A short, travel day, five game slate tonight, with a COORS GAME in there, so there’s going to be a push to find enough value so you can bring the bang from Denver. Any questions, reach out @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Jon Lester – CHC @ MIA – $11,700 – No premium matchups here overall, but even though Miami’s rep is that they hit LHP well, they’re 16th this season with a meh .140 ISO to go with a 23% K-rate. Lester meanwhile, has been great this season, with a solid 3.11 SIERA and 9.0 K/9 IP total. He’s the only pitcher on the slate that ranks above a projected 7Ks, is a top 15% percentile strikeout pitcher for the season and has given up less than 30% hard contact in the last two weeks.
Matt Harvey – NYM @ ATL – $8,100 – Harvey is an average pitcher at this point, but the Braves, even while better in the last two weeks, are still a pretty punchless team, with a wOBA and ISO in the bottom five in both vs. RHP and home hitting. Harvey is a big favorite in a 7.5 run matchup.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. ARI – $5,000 – Devastating splits against RHP (.433 wOBA, .328 ISO) which get even better at home, and he has positive BvP against ARI SP Greinke as well, with 12 hits in 31 at bats, including four home runs.
Charlie Blackmon (OF) – COL vs. ARI – $4,500 – Blackmon has good splits here as well, with a .347 wOBA against RHP and nine hits in 30 at bats against Greinke.
Jake Lamb (3B) – ARI @ COL – $5,300 – Lamb is crushing everybody right now, with a 178 expected power (100 is average) over his last 87 at-bats. He has a .359 wOBA against RHP and COL SP Butler has a ridiculous .432 wOBA against LH bats. It’s even possible that he’s less owned because Nolan Arenado is less expensive.
Chris Herrmann (CATCH) – ARI @ COL – $4,600 – Eddie Butler’s struggles against LH bats as noted above and Herrmann’s own success against RHP (.860 OPS) provokes this recommendation. Herrmann has a 234 expected power rating for the year over his 110 at-bats.
Trevor Story (SS) – COL vs. ARI – $4,300 – Story’s salary has been undervalued for quite some time despite his 181 expected power over his last 110 at-bats. He provides a reasonable entry point into this game and upside at SS.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM @ ATL – $4,300 – ATL SP Wisler has been better against LH bats, but still carries a .375 wOBA, and The Grandy Man has a .388 wOBA/.270 ISO against RHP to go with a recent 147 expected power rating over his last two weeks.
Javier Baez (SS) – CHC @ MIA – $3,800 – Baez loves LHP, with a .431 wOBA/.236 ISO split in that matchup and MIA SP Chen gives up 1.557 HR/9 IP and .349 wOBA against RH bats.
Eugenio Suarez (3B) – CIN vs. SD – $3,900 – Suarez rocks a .370 wOBA against LHP and SD SP Friedrich gives up a .352 wOBA to opposing RH bats. The Reds have an implied 4.8 run total tonight in their homer friendly park.
Nick Hundley (CATCH) – COL vs. ARI – $2,800 – This is an unreal punt possibility here as Hundley has a 147 expected power over his last 35 at-bats and has four hits and two walks in 16 plate appearances against Greinke.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM @ ATL – $3,400 – Walker is on fire lately, with a 277 expected power over his last 19 at-bats and 194 over his last 81 AB. He has a solid .345 wOBA against RHP and ATL SP Wisler’s vs. LH bats struggles are already documented above.
Daniel Nava (OF) – LAA vs. OAK – $2,900 – Nava is never highly owned, even on small slates, he has a good matchup against OAK SP Graveman, who has a .341 wOBA split against LH bats and Nava has a 159 expected power rating over his last 12 at-bats (very small sample).
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – NYM @ ATL – $3,500 – Cabrera has been hitting the ball with authority over the last 30 days, with a 180 expected power. He gets the matchup with ATL SP Wisler and has a solid .337 wOBA/.179 ISO against RHP this season.
Steven Vogt (CATCH) – OAK @ LAA – $3,100 – Vogt has the power stroke going right now, with a 180 expected power over the last two weeks. He faces LAA SP Lincecum, who had a 4.67 SIERA in his first start back and a mild 7% swinging strike rate.
Adam Rosales (2B/3B) – SD @ CIN – $2,800 – CIN is a great HR park, and Rosales specializes in power vs. LHP, with a 1.303 OPS vs. LHP over his last 30 days and a 138 expected power rating for the season.