The slate is split for Wednesday DFS MLB action and this article will be focusing on the late games here. That gives us seven games to look at, which is more than enough to find some differentiation in our top plays on the day. Here are some of the players in good spots to consider for your team.
Jose Fernandez – Marlins v. Diamondbacks – $11,200 – Fernandez has his lovers and haters and both have valid points. Those who love him will point to the under .200 lifetime batting average of right-handed hitters against him and his current 13 strikeout per 9 inning pace. Those who hate him will point to the fact he has given up a few runs each start and never makes it past the 6th inning. With that being the case, he has still managed to average 20 fantasy points per start this season. Fernandez is lights out to right-handers and tough on lefties. We do not see a lot of solid lefties for Arizona, so I think he should be able to handle the righty heavy lineup. He may only go 6 and he may give up 2 runs or so, but the 7-9 strikeouts he picks up will help with his floor. Rubby De La Rosa is not good on the other side, so he should get some run support and be in line for the win.
Drew Smyly – Rays v. Dodgers – $10900 – Smyly has been awesome to start the year. After a shaky start in his opener against Toronto, he has not scored below 24 fantasy points in his last 4. His ERA is only 2.69, his WHIP is 0.69, and he has struck out 41 batters in 34 innings of work for a K/9 of almost 11. With the exception of their explosion against Matt Moore yesterday, the Dodgers have not been great against left-handed pitching. The ballpark in Tampa is also pitcher friendly, so I’m willing to pay up for Smyly to get that strikeout upside.
Carlos Rodon – White Sox v. Red Sox – $7400 – The price point is tempting for Rodon here today. He faces a Red Sox team that is struggling against left-handed pitching and was just held in check by Jose Quintana (another lefty) yesterday. Rodon has been solid in 4 of his 5 starts finishing with right around 20 fantasy points. At his price point today, that would be a really nice return if he can continue on that roll. With a solid matchup against a team that does not hit left-handed pitching well, I think he can repeat those efforts.
“He does not need to be lights out to return value at only $6400”
Aaron Sanchez – Blue Jays v. Rangers – $6400 – Sanchez seems a little too cheap for a guy who has a nice start to his season going. His ERA is only 2.59, his WHIP 1.15, and he has just shy of a strikeout per inning. He does struggle some with left-handed batters and Texas has a few like Odor, Mazara, Fielder, and Moreland near the top of that order and in a good hitter’s park. With that being said, he does not need to be lights out to return value at only $6400. He has averaged 19 fantasy points per start already, and that would be a 3X return if he repeats that today.
Carlos Correa (SS) – Astros v. Twins – $4600 – Shortstop is a tough position to fill everyday and I think people are overthinking it today. Sure, Xander Bogaerts hits left-handed pitching well and is in a good spot, but he lacks upside. For $200 more you can have Correa and that is not a tough decision for me. Correa faces an extreme fly ball pitcher in Phil Hughes in a ballpark that fly balls tend to rocket out of. Correa has the highest wOBA on the team against right-handed pitching and is one of the few shortstops with prime lineup real estate, sitting in the 3 hole. He has cooled off after a scorching hot start, but I’m expecting the Astros to get to Hughes today and Correa to be involved in the carnage.
Manny Machado (3B) – Orioles v. Yankees – $4500 – I love this matchup at home for Machado today. He is in a good hitter’s park and faces a weak lefty in CC Sabathia that allowed right-handed bats to hit over .300 against him last season with an obnoxious amount of home runs allowed. Machado owns a .395 wOBA and a .250 ISO score against lefties since the start of 2015. He is already 9-for-30 lifetime against Sabathia with a home run and many of those at-bats came against a much better Sabathia a few years back when Machado was a much younger hitter. I expect big things from Machado and the Baltimore offense in this one.
Stephen Piscotty – Cardinals v. Phillies – $4200 – Piscotty tends to find himself in the two spot for the Cardinals when they face a left-handed pitcher. In limited at-bats, he owns a .432 wOBA and a .231 ISO score in those situations. He faces a young lefty in Adam Morgan who allowed right-handed bats to hit .281 against him last season with 12 home runs in 64 innings of work. I expect this Cardinals lineup to get a few runs here today off Morgan and Piscotty should be one of the main catalysts.
Josh Donaldson – Blue Jays v. Rangers – $5000 – Donaldson does not have his favorite split today, but he is definitely in play. Even in a righty on righty matchup, he has racked up a .390 wOBA with .262 ISO score since 2015. Colby Lewis is not a shut down pitcher although he is better against right-handed batters. Donaldson may go lower owned with cheaper options like Longoria and Machado standing out on the numbers, but he has every bit as good a chance of ending the day as the top scoring third baseman. When Donaldson is low owned, I like looking his way for upside in tournaments.
Jose Altuve – Astros v. Twins – $4800 – Not many pay up for Altuve against a right-handed pitcher, but he’s been a stud to start the year. He is averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game so far, which makes him the highest average fantasy point producer on the entire late slate tonight by almost a full point over JOSH DONALDSON. That is not a typo. With second base being such a tough position to find upside or safety at, I like looking at Altuve against a weak pitcher in Hughes.
Logan Forsythe – Rays v. Dodgers – $4500 – Before you balk at the price tag here, let me lay out the case for you. Alex Wood has been erratic and allowed right-handed bats to hit just shy of .300 against him last year with a WHIP over 1.50. Forsythe owns an elite level .425 wOBA with a .314 ISO score against left handed pitching, which would make any cleanup hitter envious. He will also be leading off again today, so he will see the maximum number of potential at-bats. He did not have a great day yesterday against another lefty, but he is too good not to revert back to his usual numbers against them.
*”He is not 100 healthy, which is a concern, but he should still be able to have some upside against a pitcher like Sabathia”*%
Adam Jones – Orioles v. Yankees – $4000 – Adam Jones is one of the BvP specials of the day. He too faces the weak lefty CC Sabathia. Jones has a 19-for-61 lifetime line against CC with 4 home runs. He is hitting up in the top part of a very talented Baltimore lineup and should be in line for some solid production. He is not 100% healthy, which is a concern, but he should still be able to have some upside against a pitcher like Sabathia.
Evan Longoria – Rays v. Dodgers – $4400 – Everything we said about Forsythe basically applies here as well. Longoria has always hit left-handed pitching well. He owns a 396 wOBA and a .235 ISO against them since the start of 2015. Wood struggles with the right-handed bats and Longo has prime line up real estate as he occupies the 3 hole. He homered off a lefty yesterday and that is something he has done throughout his career. I am not a huge fan of Alex Wood and I expect the top of that Rays order to tag him for a few runs today.
Justin Smoak (1B) – Blue Jays v. Rangers – $3000 – He hit the game tying home run in the 9th last night before hitting the game winning one in extra innings. He faces a pitcher in Colby Lewis who is much worse to left-handed batters and Smoak is one of the few lefty bats the Blue Jays have to throw at him. I would not expect another double dong performance, but Smoak is swinging a hot bat and has a solid matchp in a good hitter’s park. For only $3000, it’s not point chasing if the matchup today is as good or better.
Rougned Odor (2B) – Rangers v. Blue Jays – $3600 – Odor was on top of the Rangers order yesterday and rewarded his backers with an early game homerun. The lefty has a solid matchup again here against Aaron Sanchez, who does have his troubles with left-handed batters. Odor gets the max number of at-bats as the lead off hitter on a road team guaranteed nine innings of outs and is pretty reasonably priced for a guy with multi-hit and home run upside in a great hitter’s park.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – Rangers v. Blue Jays – $3000 – I’m not trying to beat a dead horse here, but the pricing for Rogers Centre seems out of whack for the Coors Field of the American League. Mazara is the two hole hitter for the Rangers and everything we said about Odor applies here as well. Mazara has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games and is averaging about 8 fantasy points per contest. He makes an excellent cheap option for cash at only $3000.
Derek Dietrich (2B) – Marlins v. Diamondbacks – $3200 – With Dee Gordon suspended, we have not only seen Dietrich play some middle infield, but we have also seen him lead off. He had a .387 wOBA and .248 ISO score since the beginning of 2015 against right-handed pitching, so the guy can obviously rake. He faces Rubby De La Rosa who allowed left-handed bats to hit .315 against him with 20 home runs in 87 innings of work. The higher up in the order the more I like him today, but at $3200, I would even play him if he was hitting 8th.
Odubel Herrera – Phillies v. Cardinals – $360×0 – Herrera hits atop the Phillies order and is an on-base machine. He is on pace to have somewhere around 140ish walks this year, which puts him up there with Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Ted Williams. It’s always dicey whether or not someone behind him can drive him in, but the sheer volume of chances and his consistency make him viable in cash games. At only $3600, he fits nicely into a lineup when you pay up for pitching too.