Saturday’s main game set is starting a little later than normal with the first pitch at 8:15pm ET. There are ten games with several top pitching options, but there are enough sub-$4k hitters that we should be able to work in two top guys by only finding a punt or two with some regulars likely getting a day off on Saturday. Let’s see what the DFS puzzle has for us today.
Steven Matz – NYM vs ATL – $10,900 – Since the beginning of 2014, the current Bravos batsmen have compiled a 72 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100); however, this season they have dropped even lower to a 59 wRC+ which means they are scoring 41% less efficiently against southpaws than the league average. Their 23.3% strikeout rate against lefties this season is the eighth highest and they do not hit for much power. This is an amazing price for Matz in this matchup, and he will likely be on 60%+ of all tournament entries with just a ten team player pool.
Max Scherzer – WAS at SDP – $13,900 – Scherzer is not a must at this lofty price point; however, he has a strikeout rate of 11.05 per nine innings and the Padres have been horrible this season against right-handed pitching with an 81 wRC+ which is the worst in the league. They are striking out at a 23.5% rate which is the fourth highest against right-handers.
Mike Bolsinger – LAD vs MIL – $6,700 – Bolsinger has been living on the edge and his actual production has a lot of good fortune behind it when looking at his underlying advanced metrics. This recommendation is about his price and Milwaukee’s propensity for striking out the third most against right-handed pitching with a 23.9% k-rate. The Brew Crew is projected to plate just 3.6 runs and there is a chance that Bolsinger can produce one more time.
Chase Anderson – MIL at LAD – $8,300 – The Dodgers are a middle-of-the-pack offense by most metrics when facing right-handed pitching, it just seems like they are better than they are because they are typically “under-priced” as a result of playing in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine. Over his last 40 starts, Anderson has been an adequate pitcher and this is a favorable matchup for him. The issue is that at this price point, he does not have much room for error.
Lorenzo Cain (OF) – KCR vs DET – $4,000 – LHP Matt Boyd has been crushed by righties and lefties alike through his 13 starts and two relief appearances over the last two seasons. During that time he has allowed a .368 wOBA and a 2.26 HR/9 rate. Since the beginning of 2014, Cain has tallied a .396 wOBA and a .210 ISO. He just might be the best dollar for dollar producer on the ten game evening slate.
Ben Zobrist (2B) – CHC vs PIT – $5,000 – Chicago will be hosting LHP Jonathon Niese and his fly ball tendencies in a matchup that just does not seem fair. The Zorilla should be in the thick of the fun for the Cubbies and he is a fine option in all formats.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS at SEA – $5,200 – Most gamers may not want to roll with the reigning National League MVP in spacious Petco Park, but his power plays anywhere. Opposing pitcher RHP Colin Rea has actually done a decent job against hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, but Harper is special and it would not be a surprise to see him with a multi-extra base hit game.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET at KCR – $4,400 – Miggy has been elite against same-handed pitching with a .401 wOBA and a .210 ISO over his last 1,058 plate appearances, and RHP Edinson Volguez tends to be susceptible to allowing big innings with crooked numbers.
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs MIL – $4,300 – RHP Chase Anderson has held his own over his last 40 starts; however, he has a solid 3.69 ERA but a 4.29 xFIP against left-handed hitters in that timeframe which means we should start to see some negative regression. We have seen that Seager is capable of multi-home run games, and this price is just too cheap. He is the top shortstop option in all formats.
Michael Conforto (OF) – NYM vs ATL – $4,100 – Both Conforto and teammate Curtis Granderson – $5,100 are in play against RHP Aaron Blair; however, with the $1,000 discount coming with Conforto, he is by far the better selection.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM vs ATL – $4,300 – Sticking with the Mets, we have the switch hitting Walker who has posted a .348 wOBA and a .200 ISO over his last 1,000+ plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Joc Pederson (OF) – LAD vs MIL – $4,100 – Pederson is a better play in tournaments because his all-or-nothing approach can often leave his supporters in a lurch. He has home run upside in this matchup with RHP Chase Anderson and is a very solid play with his ability to reach the twenty fantasy point plateau.
Scooter Gennett (2B) – MIL at LAD – $3,600 – Gennett should find himself near the top of the Milwaukee lineup with this lefty/righty matchup. Over his last 26 starts, RHP Mike Bolsinger has allowed a 1.68 WHIP to hitters swinging the stick along with a .349 wOBA and a 32.3% hard contact rate. The Regression Monster is coming my friends and he is hungry. Teammate Kirk Nieuwenhuis – $3,200 can be considered as a punt play if he makes the Brew Crew lineup.
Trayce Thompson (OF) – LAD vs MIL – $3,900 – Thompson has certainly not disappointed the Dodgers who actually gave OF Carl Crawford his walking papers with a huge chunk of money still owed to him. Over his last 177 at bats against right-handed pitching, Thompson has accumulated a .373 wOBA and a wicked .240 ISO. He is in play for all formats.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT at CHC – $2,800 – McCutchen is in the midst of a slump that is nearly as bad as the one Giancarlo Stanton is going through. However, we have a few things going in our favor Saturday night: 1) McCutchen is so cheap, some gamers may actually overlook him, 2) He is great against southpaws and getting a nice park boost with this game in Wrigley Field and 3) LHP Jon Lester is known to allow solo home runs. All we need is just one good swing of the bat and we will be grinning from ear-to-ear! Jordy Mercer (SS) – $2,300 is also an option if he is hitting in the top six for the Pirates.
Steven Moya (OF) – DET at KCR – $2,500 – Rookie Steven Moya had 28 extra base hits in 205 at bats in the minors this season before getting called up. He has tremendous power, but has yet to connect in his time with the big club. He is a fine punt option on Saturday and will help us work in some of the premium pitching options.
Javier Baez (3B/SS) – CHC vs PIT – $3,800 – Some gamers may blink at this price point for Baez; however, that works in our favor as he has had good power against left-handed pitching over the last two plus seasons with a .343 wOBA and a .200 ISO. He is fine as a stand-alone play or as part of a Cubs mini-stack.
Brett Wallace (1B/3B) – SDP vs WAS – $2,200 – This is an all-or-nothing play with Wallace as he is very home run dependent for his fantasy production. Fortunately, RHP Max Scherzer is second in the league with 17 home runs allowed and with the expensive pitching tonight, I would not even be adverse to using Wallace on a lineup with Scherzer since he’ll likely allow a home run and Wallace is one of the more likely candidates on the Padres to get it.