It’s travel day in the MLB, but there’s still a strong eight-game slate tonight. Let’s take a look at our studs and values and which SPs are the ones to target today. Let’s do this!
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs. NYM – $13,300 – Kershaw is dominant, performing to that level of domination with a 2.17 SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), 16% swinging strike rate and massive 10.9/.5 K:BB rate. Mind boggling. The Mets also whiff 24% of the time against mortal lefties.
Vincent Velasquez – PHI @ ATL – $10,900 – Vince gets the Braves, who are dead last in wOBA and wRC+ against RHP. Velasquez has a 3.10 SIERA and a 13% swinging strike rate to go with a 3.3 expected run total against tonight.
Bartolo Colon – NYM @ LAD – $7,700 – Since the win isn’t critical, I’ll steal the back end of the two games expected to be the lower scored of the night. Colon is solid anyway, with a 3.3 SIERA and the Dodgers are fourth worst at home in wOBA and sixth worst against RHP.
“Despite Blair’s lack of stuff, the game is expected to be low scoring . . .”
Aaron Blair – PHI @ ATL – $7,500 – Blair is not a good pitcher, but the Phillies are not a good hitting team either. Despite Blair’s lack of stuff, the game is expected to be low scoring, with a 3.7 expected run total for the Phillies, jiving with a third worst wOBA against RHP this season.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL vs. DET – $5,400 – Mike Pelfrey, DET SP, has a .321 wOBA split vs. RH bats and Machado has a .400 wOBA/.254 ISO against RHP. The Orioles have the highest projected team total of the day with 5.4.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs. DET – $5,200 – Massive split advantage in the same game for Davis, who has a .420 wOBA and .357 ISO against RHP and Presley has a .384 wOBA against LH bats.
George Springer (OF) – HOU @ BOS – $4,100 – Springer should be batting second behind Altuve (great vs. LHP himself) and Springer enjoys a .445 wOBA and .262 ISO against LHP.
Matt Carpenter (3B) – STL @ LAA – $4,400 – Carp continues to crush, with a superhero-ish 269 expected power rating over the last week (100 is average) and 43% hard hit factor over his last couple of weeks. LAA SP Weaver is always weak against LH bats, and has a .341 wOBA this season as well.
Xander Bogaerts (SS) – BOS vs. HOU – $4,400 – Bogaerts loves LHP, with a .420 wOBA against southpaws. Dallas Keuchel isn’t your usual LHP, with a .280 wOBA; however, the Red Sox as a team are fifth against LHP, giving Xander plenty of chances to use his own advantages at home.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. SD – $4,100 – James Shields is in Miller Park, the #4 park for home runs so far this season, and has a 1.246 HR/9 IP rate. Carter has a .362 wOBA against RHP, with a .316 ISO and the Brewers have an expected team total of 4.6 tonight.
Ryan Braun (OF) – MIL vs. SD – $4,500 – Same reasons as Carter, with a .372 wOBA and .204 ISO. The hard hit rate is there for Braun (37% over his last two weeks), but needs more lift to get the home runs. Shields can help.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARI vs. SF – $4,500 – Classic tough pitcher (Cueto) lowering the salary in a favorable split place for a star slugger. Goldy has a .429 wOBA this season against RHP at home. Love the lower owned play here.
Aledmys Diaz (SS) – STL @ LAA – $3,200 – So, it’s settled then. Diaz won’t bat any higher in the Cardinals lineup and his salary won’t go up. In tourneys, this is a good deal, especially when he gets to bat 9th in AL parks. Diaz has a .492 wOBA and .319 ISO against RHP and has actually hit the ball harder in the last seven days instead of regressing weaker.
Brent Wallace (3B) – SD @ MIL – $3,000 – Wallace has the power metrics this season (167 expected power, 143 hard hit, 100 is average) and a .390 wOBA against RHP and is in Miller Park, where even the Padres are expected to score four runs tonight. MIL SP Nelson counters with a very vulnerable .363 wOBA against LH bats.
Alex Presley (OF) – MIL vs. SD – $2,000 – Check the lineups to see if he, not Domingo Santana, will start against RHP Shields. If so, Presley has been good, with a .222 ISO against righties this season.
“He’s starting to emerge and has a good matchup here to continue the rise against Jered Weaver”
Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL @ LAA – $3,200 – Grichuk has the reverse splits going for him (.364 wOBA, .263 ISO) and a seasonal 89% contact rate. He’s starting to emerge and has a good matchup here to continue the rise against Jered Weaver.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY vs. KC – $3,400 – Beltran has been raking, with a 233 expected power and 146 hard hit factor over his last week of play. Ian Kennedy, the KC SP tonight, has a .337 wOBA against LH bats and a 1.42 HR/ 9 IP in a stadium (Yankee) that is yielding 2 HRs a game.
Brian McCann (CATCH) – NYY vs. KC – $3,500 – See above the park and SP factors in McCann’s favor, too. Brian has a .206 ISO and .335 wOBA against RHP.