WATCH: PIVOT PLAY – JOSE URENA
We have an eight-game main slate tonight, and it’s a good one. It’s a Kershaw slate, but can you spend nearly 27% of your budget on him on the road against an American League team? You can, but you might not have to. Lots to unpack here, so let’s get to it. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.
Chris Archer – TB vs. PIT – $11,300 – There hasn’t been anything that’s happened on the field in 2017 that would explain a $2,000 price difference between Clayton Kershaw and Chris Archer on this slate. Add to the fact that Archer is benefiting from a great park shift here against a National League team, and it’s even easier to make the case for Archer tonight.
Other Options – Clayton Kershaw ($13,300)
Dinelson Lamet – SD vs. ATL – $7,000 – There’s a plethora of SP2s tonight, and while I think most will flock to David Price, I think Dinelson Lamet is worth a shot in DraftKings tournaments. His massive strikeout upside is difficult to ignore, even against a Braves club that whiffs at a below average rate. Atlanta’s .137 isolated power against right-handed pitching is tied for the worst mark in the league.
Other Options – Jameson Taillon ($7,500), David Price ($7,700)
Gary Sanchez – NYY vs. CWS – $5,100 – The injuries to Matt Holliday and Starlin Castro have propelled Gary Sanchez up the ladder in New York’s lineup, making his $5,100 price tag slightly more palatable. It’s a great spot for the Yankees bats, on the road in Chicago against James Shields, and their 5.7 implied-team total is one of the highest on the slate.
Other Options – Russell Martin ($3,700)
Welington Castillo – BAL vs. TOR – $3,100 – His numbers are a bit down on the season against left-handed pitching, but Welington Castillo has mashed lefties over the course of his career, and he’ll face J.A. Happ in Toronto tonight. Using Castillo and the Baltimore bats could be a strong leverage play against Happ who’ll likely be a popular play tonight.
Joey Votto – CIN vs. MIL – $4,700 – Jimmy Nelson is making strides against left-handed hitters, but a career .343 wOBA-against for Nelson puts Votto firmly in play here. There are a ton of cheap options at the position though, so you’ll likely be able to get the perennial All-star underowned.
Other Options – Cody Bellinger ($5,500)
Justin Bour – MIA vs. NYM – $3,800 – Roughly a month ago we were paying $5,000 for Justin Bour and not thinking twice about it. Tonight he’s just $3,800 against an average-at-best right-hander, a matchup where Bour owns a .439 wOBA and .350 ISO so far this season. That’s difficult to ignore in any format.
Other Options – Mitch Moreland ($4,000), Kendrys Morales ($3,700)
Scooter Gennett – CIN vs. MIL – $4,300 – Well it looks like Scooter is still a thing, huh? He’s benefiting from a cozy home park for left-handed power, and I already noted Jimmy Nelson’s career struggles against southpaws. His current form is outstanding too, with a hard-hit rate of 50% over the past two weeks.
Other Options – Brian Dozier ($4,600), Dee Gordon ($3,900), Jose Pirela ($3,600)
Miguel Sano – MIN vs. BOS – $4,300 – If you aren’t using David Price, I think it’s a wise tournament strategy to use Miguel Sano here. His power upside is immense, and we’ve seen David Price struggle with right-handed power bats all season long. Sano is basically split-neutral as well, so he’s viable even against Boston’s right-handed bullpen arms later in the game.
Other Options – Josh Donaldson ($4,300), Justin Turner ($4,500)
Manny Machado – BAL vs. TOR – $3,900 – At some point this summer we’ll look back and wonder how Manny Machado was under $4,000 so frequently earlier in the year. I’ll continue to buy while the price is right because the batted ball profile and plate discipline numbers show an improving hitter who’s been a tad unlucky to date. I’ll take him in cash games and tournaments tonight.
Xander Bogaerts – BOS vs. MIN – $4,900 – This is a little rich for my blood, but shortstop is a bit of a mess tonight. X-Man is the recommendation based on the Sox’s implied-team total and Kyle Gibson’s overall ‘gas can-iness’, which isn’t a word but you get it. If you’re stacking Boston bats, you’re likely including Bogaerts.
Other Options – Corey Seager ($5,300)-DTD
Didi Gregorius – NYY vs. CWS – $3,700 – Here’s another Yankee who’s sliding up the lineup with the injuries to Holliday and Castro. Didi Gregorius is my preferred cash game play at the position tonight and will likely be very popular.
Other Options – Tyler Wade ($2,700)
Aaron Judge – NYY vs. CWS – $5,700 – I think the combination of Aaron Judge’s price and Clayton Kershaw being on the slate will keep Judge’s ownership down a bit tonight. Perhaps that’ll affect his teammates’ ownership as well, setting up well for a Yankees stack if you’re so inclined. The thought of using Judge against a bad pitcher with a 50% fly ball rate is just too enticing to pass up on.
Other Options – Mookie Betts ($5,000), Brett Gardner ($4,400)
Hunter Renfroe – SD vs. ATL – $2,900 – We’ve seen Hunter Renfroe’s price drop over the past few weeks because he’s been ice cold at the plate, but his power against left-handed pitching is worth noting. He’s not worth consideration against righties, but a .422 wOBA with a .314 ISO against left-handed pitching so far this season is really appealing for just $2,900.
Other Options – Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,700), Scott Schebler ($3,800)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.