It’s travel day in the MLB, but there’s still a strong nine-game slate tonight. Let’s take a look at our studs and values and try to forgive and forget the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s do this!
Jacob deGrom – NYM @ SD – $11,400 – San Diego is still the second worst wOBA offense in the league, and deGrom has them in Petco, a top 10 pitchers park. In his last two starts, he’s yielded on 21% hard hits and a solid 87 mph exit velocity. Mix in with a 12% swinging strike rate and San Diego’s 26% K-rate and he’s a cash game lock here.
Jaime Garcia – STL vs. PHL -$9,700 – Philly has the second worst wOBA against LHP, .250 with a 48 RC+ with a 30% K-rate so far this season. Garcia has a solid 10% swinging strike rate and 50+ ground ball rate and is favored -169 in a seven run total.
Kyle Hendricks – CHC vs. WAS – $8,000 – Not a high end tourney play, but a solid cash game SP2, Hendricks has the nice 20% K-rate, 50% ground ball rate working with low hard hit factors behind him, including 7% in his last start.
Kevin Gausman – BAL vs. NYY – $6,900 – The Yankees are 25th against RHP so far this season, and Gausman has figured something out, getting the same 20/50 K/GB factors as Hendricks and below average hard hit rates this season (27%).
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. TEX – $5,000 – Donaldson, at home, vs. LHP splits are extremely positive, with a .453 wOBA in that situation in 2015 and .529 so far this season.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. CHW – $4,600 – White Sox SP Erik Johnson currently sports a .368 wOBA against LH bats and Ortiz has a .424 wOBA in that matchup. The Red Sox, as a team, has a .357 team wOBA against RHP this season.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) MIA vs. ARI – $5,400 – Like Donaldson, Stanton at home vs. LHP is an extremely positive split, a .519 wOBA split last season. Robbie Ray has a .340 wOBA against RH bats this season.
George Springer (OF) HOU vs. SEA – $4,500 – Springer has a .423 wOBA against LHP, and Wade Miley has a .334 wOBA against RH bats. Houston has a 4.3 run number and Springer has been batting second behind LH masher Jose Altuve.
Chris Davis (1B) BAL vs. NYY – $4,200 – NYY SP Tanaka gives up 1.4 HR/9 IP and Davis carries a .420 wOBA with a 229 expected power rating (on a 100 scale) into Camden Yards tonight. At home, against RHP, Davis has a .429 wOBA.
Daniel Murphy (2B) WAS @ CHC – $4,000 – Murphy’s been raking, with a 94 mph avg exit velocity over his last two weeks along with 41% hard hit rate. Murphy has a .358 wOBA against RHP this season.
Carlos Correa (SS) HOU vs. SEA – $4,300 – Correa is picking it up, with a 48% hard hit rating over his last two weeks and a 92 mph avg exit velocity. Correa also has a .375 wOBA vs. LHP and gets Wade Miley tonight.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF) NYM @ SD – $4,800 – San Diego SP Colin Rea has a reverse split of .375 wOBA against RH bats and Cespedes is carrying a .386 wOBA against RHP.
Jose Bautista (OF) TOR vs. TEX – $3,900 – Lot of Blue Jays bats on here as they’ve been underwhelming recently, but you have to forget it and play the numbers, independent of recency bias. LHP in Rogers Centre, and Bautista has a .376 wOBA against LHP.
Charlie Blackmon (OF) COL @ SD – $3,700 – SF SP Matt Cain has been abysmal against LH bats, sporting a .402 wOBA against them, and Blackmon will get the first shot at him batting leadoff with a .341 wOBA against RHP.
Welington Castillo (CATCH) ARI @ MIA – $3,500 – The man known as Beef is maybe the hardest hitting catcher today and mashes LHP for a .373 wOBA and a massive 197 expected power rating.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS) TOR vs. TEX – $3,800 – I. Still. Believe. Tulo has been dropped to sixth against RHP, but he has a lefty tonight, Holland, who has a .339 wOBA against RH bats. Tulo’s exit velocity is up to 94 mph over his last two weeks and his seasonal expected power is still strong at 140.
Edwin Encarnación (1B) TOR vs. TEX – $3,500 – Encarnacion went deep Wednesday night and has a 43% hard hit rating over his last two weeks to go with a .353 wOBA against LHP.
Alex Presley (OF) MIL vs. CIN – $2,000 – Make sure Domingo Santana is a no-go tonight (he missed two of the last three games), as Presley and his 92 mph exit velo/50% flyball/31% hard hit rating will leadoff against Alfredo Simon (1.5 HR/9IP) if he does.