WATCH: THE CASE FOR MATT HARVEY TONIGHT
Friday night brings us a 15-game slate that includes the world’s best pitcher in the league’s best hitter’s park. That Rockies’ offense, just like Clayton Kershaw, typically absorb a tremendous amount of ownership so with both of those entities in less optimal positions to succeed, Friday night becomes quite interesting. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.
Rick Porcello – BOS vs. TB – $9,700 – The last time Clayton Kershaw took the ball in Coors Field he was just $10,000. That price point is a bit more enticing but even that leaves me a bit hesitant to pull the trigger, so $11,300 is an easier fade for me. I think the chalk play on the slate is Rick Porcello, who’s K-per-9 is up nearly two full strikeouts and he’s facing one of the friendliest teams in the game for strikeouts (26% vs. RHP).
Other Options – Clayton Kershaw ($11,300), Lance McCullers ($9,500)
Miguel Gonzalez – CWS vs. SD – $8,000 – Targeting the Padres is typically an optimal approach and is in play tonight despite the favorable park shift for them. I’m not just blindly targeting them though, the truth is Miguel Gonzalez has been better than you think so far this season. He’s done a great job in limiting hard-hit contact and while his 6.0 K/9 leaves a lot to be desired, the Padres help raise his expected floor here with a 23.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Your SP2/value play is not going to be without their flaws tonight.
Other Options – Patrick Corbin ($8,100), Mike Foltynewicz ($7,500)
Salvador Perez – KC vs. BAL – $3,400 – My dude is raking right now. I’m a huge Sal Perez fan because he’s easily one of the safest plays night in and night out at an otherwise high variance position, and his current form is three fire emoji. His hard-hit rate for the season is 35%, but over the past two weeks, Sal’s hitting the ball hard at a rate of 60%. 60. Percent.
Devin Mesoraco – CIN vs. SFG – $2,400 – If you need to save more money at catcher, Devin Mesoraco is far removed from the highly touted up-and-comer that he was in 2014 when he broke out. At any rate, he finally appears healthy and will likely be an unpopular selection.
Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. LAA – $4,300 – Matt Shoemaker the home run maker. We’re on the front end of a Miggy run of destruction, and Matt Shoemaker is going to help expedite that run tonight. Finally swinging it well after his stint on the DL, Cabrera is just too cheap and has a hard-hit rate of 52% over the past 15 days. I love him and his Tiger teammates in tournaments tonight.
UPDATE: The PHI @ WAS game has been POSTPONED.
Other Options – Matt Carpenter ($4,500),
Ryan Zimmerman ($4,900)
Yonder Alonso – OAK vs. TEX – $3,800 – Much has been said/written about Yonder Alonso’s changed approach and swing this season and while the fantasy points have followed, the increase in price has been slow to catch up. Yes, he was easier to roster when he was $2,900 for two weeks too long, but he’s still very much in play at $3,800 in Texas versus Andrew Cashner who allowed lefties to compile a .380 wOBA against him last season.
UPDATE: Robinson Cano is NOT in the Mariners lineup tonight against the Blue Jays.
Robinson Cano – SEA vs. TOR – $4,600 – The Mariners are in Toronto, which is a nice park shift for their offense, and assuming Robbie Cano plays through his sore quad, they’re one of my preferred sneaky stacks today. Cano has a massive .387 wOBA and .252 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Joe Biagini isn’t the guy to slow that roll.
UPDATE: The PHI @ WAS game has been POSTPONED.
Other Options –
Daniel Murphy ($5,200), Jose Altuve ($5,100)
Jed Lowrie – OAK vs. TEX – $3,400 – We’re targeting Andrew Cashner here again and exploiting his inability to control left-handed bats. Lowrie has been locked into the two-hole for Oakland for the past few weeks, making him very interesting for cash games if you’re looking to save salary. Remember in cash we’re always looking to maximize the expected floor for our lineup, so players on the road who hit at or near the top of the order should get a boost when they’re in a good matchup.
Other Options – Josh Harrison ($3,800)
Kris Bryant – CHC vs. STL – $4,800 – I really like this spot for Kris Bryant in tournaments tonight. The Cubs have been off to a relatively slow start, and Bryant doesn’t have the platoon advantage which could keep his ownership low despite being nearly as dangerous against right-handed pitching as he is against lefties. This is also going against NL ERA leader Mike Leake who has benefited from a low BABIP against so far this season.
Other Options – Miguel Sano ($4,500), Manny Machado ($4,700)
Ryan Schimpf – SD vs. CWS – $3,900 – If we’ve ever seen someone with Ryan Schimpf’s batted ball profile before I must have missed it because this is insane. The extreme uppercut swing is intentional and leads to a ton of fly balls, which can play well against a fly ball pitcher like Miguel Gonzalez in a hitter friendly park like Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.
Other Options – Ryon Healy ($3,700), Derek Dietrich ($3,000)
Jean Segura – SEA vs. TOR – $4,500 – I wrote up Robinson Cano at 2B and I’ll go with his double play partner, Jean Segura, at shortstop. Segura is my preferred play of the two if you’re only picking one, due to his ability to hit for a bit of power while being able to swipe bags as well. I like the Mariners to come in above their 4.2 implied-team total tonight, and Segura’s chances at five or even six at-bats are very much in play.
Jordy Mercer – PIT vs. ARI – $3,100 – Jordy Mercer could hit second tonight for the Pirates against left-hander Patrick Corbin, and that game is in Arizona, a great ballpark shift for the Pirates’ offense. Mercer doesn’t offer a ton of upside in this spot, but you could make a case for him in cash games if he’s indeed hitting at the top of the lineup.
Jay Bruce – NYM vs. MIL – $4,600 – We’re going on about four weeks now for this Jay Bruce heater, and I don’t see it slowing down in Milwaukee against Matt Garza. Not only is Milwaukee a great hitter’s park for left-handed bats, but Matt Garza has really struggled against them dating back to, well, forever. In 2016 lefties had a .354 wOBA against him and slugged at a .524 clip. Look for Bruce to stay on track with his 60% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Options – A.J. Pollock ($4,500), Michael Conforto ($4,300)
Justin Upton – DET vs. LAA – $4,200 – I don’t think anyone will be on J-Up tonight, but maybe you should be. His average fly ball distance, hard-hit rate, exit velocity and fly ball rate are all up significantly over the past two weeks and he’s facing a fly ball pitcher who’s exit velocity against and hard-hit rate against are all up this season versus previous years.
Other Options – Khris Davis ($4,200), Joey Rickard ($2,700)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.