WATCH: PITCHER TO CONSIDER – CHRIS SALE
Tonight’s seven-game main slate has an exceptionally expensive starting pitcher in a great spot AND Coors Field bats. Your decision starts there. Remember that the best place for last-minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there, @RyNoonan… Let’ dig in.
Chris Sale – BOS vs. PHI – $14,100 – There’s no doubt that this is a great spot for arguably the game’s top pitcher so far in 2017, but can you get away with using 28% of your budget on him? I think you can. His strikeout upside is unmatched, and I think you want that safety in cash games.
Other Options – Jordan Montgomery ($8,600)
Justin Verlander – DET vs. TB – $7,600 – Justin Verlander hasn’t been particularly sharp of late, but $7,600 is just too cheap to ignore on this slate. The Rays have been one of the league’s best clubs against right-handed pitching this season, entering play with a 121 wRC+, but their 25.4% K-rate is still something that we need to exploit in DFS. If Verlander can keep the walks down, he’ll return value tonight.
Alex Avila – DET vs. TB – $4,100 – Alex Avila is one of the only Tigers’ bats that’s not priced down, but he’s hitting the ball so well right now I’m willing to pay this price. Penciled into the 2-hole against right-handed pitching, Avila enters play on Thursday with a .411 wOBA against RHP and his hard-contact rate and exit velocity over the past two weeks make this price feel like a bargain.
Other Options – Buster Posey ($4,800), Salvador Perez ($3,800)
UPDATE: Cameron Rupp is not in the Phillies’ lineup tonight against the Red Sox.
Cameron Rupp – PHI vs. BOS – $2,400 – Looking for some equity against Chris Sale? Here it is. Cameron Rupp is dirt cheap but has huge power upside against left-handed pitching.
Other Options – Rene Rivera ($2,300)
Brandon Belt – SFG vs. COL – $4,500 – The Giants will benefit from the league’s largest park shift, going from San Francisco to Colorado. I think you’ll have to choose between Sale and these bats, but I expect Belt will be quite popular tonight against Jeff Hoffman.
Other Options – Ian Desmond ($4,300)
Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. TB – $3,400 – I’m not sure why one of the game’s best bats is just $3,400, but he is, so you have to consider him. He’s a cash game lock at this price in my opinion.
Daniel Murphy – WAS vs. NYM – $4,700 – Daniel Murphy and his Nationals’ teammates are likely going to be under-owned tournament options tonight. If folks are spending up on bats, they’ll likely target Giants and Rockies so take a look at Murphy and the Nats in GPPs.
Other Options – DJ Lemahieu ($4,600)
Wilmer Flores – NYM vs. WAS – $2,900 – Death, taxes and Wilmer Flores against lefties. If you’ve followed this mantra over the past couple days you’ve been a bit disappointed, but trust the #math. Dating back to the start of 2015, Flores has a .325 ISO against left-handed pitching. Yes, ISO, not wOBA. That’s a huge number for a guy under $3,000.
Other Options – Chad Pinder ($3,100)
Nolan Arenado – COL vs. SFG – $5,400 – The best player on the team with the slate’s largest implied-team total with the platoon advantage? Yes. Yes, I will. He’s a no-brainer against Matt Moore, and you’ll need some exposure to him in cash games.
Jedd Gyorko – STL vs. MIL – $3,500 – The results have cooled for Jedd Gyorko over the past two weeks, but the batted ball data looks the same which is encouraging. He’s been a fairly consistent bat regardless of the handedness of his opponent, so if you’re looking to fade Nolan Arenado the Cardinals’ cleanup hitter is worth a look.
Other Options – Ryon Healy ($3,600)
Trea Turner – WAS vs. NYM – $5,500 – A great tournament spot for the overpriced Trea Turner. A reverse split hitter against what appears to be a reverse split pitcher in Gsellman, Turner will be off the radar for most tonight at his $5,500 price tag, but his ability to hit for power and run keep him in play on every slate.
Other Options – Xander Bogaerts ($4,700)
Trevor Story – COL vs. San Francisco Giants – $3,700 – The majority of ownership at shortstop could be soaked up by Trevor Story and Brandon Crawford tonight. I’m leaning towards Story, who’s significantly better against LHP than he is RHP, and Brandon Crawford has been pretty bad of late.
Other Options – Brandon Crawford ($3,500)
J.D. Martinez – DET vs. TB – $4,400 – Are you willing to fade a player who’s hard-hit rate is 65% over the past two weeks? I can’t do it. J.D. Martinez has been a viable option over the past few weeks with a price tag above $5,000, so getting him at a discounted rate with his current form is just too good to pass up on.
Other Options – Yoenis Cespedes ($4,400), Cameron Maybin ($4,700)
Dennard Span – SFG vs. COL – $3,800 – Dennard Span is penciled into the leadoff spot tonight in Coors, and he’s under $4,000. He could be popular in cash games if he’s locked into that spot in the lineup, and rightfully so.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.