Happy Memorial Day! We’re wrapping up the day of baseball with a five-game slate nightcap. After you finish off all the tasty beverages and delicious barbeque, let’s get busy looking for who to play on this pitching deficient slate.
Any questions, please feel free to reach out to me @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Ian Kennedy – KC vs. TB – $9,800 – Let me be clear, there are no studs on this slate. There are, however, pitchers with higher price tags, and while Ian Kennedy gives up a dinger or two (1.3 per 9 IP) and the Rays are #2 in road wOBA, Kennedy is average a K per inning and the Rays accommodate such K-rates, whiffing 25% of the time on the road, 26% of the time against RHP and 24% over the last two weeks. Without dominant pitchers or dominant spots, I’m going with the home pitcher with the most K upside on this slate.
Jhoulys Chacin – LAA vs. DET – $6,100 – Again, not great, but there is some K upside here, more so than the other two sub $8K SP on the slate tonight. Chacin is at home, the total is a manageable eight runs and the park factor and weather are slightly favorable toward pitchers.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. NYY – $4,100 – NYY SP Ivan Nova will be a popular target, as his wOBA splits are .360 against LH bats and .311 vs. RH bats. Saunders has a .389/.202 wOBA/ISO split and be in the thick of a Jays lineup implied to score 4.7 runs.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT @ MIA – $4,800 – The other big total of the day belongs to the Pirates at 4.8 runs and MIA SP Justin Nicolino has a .328 wOBA against RH bats and a meager 4.7% swinging strike rate. Cutch has a .389 wOBA against LHP himself.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. NYY – $4,900 – Again against Nova, Donaldson has a .376/.244 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and a 193 expected power (100 is average) over the last 10 games.
Anthony Rendon (3B) – WAS @ PHL – $4,100 – Rendon has been raking as well over his last 10 games, scoring a 216 expected power rating over that span and gets PHL SP Hellickson, who has a .327 wOBA against RH bats.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS @ PHL – $4,600 – Hellickson is even worse against LH bats, with a .342 wOBA and Harper, while not on top of his game lately, still carries a .444/.303 wOBA/ISO split against RHP.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. DET – $4,500 – Trout’s price is down, but his power metrics aren’t, with a 186 expected power rating over the last seven games.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA vs. PIT – $4,900 – He mayyyy be in the lineup tonight, and if he is, he’s nuclear against LHP at home in Miami. I’d play him with one hand tied behind his back in that split. In 306 career at bats at home vs. LHP, Stanton has a .457 wOBA, .376 ISO and a 194 RC+.
Jung-ho Kang (3B) – PIT @ MIA – $3,800 – Kang has a great matchup against Nicolino and a fantastic 212 expected power rating over his last seven games.
Odubel Herrera (OF) – PHL vs. WAS – $3,800 – Herrera may be a surprise here, but he has a .394 wOBA against RHP, WAS SP Roark has a .328 wOBA against LH bats and Herrera has a 248 expected power over his last six games.
Justin Smoak (1B) – TOR vs. NYY – $3,300 – Smoak’s been strong in power metrics all season, with a 168 expected power for the season and 233 over his last seven games.
Nick Castellanos (3B) – DET @ LAA – $3,700 – For me, Castellanos is this season’s J.D. Martinez, consistently measuring elite power numbers under the general radar. Nick has a 183 expected power number for the season and a 216 over his last six games. Also, he’s done it against RHP this season, too, with a .977 OPS.
Sean Rodriguez (2B/SS) – PIT @ MIA – $3,000 – SeanRod = Lefty assassin. Sean carries a .355 wOBA against LHP this season, a 183 expected power over his last seven games and a 1.072 OPS against LHP.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TB @ KC – $3,500 – Longoria is sneaky solid against RHP this season, with an .864 OPS against righties over his last 85 at-bats against them. KC SP Kennedy has a .332 wOBA against RH bats this year and Longoria’s expected power overall this season is a robust 160.
Danny Espinosa (SS) – WAS @ PHL – $2,500 – He doesn’t look like much, but Espinosa has been making hard contact and getting the ball in the air all season, with a 147 expected power over his last 100 at-bats.