We have 14 games on the docket for Friday night, with a clear top-shelf ace and a lot of viable SP2s toeing the rubber. It should be a fun one, so let’s break it down. Remember that the best place for last-minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there, @RyNoonan… Let’ dig in.
Corey Kluber – CLE vs. CWS – $12,600 – This is a great spot for the slate’s ace, Corey Kluber. He’s at home, which is a negative park shift for the White Sox, and their .307 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching which ranks among the bottom third in the league. As a big favorite against the team with the lowest implied-team total on the slate, I think it’s likely we see massive ownership attached to Kluber tonight as he’s nearly impossible to fade in cash games.
Other Options – Ervin Santana ($11,000)
Brad Peacock – HOU vs. LAA – $7,900 – I’ll be interested to see what type of ownership Brad Peacock will garner tonight. His FPPG number on the lineup building page shows a minuscule 9.4 points, but since this will be just his fourth start, that number doesn’t tell the entire story. He has some elite swing-and-miss stuff, including one of the best sliders in baseball, and tonight he’s facing a scuffling Angels’ offense that ranks last in baseball against right-handed pitching this season in terms of ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
Other Options – Andrew Triggs ($5,700), Randall Delgado ($5,400)
Gary Sanchez – NYY vs. BAL – $4,600 – Unless you’re stacking the Yankees tonight, I’m not sure that Gary Sanchez is the way to approach the position tonight, but there’s no doubt that’s he’s the top target at the position. Fresh off of a two-homer outing on Thursday night, he’ll likely be popular again on Friday night.
Other Options – Brian McCann ($3,500)
James McCann – DET vs. BOS – $3,100 – It’s likely that James McCann will be back behind the dish for the Tigers tonight in Boston, fresh off of his DL stint for a hand injury that’s caused him to miss the past few weeks. McCann has been outstanding against left-handed pitching over the past few seasons, and he and his Tigers’ teammates get a great park shift tonight against Brian Johnson in Fenway Park.
Other Options – Austin Barnes ($3,100)
Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. BOS – $4,500 – Heading into the week, Miguel Cabrera was the league leader in hard-hit rate according to ESPN’s Stats and Info data, but his batted ball struggles have kept his numbers down relative to how well he’s truly hitting the ball. That poor batted ball luck is suppressing his price and is worth exploiting here tonight.
Other Options – Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600) Lucas Duda ($4,500)
Wil Myers – SD vs. KC – $3,700 – I really like this spot in tournaments for Wil Myers. His price has dipped despite his recent form, which has seen his hard-hit rate and exit velocity spike over the past two weeks, and he’s facing a left-hander tonight in Eric Skoglund who doesn’t strike fear in me, even with this game taking place in San Diego. This is a hitter who spent most of the second half of 2016 priced around $5,000 for a reason.
Other Options – Mitch Moreland ($3,700)
Dee Gordon – MIA vs. PIT – $4,000 – Targeting stolen bases can be a bit tricky, especially since the old adage that ‘you can’t steal first base’ still holds true. We do have better data on which pitcher/catcher combos are worth looking at when trying to project stolen bases though, and Pittsburgh’s Tyler Glasnow is a pitcher to exploit. He had one of the highest swipe-rate-above-average and take-off-rate-above-average’s last season according to Baseball Prospectus, so look for Gordon and the Marlins to run tonight when they can.
Other Options – Daniel Murphy ($4,600) Jed Lowrie ($3,900)
Brian Dozier – MIN vs. SFG – $3,800 – I think the ballpark will keep most people off of Brian Dozier tonight, but $3,800 for a player with his track record against left-handed pitching might be the way to look in tournaments. His massive power upside is undeniable, and he’s facing lefty Matt Moore who’s been hit hard all season long.
Other Options – Logan Forsythe 2B/3B ($3,500)
Miguel Sano – MIN vs. SFG – $5,000 – This price tag on Miguel Sano makes Brian Dozier seem like an even bigger discount, but let’s not pretend that Sano can’t return value with one swing of the bat. His power plays at any park and the negative park shift and steep asking price will likely keep his ownership totals much lower than we’re used to seeing.
Other Options – Jake Lamb ($5,500)
Evan Longoria – TB vs. OAK – $3,500 – Typically Evan Longoria is in play against left-handed pitching, but his splits are fairly balanced for his career, and in fact, he’s fared much better against right-handed pitching this season than in his limited at-bats against lefties. That sets up well for Longo against Andrew Triggs, who’s handled lefties well but has had struggles against dominant right-handed batters.
Other Options – Nicholas Castellanos ($4,000)
Trea Turner – WAS vs. TEX – $5,200 – There’s no better slump buster than Andrew Cashner. Trea Turner hasn’t played his best ball of late, but he’s a reverse splits hitter so far in his career and this is a great spot for Turner and the Nationals on Friday night. Turner’s aggressiveness on the base paths is a key as well. He stole three bags on Thursday night and has three multi-steal games in his last six starts.
Other Options – Fransico Lindor ($4,400)
Chad Pinder – OAK vs. TB – $2,500 – You have to love Chad Pinder tonight if he’s hitting near the top of Oakland’s lineup. At just $2,500 on the road, Pinder is a great cash game play if you’re looking to spend down, while still maintaining upside with his outstanding batted ball profile and hard-hit rate. Wait and see where he’s at in the lineup and go from there. He’s eligible at second base as well.
Other Options – Kiké Hernandez ($3,300)
Bryce Harper – WAS vs. TEX – $5,300 – With some of the aggressive price increases lately, I’m surprised that Bryce Harper’s price has essentially remained flat. He’s in a great spot tonight against batting practice pitcher, Andrew Cashner, who’s allowed left-handers to compile a .376 wOBA and .214 ISO over the past few seasons.
Other Options – J.D. Martinez ($5,400), Michael Conforto ($4,900)
Mookie Betts – BOS vs. DET – $4,300 – I don’t know why Mookie is priced so low tonight, but I don’t see any reason not to take advantage. Mookie Betts could be very popular tonight at this price against Jordan Zimmermann. His ERA, FIP, SIERA and DRA are all above 5.25, he doesn’t miss any bats and gets a sizable park downgrade in Fenway. All the Mookie.
Other Options – Hunter Renfroe ($3,800), Yasiel Puig ($3,700)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.