It’s a solid 10-game slate tonight with games at Coors, Arizona, Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium, so scoring will be high, and we’ll need to find enough value to get our studs in there tonight — let’s do this!
Jake Arrieta – CHC @ CIN – $13,700 – He’s definitely my top option, with wOBA splits vs. LH and RH bats below .230, an incredible 13.6% hard contact rate over his last three starts and facing the Reds, who are fourth worst in wRC+ against RHP.
Robbie Ray – ARI vs. PHL – $9,300 – Don’t love the environment here, in Arizona, but the Phillies are the worst against LHP with a .103 wOBA and pathetic 59 wRC+ (100 is average) against LHP. Ray has been a solid pitcher over his last five starts with a 3.39 SIERA and 11.2 K/9 IP.
Adam Wainwright – STL @ KC – $7,400 – Over his last five starts: 3.19 SIERA, 33 2/3 IP, 8.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 IP, 48% GB rate, 10% swinging strikes. He’s righted his early season ship and get the Royals, who aren’t pushovers, but have been below league average against RHP in wOBA and wRC+.
John Gant – ATL vs. CLE – $5,900 – Cleveland is 26th in wOBA and wRC+ on the road, with a 22.5% K-rate and Gant has been solid 9.2 K/9 IP and a 3.98 SIERA. Not ace material, but solid enough to get to value at $5.9K.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. TOR – $5,300 – In any Coors game against RHP, CarGo has to be targeted, with his .464 wOBA and 179 wRC+ against RHP at home this season. Marco Estrada may present a tougher matchup, but Estrada has given up 42% hard contact over his last three starts.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR @ COL – $4,900 – On the other side, Jon Gray has given up his own hard contact all season, with over 30% in almost all splits. Saunders has a healthy .401 wOBA/.251 ISO split against RHP this season.
Charlie Blackmon (OF) – COL vs. TOR – $5,200 – Blackmon, like CarGo has the favored home/vs. RHP split, and Blackmon has been hitting the ball well lately, with a 199 expected power (that’s an elite level, 100 is average) over his last 115 at-bats and 278 over his last 33 at-bats.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS) – TOR @ COL – $4,200 – Tulo back in Coors, but he’s been going well since coming back (before injury, too, but he was extremely unfortunate), going 147 expected power since his return with an 11% walk rate and 30% hard contact.
Colby Rasmus (OF) – HOU vs. LAA – $3,600 – The Astros just saw LAA SP Shoemaker, who has a 1.345 HR/9 IP rate this season, and that’s an advantage for Astros bats, especially Rasmus, who has a solid .211 ISO against RHP and a 212 expected power over his last 22 at-bats.
“Beltre has been going good, with a 138 expected power over the last week…”
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX @ NYY – $3,700 – Love the Rangers in Yankee Stadium against NYY SP Nova, who has wOBA trouble against LH and RH bats, and the Rangers are an implied 4.5 runs. Beltre has been going good, with a 138 expected power over the last week.
Shin-Soo Choo (OF) – TEX @ NYY – $3,800 – Choo is even hotter, with a 252 expected power over his last 30 at-bats, .398 wOBA against RHP and NYY SP Nova’s slate-worst .361 wOBA against LH bats.
Ezequiel Carrera (OF) – TOR @ COL – $3,900 – Probably leading off, in Coors, against a RHP, and under $4K. Pretty good target there, and a 92% contact rate over the last seven days.
Prince Fielder (1B) – TEX @ NYY – $3,300 – A LH bat in Yankee Stadium is great. One going against NYY SP Nova, who has a 1.531 HR/9 IP this season is better. And since Fielder has found his power stroke over the last week, with a 147 expected power and 90% contact rate, I’m very eager to put him on the board.
Brandon Crawford (SS) – SF vs. OAK – $3,200 – Crawford gets OAK SP Mengden, who has skills, but has also given up hard contact (37.5%) and home runs (1.561/9 IP), so Crawford, who has a strong .232 wOBA against RHP, is in play here.
Mark Teixeira (1B) – NYY vs. TEX – $3,500 – Teixeira is back, and the Yankees face TEX SP Gonzalez, who has given up 1.212 HR/9 IP and the Yankees have an implied run total of 5.0 tonight. Teixeira has come out of the activated gate with a 167 expected power over a super-small nine at-bat sample.
“…In Yankee Stadium, which has been the #1 park for LH home runs over the past two seasons”
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX @ NYY – $3,400 – Last Ranger is Mazara, who gets that super-sweet matchup with Nova in Yankee Stadium, which has been the #1 park for LH home runs over the past two seasons.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM @ WAS – $3,400 – Walker continues to make hard contact and faces Joe Ross, who has given up 37.5% hard contact over his last couple of starts and a .346 wOBA to LH bats overall.
A.J. Pierzynski (CATCH) ATL vs. CLE – $2,000 – Absolute minimum, will be batting in the top six and has been smashing lately, with a 211 expected power over his last four games.