last couple seasons, Wallace boasts a .390 wOBA and a.240 ISO against right-handed pitching in his most recent 100 at bats.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA at HOU – $2,800 – This is a nice contrarian play as most gamers have not yet caught on that Gutierrez is a fine wingman for Nelson Cruz when the Mariners are facing left-handed pitching. In his last 129 at bats against southpaws, Gutierrez has accumulated a .396 wOBA and a .256 ISO with a .934 OPS. Enjoy the discount!
Derek Dietrich (2B/3B) – $3,200 – While we thankfully are not docked for poor glove work in daily fantasy baseball, the Marlins have to keep rolling out Double D in the absence of the suspended Dee Gordon. Since the beginning of 2014, Dietrich has compiled a .368 wOBA and a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Andres Blanco (2B/3B) – $2,600 – If Blanco makes it into the Phillies lineup, we would be smart to get him in ours at this incredibly low price point. In his last 196 at bats against right-handed pitching he has produced a .351 wOBA and a .210 ISO, and with the savings he provides, we can make a lot of different lineup construction strategies happen.
David Peralta (OF) – ARZ at ATL – $3,200 – Peralta has struggled somewhat to start the season; however, RHP Julio Teheran has been getting decimated by left-handed hitters allowing a monstrous .383 wOBA since the beginning of 2015.
Lucas Duda (1B) – NYM at SDP – $3,900 – Duda’s power plays in any park and with RHP James Shields proclivity for home runs, we would be well served to look to one of the Mets’ lefties as a one-off play or even a mini-stack if you are not rolling with Shields as one of your pitchers. Neil Walker (2B) – $3,800 and Michael Conforto (OF) – $3,500 round out the discounted options in play.