This MLB Targets will cover this evening’s games. Any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72. Let’s do this!
Scott Kazmir – LAD vs. MIL – $8,500 -The total is at 7.5 and Kaz is a -164 favorite, putting the implied MIL total at a slate low 3.3 runs. Kaz had some HR troubles early on this season, giving up almost 2 HR/9 IP, but has calmed way down since then, with a 0.7 HR/9 IP rate over his last 5 starts (28 IP). Milwaukee will take pitches, but they whiff, too, at 23% against LHP and 26% on the road.
Tanner Roark – WAS @ SD – $10,300 – Roark has a solid 3.50 SIERA and the Padres are so bad against RHP that it’s fine to roster the very vanilla Roark for over $10K. San Diego registers a 24.2 K rate and dead last .278/75 wOBA/wRC+ stats against RHP. This game has SD at an implied 3.3 runs, which makes Roark a solid cash play here.
J.A. Happ – TOR @ PHL – $7,300 – Super reasonable pricing for a solid LHP going against PHI, who has a puny .105 ISO against LHP and strikes out lefties 24% of the time. Happ has been OK this season and is average, wOBA wise, against even RH bats, so against PHI, that’s good enough.
Hanley Ramirez (1B) – BOS vs. BAL – $4,000 – Besides Hanley, the rest of the top of the Red Sox lineup is $4.9K or more tonight, being the heavy favorites (-150) in the highest scoring games of the night (10.5 as of this writing), leaving the Sox with nearly a six run implied team total. Ramirez has improved recently against RHP, with an .830 OPS over his last 20 AB’s vs. RHP at-bats.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM vs. PIT – $4,500 – Top of the lineup masher, with a 137 expected power over his last 100 at-bats and a .386 wOBA/.270 ISO against RHP.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. BAL – $5,600 – With the value bats today and lower $$ pitching, get a hitter like Ortiz into your lineup tonight. Papi is still excellent, and having a terrific swan song season.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET @ KC – $5,200 – Tourney play here as the venue and price will depress ownership, but JDM is back in the power swing, with a blazing hot 244 expected power over the last five games and a .421 wOBA/.336 ISO vs. LHP this season.
Manny Machado (3B/SS) – BAL @ BOS – $4,800 – Lashing out at LHP this season, with a 1.024 OPS for the year and an improved .351 wOBA/.191 ISO as well. Baltimore has the 4.9 end of the really high game total with Boston.
Daniel Murphy (2B) – WAS @ SD – $5,000 – Coming back strong with a 151 expected power over his last 30 at-bats and going after SD SP Johnson (.385 wOBA vs. LH bats) with a .391 wOBA/.241 ISO against RHP and the Nationals with an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. (OF) – BOS vs. BAL – $5,300 – The hitting streak is over but the hitting is not, with a whopper of a 322 expected power over his last 20 at-bats and .392 wOBA/.290 ISO against RHP this season. Will be lower owned due to high price.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ BOS – $4,500 – BOS SP Rodriguez has a .330 wOBA vs. LH bats and Davis a .331 wOBA against LHP against the backdrop of the 10.5-run game total tonight.
Trayce Thompson (OF) – LAD vs. MIL – $3,600 – Solid middle of the lineup power here, with a .372 wOBA/.229 ISO against RHP and MIL SP Guerra with an average .310 wOBA against RH bats.
Tommy Joseph (1B) – PHL vs. TOR – $3,500 – A one-off in Philly, Joseph has displayed prodigious power this season, with a 179 expected power over his last 85 at-bats. He has incredible vs. LHP splits, with a .515 wOBA/.316 ISO and an 1.155 OPS this season.
Lorenzo Cain (OF) – KC vs. DET – $2,700 – Tourney upside at $2.7K, Cain has a decent .337 wOBA against RHP and DET SP Verlander is softer on RH bats. Additionally, it should be excellent hitting weather out there. Would help you get to some higher end BOS bats without giving up the upside to win tourneys.
Whit Merrifield (2B/OF) – KC vs. DET – $3,300 – Merrifield has been on top of the power game, with a 177 expected power over his last 34 at-bats and a 131 overall. Despite Verlander for DET, there is still an implied 4-run total for the Royals.
Justin Turner (3B) – LAD vs. MIL – $3,600 – Rolling lately, with a massive 276 expected power over his last 25 at-bats and 177 over his previous 95 ABs. The Dodgers have a solid 4.3 run implied total tonight as well.
Sal Perez (CATCH) – KC vs. DET – $3,400 – Royals prices are down because of DET SP Verlander, but Perez has been raking well, with a 262 expected power (100 is average) over his past five games and 182 over his previous 21 games.