Thursday brings a healthy seven-game slate with every game 8.5 runs or higher so far. Wow. You thought last night was a good one for offense and high scores, maybe this one goes even higher. Let’s find our studs and values and get to it!
Gio Gonzalez – WAS vs. CWS – $8,900 – With every game 8.5 runs or more, bear in mind context when rostering a pitcher tonight. Gonzalez is in a nine-run game, which would be a red flag, but he’s a decent favorite, “only” four implied runs for the Sox, and Gonzalez has a solid 3.70 SIERA, 10% swinging strike rate and 8.6 K/9 rate. That’s gold tonight.
Nate Karns – SEA vs. CLE – $7,900 – Cleveland struggles on the road, with a .292 wOBA and 23.6% K-rate. Karns has a 4.00 SIERA, which qualifies as good on this slate, a 10% swinging strike rate and 9 Ks per 9 IP. Seattle is the slight favorite in a low-for-the-slate 8.5 run total.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. CWS – $4,800 – Miguel Gonzalez may be the meatiest target of the night for hitters, with a .356 wOBA to LH bats, specifically. Harper has always enjoyed the RHP splits and has a .443/.301 wOBA/ISO split against them this season as well.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM @ MIL – $4,100 – The Grandy Man eats up RHP with power, carrying a .380/.252 wOBA/ISO split and facing Jimmy Nelson, who has a .357 wOBA against LH bats this season.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. NYM – $4,100 – Nobody questions Carter’s power credentials, and he is locked in right now with a massive 276 expected power over his last six games. He enjoys reverse splits as well, with a .286 ISO against RHP and NYM SP Bartolo Colon also has a .316 reverse split and gives up over a homer per 9 IP.
Stephen Piscotty (OF) – STL @ CIN – $4,800 – CIN SP Finnegan is a top target tonight against the Cardinals, with a 5.1 implied run total against him tonight. Finnegan has nearly a 5.00 SIERA and massive control problems (11.4% BB rate, 4.4 per 9 IP), which should get the Cardinals’ into the Reds bottom ranked bullpen. Piscotty has a strong .449/.222 wOBA/ISO vs. LHP in the middle of all that Cardinals fun.
“Gotta keep ridin’ Beltran as he’s locked in power wise…”
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY vs. LAA – $4,400 – Gotta keep ridin’ Beltran as he’s locked in power wise, with a 194/207 expected power/hard hit split over his last seven games. His .375/.240 wOBA/ISO split against RHP is solid and the matchup against LAA SP Chacin has the Bronx Bombers at an implied five runs tonight. Chacin is softer against LH bats, with a .328 wOBA and has given up 1.196 HR/9 IP.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. BAL – $4,400 – The Jays have been a very unfortunate bunch this season, and Bautista shares some of that bad fortune with a .240 BABIP over his last 102 at-bats, despite an above average hard hit rate and 84% contact rate. BAL SP Wilson has an average .308 wOBA against RH bats, but Joey has a .383/.289 wOBA/ISO split against RHP this season and should continue to bat atop the Jays lineup.
Adam Duvall (OF) – CIN vs. STL – $5,400 – Not many people are going to pay more for Duvall than Bryce Harper or Mike Trout, but that’s where the Reds slugger is right now. His power is massive, with a 181 expected power over his last 100 at-bats and a .387/.356 wOBA/SO split against RHP. STL SP Wainwright is not missing many bats (8% swinging strike rate) and has a .359 wOBA against RH bats this season. Tourney play deluxe.
Matt Carpenter (3B) – STL @ CIN – $4,900 – Along the same vein as Duvall, ownership will be lower on Carp than normal due to a reverse split, but Carp has continued to sting the ball with hard contact, with 44% hard contact over his last two weeks.
Robbie Grossman (OF) – MIN vs. MIA – $2,000 – Min priced for a guy who is batting higher in the Twins lineup (second recently) and has power metrics that are very impressive (174 over his last 20 at-bats, 100 is considered average). Also, Grossman has a .437 wOBA split against RHP this season.
Justin Bour (1B) – MIA @ MIN – $3,400 – Nice expected power (182 over past five games, 100 is average) and enjoys an extended split advantage against RHP away, where he has a .346 wOBA. His .242 ISO makes him a tourney pivot at 1B against MIN SP Santana, who has a .338 wOBA against LH bats and gives up 1.131 HR/9 IP.
Danny Espinosa (SS) – WAS vs. CWS – $3,100 – As anyone who has read my articles in this space knows, Espinosa has been one of my favorite SS punts for the last three weeks and nothing has changed with Espinosa rocking a 232 expected power over the last week. As stated, Miguel Gonzalez is a prime target with the Nationals with a 5.0 run implied total.
Brian McCann (CATCH) – NYY vs. LAA – $3,500 – I covered the Yanks’ good position in the Beltran spot, but note that McCann has been extremely unfortunate, despite solid hard hit metrics over the last month. His .140 BABIP screams for regression to the mean and his 200/144 expected power/hard hit split over the past week means that time is now.
“Shot from a cannon last night in his first start, Parm responded with a pair of home runs”
Chris Parmelee (1B/OF) – NYY vs. LAA – $3,100 – Shot from a cannon last night in his first start, Parm responded with a pair of home runs. If he gets the start again vs. RHP Chacin, then he’s good to start in a Yankees stack in tourneys, even from the 8th spot.
Kirk Niewenhuis (OF) – MIL vs. NYM – $3,300 – Niewenhuis has good power and is in a good spot, at home, against NYM SP Colon. Niewenhuis has been making hard contact, with a 168 expected power over his last 71 at-bats and has a .379 wOBA at home against RHP this season.