Happy Monday, everybody! A solid, ten-game slate awaits us with some challenging options for pitching and solid hitting available at every price tier. So let’s shake off the weekend rust and find our studs and values.
Any questions? Please hit me up on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Jon Lester – CHC @ PHL – $11,600 – Lester has an 8.8 K/9 rate this season and a 3.20 SIERA and goes against the Phillies, who are near the bottom in home, vs. LHP splits, with a .266 wOBA and .105 ISO against LHP. Also, they strike out 24% of the time, giving Lester the upside needed to roster him at this salary.
Masahiro Tanaka – NYY vs. LAA – $8,300 – Not a bad cash game play here as Tanaka won’t rack up the strikeouts, despite his solid 12% swinging strike rate this season. The Angels, while not a whiffy team, are bottom five in both road and vs. RHP ISO and Tanaka has a sturdy 3.28 SIERA this year. Finally, to make the case, he’s a -150 favorite, and the Angels have an implied 3.6 runs, third lowest on the slate.
Mike Bolsinger – LAD vs. COL – $4,900 – I don’t love the matchup against some of the LH COL bats, but the Dodgers are a -155 favorite in a 7.5 run game, giving the Rockies an implied run total of less than 3.5 runs. Also, Bolsinger has a 8.2 K/9 rate with 11% swinging strike factor while the Rockies whiff 21.2% of the time on the road.
Chris Archer – TB @ AZ – $7,900 – Tourney only, Archer has the high K upside, thanks to his 10.2 K/9 rate, to pop some upside here. The Diamondbacks are only ok against RHP, slightly below average in ISO against RHP. They are more trouble at home, thanks to their park, but they strike out more, too, with a 22% K rate at home.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF) – CHC @ PHL – $5,300 – Cubs are the highest total on the board at an implied 4.9 runs scored against Adam Morgan, who has a .365 wOBA against RH bats and gives up 1.6 HR per 9IP. Bryant has been making hard contact all season, including a 196 expected power (100 is average) over the last 30 days.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY vs. LAA – $3,800 – LH power bats in Yankee Stadium are good, and Matt Shoemaker, while hot, gives up nearly 1.3 HR/9 IP and a .337 wOBA to LH bats. Beltran has made consistent hard contact and has a .379/.243 wOBA/SIO split against RHP.
Evan Gattis (OF) – HOU @ TEX – $4,300 – The Astros are the other high total team on the board and Evan Gattis, in the cleanup spot, has been making the most hard power contact on the team with a 172 expected power rating over the last 25 at-bats, which have included four home runs.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. HOU – $4,300 – TEX has a high run total, too, at 4.6 runs, and Mazara batting third in a vs. RHP split that he had built a .400/.246 wOBA/ISO split against should be a large part of that.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR @ DET – $4,200 – Donaldson has been getting pretty unfortunate over his last month, with a .220 BABIP over his last 100 at-bats. His hard contact has been solid over that span, so going against DET SP Fulmer, who has a .332 wOBA against RH bats, he is a sneaky tourney play for such a big bat.
“Nobody is warmer at SS than Seager”
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs. COL – $4,200 – Nobody is warmer at SS than Seager, who has a 186 expected power over his last 27 at-bats, meaning his recent power surge and 1.400+ OPS over that span is legit. In this matchup, Seager has a .385 wOBA and .233 ISO against RHP.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs. TOR – $4,100 – The consistency of hard contact and fly ball rate for Martinez is excellent, as he has a 200+ expected power over the last 25 and 100 at bat periods and is 13th for the season in this power metric.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ DET – $3,900 – Leading off, at $3.9K, against an SP with a reverse split (Fulmer, .332 wOBA) and his own .392/.301 wOBA/ISO split there.
Mikie Mahtook (OF) – TB @ AZ – $3,200 – Rays stack should be popular against LHP Ray in Arizona and Mahtook has a .423/.333 wOBA/ISO split against LHP.
Jurickson Profar (2B/SS) – TEX vs. HOU – $3,300 – Profar has been prolific in the wake of his promotion, with hits in his last nine games and two hits in seven of those nine games. He’s leading off and the Rangers have a 4.6 implied run total at home.
Steve Pearce (1B/2B) – TB @ AZ – $3,500 – Pearce has a .366/.256 wOBA/ISO split against LHP and AZ SP Ray has a .341 wOBA against RH bats.
Trayce Thompson (OF) – LAD vs. COL – $3,100 – COL SP Chatwood actually has a little reverse wOBA split, .341 against RH bats. Thompson has maintained a strong split against RHP, .373 and .241 wOBA and ISO respectively.
Javier Baez (SS/3B) – CHC vs. PHL – $3,500 – That big CHC implied run total, PHL SP Morgan’s high wOBA split against RH bats, and Baez with a .423 wOBA against LHP and strong 155 expected power rating over his last 20 at-bats.
“I also really like James McCann against TOR in a vs. LHP split…”
Jason Castro (CATCH) – HOU @ TEX – $3,300 – I also really like James McCann against TOR in a vs. LHP split, but Castro gives you low dollar, high power upside access to that HOU/TEX game, with a 133 expected power rating for the season.