We have a full 15-game slate tonight as we head into the holiday weekend, so let’s get to it. Remember, the best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.
Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. PHI – $12,500 – It’s a close call for the top spot at starting pitcher tonight, but I give Jacob deGrom the slight edge over Alex Wood because I think he’s more likely to work deep into the game. Those extra outs, and possibly subsequent strikeouts, really help raise deGrom’s floor in cash games. The Phillies’ offense has been struggling lately too, with a 24% K-rate and 79 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Alex Wood has been exceptional this season, but Dave Roberts doesn’t seem to let his pitchers top the 100 pitch mark very often and that hurts Wood’s upside despite the elite matchup against the Padres.
Other Options – Alex Wood ($11,700), Robbie Ray ($10,300)
Lance McCullers – HOU vs. NYM – $8,800 – The only other time that Lance McCullers has been under $10,000 this season was when he faced these Yankees in New York in early May. He struck out seven in six innings of work and finished the day with 29.1 DraftKings points. This is an elite starter who you can get at a discount against a Yankees club that’s less than 100% heading into this contest.
Other Options – Jacob Faria ($8,300), Marco Estrada ($7,100)
Alex Avila – DET vs. CLE – $3,900 – There should be a lot runs scored in this game, and getting as much exposure to it as possible seems like a sharp play on Friday. Alex Avila continues to hit second against right-handed pitching and will likely continue to do so for as long as he continues to mash. His average fly ball distance, exit velocity and hard hit rate against right-handers continue to be among the very best marks in all of baseball.
Other Options – Salvador Perez ($3,600)
Yan Gomes – CLE vs. DET – $2,300 – Like I said, we want as much of this game as possible. Tigers’ starter Anibal Sanchez is one of the best DraftKings pitchers to target against due to his increasingly high fly ball rate and inability to miss bats, so Yan Gomes is very much in play if he’s in the lineup tonight.
Other Options – Austin Barnes ($3,200)
Logan Morrison – TB vs. BAL – $4,700 – Another club that we’ll want to give a long look at is the Tampa Bay Rays. Orioles’ starter Chris Tillman has really struggled this season, walking nearly as many batters as he’s struck out while allowing copious amounts of hard contact. It’s no accident that Tampa has the highest implied-team total on the entire slate at 5.8 runs.
Other Options – Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500)
Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. CLE – $3,900 – Over the past two weeks, Miguel Cabrera’s hard-hit rate is 57%. 57! That’s an insanely high mark and is, even more, proof that Miggy has no business being under $4,000 against any pitcher. He’s firmly in play against reverse-split righty Josh Tomlin.
Other Options – Matt Carpenter ($3,900), Kendrys Morales ($3,700)
Jose Ramirez 2B/3B – CLE vs. DET – $5,100 – There are a few really good value plays at second base, so you might not need to go up this high to fill second base, but if you’re stacking the Indians against Anibal Sanchez you’ll want to make sure the hot-hitting Ramirez is a part of it. The free-swinging Ramirez has nine multi-hit games over his past 15 starts.
Other Options – Robinson Cano ($4,900)
Ian Kinsler – DET vs. CLE – $3,700 – Both the Tigers and the Indians will likely hit their way-too-cheap second baseman lead off tonight, and they’re both great plays. I’ll give the slight edge to Kipnis in cash games, but Kinsler in DraftKings tournaments because I think Kipnis will be more popular despite having a slightly worse power profile at this point of his career.
Other Options – Kike Hernandez ($3,700), Jason Kipnis ($3,800)
Evan Longoria – TB vs. BAL – $4,600 – This one checks all the boxes. Longoria has been crushing right-handed pitching all season, is hitting near the top of the lineup on the road in a great hitters’ park and his team has the highest implied-team total on the slate. Oh, and he’s owned Chris Tillman in a very Paul Goldschmidt/Tim Lincecum kind of a way.
Other Options – Nolan Arenado ($4,300), Jake Lamb ($5,000)
Logan Forsythe – LAD vs. SD – $3,100 – Don’t let the small sample size of at-bats this season fool you, Logan Forsythe against lefties is still very much a thing. He carries a .403 wOBA against southpaws over the past few seasons and is set to hit leadoff on the road in San Diego. Forsythe is a great play in cash games if you need the savings.
Other Options – Manny Machado ($3,800), Joey Gallo ($3,700)
Carlos Correa – HOU vs. NYY – $4,500 – I think Yankees’ starter Michael Pineda is in no-man’s land tonight. He likely won’t be a popular option, but I don’t think you’ll see a lot of ownership tied to the Astros’ bats either. That may be a mistake. Pineda isn’t missing bats at the elite level that he had been over the past few season’s but he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact, and Correa is currently locked in at the plate. He has a nine-game hitting streak and is fresh off of a two-homer outing on Thursday night.
Other Options – Elvis Andrus ($4,400)
Trevor Story – COL vs. ARI – $3,000 – I really only consider Trevor Story when he’s facing left-handers that don’t strike guys out, but he’s just so cheap here I can’t ignore it. He’s a viable tournament play against Robbie Ray in Arizona and won’t need to do much to return value at this price. Ray is a fly ball pitcher who’s allowed more hard-hit contact than any other pitcher on this slate.
Other Options – Eduardo Escobar ($3,200)
Corey Dickerson – TB vs. BAL – $4,900 – Have I mentioned that the Rays are a good play tonight? I think I did. C-Dick will likely hit second and has immense power upside against Chris Tillman in Baltimore. With some of the other high-priced studs in the outfield having difficult matchups, I think Dickerson will be a fairly popular play tonight for those looking to spend up.
Other Options – Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600), J.D. Martinez ($4,500)
Matt Olson – OAK vs. ATL – $2,300 – The ability to roster a high upside bat that’s hitting near the top of the order for just $300 more than the minimum is a huge asset and I suggest taking advantage of it. The left-hand hitting Olson will face Mike Foltynewciz who’s allowed left-handers to compiled a .375 wOBA against him during his career, and a .389 wOBA against him this season. He’s viable in both cash games and tournaments.
Other Options – Mallex Smith ($3,800), Nomar Mazara ($3,800)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.