Here are your MLB targets for tonight’s 5 game slate:
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Kevin Gausman – BAL @ HOU – $9,300 – The heading is a lie. There are no studs tonight, but I am picking one SP above the 9K line tonight and it’s Gausman. Strikeout upside is high, the eight run total in this game is the lowest of the short slate and Gausman does have an 11% swinging strike rate. The Astros will work the count, they’re fifth in walks and second in pitches per plate appearance, but they also hold the second highest swinging strike rate in baseball (20%) and are fourth in K-rate (25.2%) over the last two weeks.
Lance McCullers – HOU vs. BAL – $8,600 – Staying in the same game, McCullers gets the Orioles who, while being good hitters against RHP, are slightly worse on the road and provide the K-upside that you’ll need to overcome the four runs or so every team is implied to get tonight. McCullers has a 11% swinging strike rate and 9.3 K/9 to go against an Orioles team that is fifth in K-rate over the past two weeks (24.7%) and the third highest swinging strike rate for the season (19.6%).
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS @ STL – $4,800 – Huge wOBA split against RHP (.441) and strong ISO as well (.300), Harper goes against Mike Leake, who has the second lowest K-rate on the slate (15%).
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. COL – $5,200 – Ortiz has a .439/.360 wOBA/ISO split vs. RHP, has an always strong 193/168 expected power/hard hit metric (100 is average) over the past month and Jon Gray, while great this season, still has a .330 wOBA vs. LH bats. Sox have an implied 5.5 run total tonight as well.
Ryan Braun (OF) – MIL @ ATL – $4,000 – Braun has been bouncing back this week, with a 152 expected power over his last 12 at-bats and he goes up against Matt Wisler.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL @ HOU – $4,100 – Two guys are in line to get to McCullers, and Machado will have the first shot, with a strong .397 wOBA against RHP and a 192 expected power rating over his past 22 at-bats.
Dustin Pedroia (2B) – BOS vs. COL – $4,100 – DP did leave Wednesday’s game early, so make sure he’s in, but he has a .361 wOBA against RHP and should be batting second against COL.
“…the Royals have an implied 4.7 run total tonight, second highest on the slate”
Salvador Perez (CATCH) – KC vs. CHW – $4,100 – Perez has been clicking lately, with a 167 expected power rating over the past 24 at-bats and the Royals have an implied 4.7 run total tonight, second highest on the slate.
Freddie Freeman (1B) – ATL vs. MIL – $4,200 – A Braves one-off, Freeman carries a .377/.241 wOBA/ISO against RHP and MIL SP Wily Peralta yields a slate-high .381 wOBA against LH bats.
Daniel Murphy (2B) – WAS @ STL– $4,600 – The Nats do well as a team against Mike Leake, with 9 HR in 134 at-bats and Murphy has a .386 wOBA against RHP.
Brandon Moss (1B) – STL vs. WAS – $3,400 – Moss carries extreme power, with a 185 expected power rating over the last month. Joe Ross has a .344 wOBA against LH bats.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL @ ATL – $3,400 – Carter also has great power, with a 191 expected power rating over the last month and a 343 expected power rating over the last five games.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ HOU – $3,800 – Here’s the other Oriole to be concerned with against McCullers, with Davis authoring a .427/.361 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and an expected power rating of 155 over his past 100 at-bats.
Travis Shaw (3B) – BOS vs. COL – $3,700 – A nice tourney cog in the Boston Red Sox machine, Shaw has a .366 wOBA against RHP and a solid 170 expected power rating over the past seven games.
Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL vs. WAS – $3,500 – Grichuk has a solid reverse split against RHP, with a .373/.269 wOBA/ISO split. He also has a nice 139 expected power rating over the past month.
“Revere is not going to hit for power, but he’ll be hitting first against Leake with a 95 percent contact rate over the past week”
Ben Revere (OF) – WAS @ STL – $3,600 – Revere is not going to hit for power, but he’ll be hitting first against Leake with a 95 percent contact rate over the past week, in which he has popped for a 1.226 OPS over that time.