It’s a solid 10-game slate tonight with games at Coors, Arizona, Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium, so scoring will be high, and we’ll need to find enough value to get our studs in there tonight — let’s do this!
Madison Bumgarner – SF @ OAK – $13,000 – Last five starts: 3.01 SIERA, 13% swinging strike rate, 9.8 K/9IP. The Giants are a big favorite in a seven run game total, leaving the implied run total for Oakland at a mere 3.1 team total.
John Lackey – CHC @ NYM -$10,600 – Lackey hasn’t had a bad five start stretch himself, with the same 13% swinging strike rate as MadBum and an even healthier 10.0 K/9 IP rate. The Mets are reeling in their lineup, bottom ten in wOBA in wRC+ over the last 14 days and Lackey is a solid favorite in this 7.5 run total.
Gio Gonzalez – WAS vs. CIN – $7,400 – The Reds are far less threatening outside of their homer haven in Cincinnati, scoring 28th in both wOBA and wRC+ away from home and are 24th against LHP, with a 22% K-rate. Gonzalez has been very good over his last five starts, with a 3.22 SIERA led by a 11.4 K/9 IP rate. Walks are always the issue with Gio, but the Reds walk the seventh least with a 7% walk rate against LHP.
Taijuan Walker – SEA vs. BAL – $7,900 – Tourney play only here, and I like Gio more as a discount SP, but you have to like Walker’s home splits, where he is nearly dominant. Walker sports a .262 wOBA at home, with a 25.7% K rate and only 20.9% hard hit rate.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL vs. KC – $4,800 – KC SP Chris Young is giving up 2.624 HR/9 IP and has a .383 wOBA against LH bats. Moss is always among the top power bats and has a 201 expected power for the season (100 is average), making him the best power target against Young.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. CIN – $4,200 – Great splits against LHP, with a .438 wOBA/.317 ISO. CIN SP Finnegan has given up 1.358 HR/9 IP and the Nationals have a 5.4 implied run total in this one.
Ryan Zimmerman (1B) – WAS vs. CIN – $4,200 – Right behind Werth in this plus matchup is Zimmerman, who has a .433 wOBA and .376 ISO against LHP himself.
Jose Ramirez (3B) – CLE @ TOR – $4,000 – Cleveland’s 4.5 implied run total is third highest on the slate and Ramirez has been rock solid in the middle of that lineup, with a 175 expected power over his last six games, and he has a solid .361 wOBA against RHP.
Robinson Cano (2B) – SEA vs. BAL – $4,100 – Incredibly inexpensive for a .430 wOBA and .279 ISO against RHP, and a 163 wRC+ at home against RHP. The Mariners have an implied 4.3 run total, facing off against BAL SP Tillman, who has a 4.76 xFIP away mark this season.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET @ TB – $4,200 – TB SP Odorizzi has a reverse split of .333 and Miggy hits RHP just fine, going .411 wOBA against righties this season.
Nick Castellanos (3B) – DET @ TB – $3,900 – Odorizzi allows 1.42 HR/9 IP and Castellanos still carries one the top power bats in the league, fifth in expected power (180) among those with 200+ at-bats.
Michael Taylor (OF) – WAS vs. CIN – $4,200 – Taylor should be leading off against LHP Finnegan, and he’s got a .849 OPS against LHP this season. Also, the Nationals have that 5.4 projected run total tonight.
Derek Dietrich (2B) – MIA @ ATL – $3,700 – Dietrich is starting to warm up again, with a 124 expected power rating over his last five games and still carries a strong .374 wOBA against RHP. ATL SP Foltyniewicz has a weak .405 wOBA against LH bats.
Steven Moya (OF) – DET @ TB – $2,600 – TB SP Odorizzi is tougher on the LH bats, but Moya is so inexpensive that it’s worth riding his .250 ISO against RHP and his almost 400 expected power over his last 10 at-bats (286 over his last 34 at-bats).
Tyler Naquin (OF) – CLE @ TOR – $3,500 – Naquin is in the Rogers Centre and has been hitting the ball hard, with a 172 expected power over his last 17 at-bats and a 224 over his last 64 at-bats. TOR SP Dickey gives up 1.2 HR 9/IP.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. CLE – $3,700 – CLE SP Carrasco is tough, but the Jays are still implied to score over four runs tonight and Saunders is in the middle of the lineup with his .401 wOBA/.251 ISO.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM vs. CHC – $3,500 – If the Grandy Man is active, I love his .370 wOBA/.248 ISO in the leadoff spot against CHC SP Lackey and his .320 wOBA.
Javier Baez (SS) – CHC @ NYM – $3,500 – Vs. LHP special, with a .431 wOBA and .212 ISO against LHP and 174 expected power over his last 35 at-bats.