It’s travel day in the MLB, but there’s still a strong nine-game slate tonight, complete with some top SP options and game totals that are fairly packed in the middle. Let’s take a look at our studs and values and which SPs are the ones to target today.
Let’s do this!
Stephen Strasburg – WAS vs. NYM – $12,900 – The Mets are in offensive trouble right now, with a .287 wOBA over the last 14 days and a 25.4% K-rate over that span, making them the second worst offense over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Stras has found his happy place this season, with 13% swinging strike rate, 10.6 K/9 IP and a 4:1 K/BB ratio.
“Something is amiss with LHP Chris Sale, who has only a 9 percent swinging strike rate this season”
Jeff Samardzija -SF @ SD – $11,800 – Hard not to auto-recommend Chris Sale, but something is amiss with the LHP, who has only a 9% swinging strike rate this season. So, it’s on to Shark. He has an 11% swinging strike rate and gets the worst offense of the past two weeks and one that is last against RHP this year and second to last at home in wOBA.
Michael Wacha – STL vs. COL – $7,200 – The Rockies are 18th in road wOBA this season and Wacha has been tough against LH bats this season (.282 wOBA). The Rockies only have an implied run total of 3.5 tonight.
Marco Estrada – TOR @ MIN – $8,100 – Estrada is fairly average, but does have an 11% swinging strike rate and 8.5 K/9 this season. The Twins are fifth worst in baseball with 3.62 runs per game, are 22nd in wOBA vs. RHP and carry a 23.3% K-rate against RHP as well.
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Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. LAD – $5,300 – Trout may not be rostered highly in a snoozefest of a matchup in the last game here, but he’s got a .421 wOBA/.294 ISO against RHP. LAD SP Stripling has a .346 wOBA against RH bats and a 1.38 HR/9 IP rate in Trout’s favor here.
Gregory Polanco (OF) – PIT vs. ATL – $5,200 – You’ll find the space quite roomy in the Polanco Suite at $5.2K, but he has maybe the best matchup here against ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has a 4.04 wOBA against LH bats. Polanco has a 153 expected power over his last seven games (100 is average), and the Pirates have one of the highest implied team totals of the slate (4.6 runs).
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs. LAA – $4,500 – LAA SP Jhoulys Chacin has a weak .346 wOBA vs. LH bats and Seager is pounding everyone this season, with a .393 wOBA against RHP and a 204 expected power rating over his last 10 games.
Matt Carpenter (3B) – STL vs. COL – $4,300 – Carp, ever steady, continues to mash, with a .386 wOBA/.247 ISO against RHP. He isn’t slowing down the power either, with a massive 193 expected power over his last 100 at-bats.
Josh Reddick (OF) – OAK vs. NYY – $4,000 – NYY SP Nova yields 1.264 HR/9 IP and has a .370 wOBA against LH bats. Reddick has a .344 wOBA against RH and Oakland has a nice 4.2 implied run total tonight, which is solid for the slate.
Danny Valencia (3B) – OAK vs. NYY – $3,800 – Nova has a very low K-rate, 4.4 per 9 IP, meaning a lot of contact, while Valencia has a strong .382/.257 wOBA/ISO against RHP this season.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY @ OAK – $3,900 – OAK SP Kendall Graveman has a 1.509 HR/9 IP rate, and Beltran has a solid .362/.223 wOBA/ISO split against RHP. The Yankees have a solid 4.2 implied run total tonight as well.
“The Indians have the highest implied run total on the slate, with a 4.7 total”
Carlos Santana (1B) – CLE @ CIN – $4,000 – The Indians have the highest implied run total on the slate, with a 4.7 total. Santana will likely bat first and use his strong power metrics (149/148 expected power/hard contact rate, 100 is average) against CIN SP Tim Adelman.
Mark Teixeira (1B) – NYY @ OAK – $3,600 – Teixeira is starting to bounce back in hard contact and fly ball rate with 41% fly balls over his last 30 at-bats, raising his expected power to 120 (on a 100 is average scale).
Joe Panik (2B) – SF @ SD – $3,600 – Love some Panik tonight against James Shields, who has a .363 wOBA this season against LH bats. Panik is coming on strong, power-wise as well, with a 208 expected power and 44% hard contact rate over his last 30 at-bats.
Jung Ho Kang (3B) – PIT vs. ATL – $3,600 – Kang continues to mash, and he’s easily the hottest Pirate right now, with a 251 expected power this season. Tonight he gets the Mike Foltynewicz experience. Kang has a .374 wOBA against RHP as well.
John Jaso (1B) – PIT vs. ATL – $3,500 – You’re going to love the cheap PIT stack that will likely be a favorite. I’m not huge on Jaso, as his power metrics are below average, but he’s got a .356 wOBA against RHP. Folty is a .404 wOBA disaster against LH bats, and Jaso is leading off in this lineup that has a 4.6 implied run total.
Matt Joyce (OF) – PIT vs. ATL – $3,400 – Last but not least of the Pirates. Joyce does have plus power metrics this season, with a 164 expected power for the season and 198 over his last 34 at-bats. He has a .379 wOBA and .224 ISO against RHP this season as well.
Justin Smoak (1B) – TOR @ MIN – $3,300 – The Smoak Monster is going to be sneaky against MIN SP Ervin Santana. But the RHP has a .345 wOBA against LH bats, and Smoak rocks a .244 ISO against RHP. The Jays have a 4.5 implied run total in MIN tonight.