A solid nine-game slate tonight features top end pitching and some high expected game totals, so let’s sort the studs, values and do this! Any questions, reach out @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs. WAS – $14,200 – Even with some terrific pitching this season, Kershaw is a cut above. .203/.223 wOBA against LH/RH bats is tops on the slate, as is his 16% swinging strike rate and 32.6 K-BB%. And if the cost scares you, consider he’s averaged 32 DKPPG this season.
Stephen Strasburg – WAS @ LAD – $13,200 – Let’s also play the other side of this 5.5 run total and edge Strasburg over Madison Bumgarner due to the fact that Los Angeles is in the bottom half in wOBA and wRC+ against both RHP and at home and Pittsburgh is top ten in vs. LHP and home in the same categories. Also, Strasburg has better road K-rates (11.07 per 9IP for Stras vs. 9 for MadBum).
Drew Smyly – TB @ CLE – $6,700 – All the value have significant warts, with Smyly vs. CLE being that the Indians are very tough at home and it’s a hitter park. However, Smyly has the K-upside with a 13% swinging strike rate, and the Indians do whiff 22% of the time vs. LHP.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET vs. SEA – $4,500 – .412 wOBA against RHP and Detroit with an implied 4.7 runs scored tonight against SEA SP Nate Karns, who has an average .308 wOBA against RHP but doesn’t go far into games, opening up the game to Seattle’s 27th ranked bullpen.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. CWS – $5,500 – Boston is the top stack of the night, going against .362/.335 wOBA against RH/LH CWS SP Gonzalez. Ortiz is the best of the best here, with a .464/.388 wOBA/ISO against RHP and a six run implied team total against CWS.
Hanley Ramirez (1B) – BOS vs. CWS – $4,200 – A lower owned option will be Hanley, who gets that still-favorable split, will be batting behind Papi (and at the same position) and has had a two week total of 43% hard hit balls in his favor here.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF) – CHC vs. STL – $5,200 – Something is wrong with STL SP Jaime Garcia, who has given up 45 hits in his last 25.1 IP. Enter Bryant, who has a 46% hard hit percentage over the past 10 games and a .249 ISO against LHP this season.
Victor Martinez (1B) – DET vs. SEA – $3,800 – Same as Cabrera, with the added value of Martinez of Martinez with an average exit velocity of 95 mph over the last two weeks.
Seth Smith (OF) – SEA @ DET – $3,900 – Great cash game play against RHP, where Smith has a .355 wOBA. DET SP Pelfrey is one of the richest targets of the slate, with a .371 wOBA against LH bats.
Marcell Ozuna (OF) – MIA vs. COL – $4,800 – Lefty masher deluxe, with a .422 wOBA against LHP with a .250 ISO. COL SP de la Rosa has a .338 wOBA against RH bats and 1.306 HR/9 IP.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL @ TEX – $4,500 – Great weather in Texas tonight and Trumbo has had good success against TEX SP Holland, with 15 hits in 45 at-bats including five home runs. Holland has a .369 wOBA against RH bats overall.
Steven Moya (OF) – DET vs. SEA – Moya has a nearly 40% hard hit percentage this season, got his first HR Sunday and has the aforementioned matchup with SEA AND an extremely friendly weather condition of being warm and the wind blowing out. Will be highly owned as folks try and wedge the expensive pitching options in with comfortable bats.
Robinson Chirinos (CATCH) – TEX vs. BAL – $3,100 – Chirinos is always a favorite because he makes hard contact (46% over last five games) and he gets the ball in the air (61% fly ball rate over same span). In Arlington tonight, Chirinos has favorable weather conditions to boot, with high temps and humidity plus BAL SP Gausman has a massive .362 wOBA split against RH bats.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL @ MIA – $3,800 – MIA SP Clemens has not pitched in the big leagues since 2014 and it wasn’t very good when he did, offering a .361 wOBA against LH bats. CarGo posts a .432 wOBA against RHP himself.
Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) – MIA vs. COL – $3,700 – If he leads off, that is. Adeiny is a solid play with hard hit percentage of 52% over his last 10 games and a wOBA 40 points higher against LHP than RHP with COL SP de la Rosa giving a .338 wOBA against RH bats and a 1.306 HR/9 IP.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. BAL – $3,300 – Mazara is in a deep funk, but if he’s batting high in the Texas lineup, he’ll have chances to score points in this game for the reasons mentioned in the Chirinos comments above. He also has a .373 wOBA/.194 ISO split against RHP.
Albert Almora (OF) – CHC vs. STL – $3,400 – If Dexter Fowler can’t go, let’s look at Almora as a low cost entry into this game against Garcia, who as mentioned has been struggling lately against everybody. Almora has started his efforts in Chicago with a .409 wOBA against LHP.