We have an interesting set of games today with pitching options that are going to leave the a lot of games scratching their heads. Let’s see what we can do to find a path to glory!
Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs MIL – $13,800 – Mad-Bum is definitely the top pitching option today and the Giants are 2.5-to-1 favorites to grab the win which will equal four DraftKings points. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the current Brew Crew batsmen have a 92 wRC+ and this season it is a 93 wRC+ which means they are scoring approximately 7% less efficiently than the league average against left-handed pitching. The price point is the one negative for utilizing Bumgarner as we will have to allocate a sizable chunk of our salary cap his way.
Drew Pomeranz – SDP vs MIA – $10,400 – The Marlins are a middle-of-the-pack offense against left-handed pitching from a scoring perspective this season; however, they have the tenth highest strikeout rate at 22.7% and even better they are not patient with the fifth lowest walk rate at 6.6% which bodes well for Pomeranz since walks are usually his downfall.
Jake Odorizzi – TBR vs SEA – $8,200 – This is a very interesting matchup as the Mariners actually have been a top five offense against right-handed pitching by most metrics this season. On the flipside, Odorizzi typically has a major edge when facing hitters for the first few times (this is why we see him struggle against the other American League East teams, but excel against other infrequent opponents). Current Mariners only have 64 total at bats against him with a miniscule .203/.235/.297 slash line with four extra base hits and a 23.4% strikeout rate. This highlights Odorizzi as a fine tournament option.
Brandon Finnegan – CIN at ATL – $8,100 – Yikes, this was not a route that I had expected to take; however, looking into the numbers and with our other available options, I have actually gotten comfortable with Finnegan as an SP2 option. There is a big difference between comfortable and confident when we consider the futility of the Braves hitters against left-handed pitching this season: 58 wRC+ which means they are scoring 42% less efficiently than the league average against southpaws, a 23.6% strikeout rate which is the ninth highest in the league and essentially no power with six home runs in 618 at bats (think about that, one home run every 100 at bats against lefties).
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs NYM – $5,500 – CarGo is certainly priced appropriately for this matchup with the Rockies at home in Coors Field for a two game series with the New York Yankees. After a tepid start to the season, Gonzalez has been seemingly unstoppable and this is a great matchup with RHP Nathan Eovaldi. Over his last two-plus seasons, Carlos has a lofty .392 wOBA and a .280 ISO in lefty/righty matchups.
Ben Zobrist (2B) – CHC at WAS – $4,300 – The Zorilla has been excellent this season, particularly when hitting from the right-side of the plate. This is a great matchup against LHP Gio Gonzalez, who has allowed 21 earned runs over his last four starts spanning 22.2 innings along with five home runs. On a positive note, he has fanned 31 hitters during that stretch, but all signs point to Zobrist having the upper hand.
Danny Valencia (3B) – OAK vs TEX – $4,000 – Monday against a weak Ranger lefty, Valencia had a lofty $4,500 price tag. Tuesday, against another marginal southpaw we get a $500 discount. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, Valencia has a .388 wOBA and a .200 ISO in right/left matchups. Enjoy!
Dexter Fowler (OF) – CHC at WAS – $4,400 – Leading off for a very powerful offense on the road, we should see the switch-hitting Fowler have an increased chance for five at bats. He is excellent against lefties and is at a very favorable price point on Tuesday.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL at BOS – $4,500 – Trumbo leads the Major League with 20 home runs so far this season. For his career, Trumbo is 8 for 22 against LHP David Price with two doubles and two home runs. He has tournament winning upside every time he takes the field, and on the season he has four multi-home run games.
Trevor Story (SS) – COL vs NYY – $5,000 – If we want the deluxe upgrade at the shortstop position on Tuesday, it will be no surprise that Trevor Story is the recommendation. Over his last 180 at bats, he has an eye-popping .300 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Daniel Murphy (2B) – WAS vs CHC – $4,100 – Murphy has been playing at a near MVP-level this season with a .369 batting average, a 1.018 OPS, but he still is at a very reasonable price point for his lefty/righty matchup with RHP John Lackey. Lackey has been dramatically outperforming his peripheral statistics against hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate with a 2.73 ERA over his last 45 starts, yet with a 4.54 xFIP that is nearly two runs higher. Teammate and reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper – $4,400 is also deserving of a long look, but we need to remember that manager Joe Maddon is not afraid to walk these guys if there is an open base.
Joey Votto (1B) – CIN at ATL – $3,900 – While Votto is content to take a walk, he still has pop in his bat and RHP Julio Teheran has really struggled with opposite-handed hitters over his last 46 starts allowing a .370 wOBA and a 1.80 HR/9 rate.
Dae-Ho Lee (1B) – SEA at TBR – $2,900 – Dae-Ho Lee has been a nice acquisition this season for the Mariners and he already has ten home runs, including four against right-handed pitching in just 44 at bats. If he is in the lineup, he is a tremendous discount dandy that will allow for a lot of flexibility when populating the rest of your roster.
Denard Span (OF) – SFG vs MIL – $3,500 – Span has a nice matchup tonight against RHP Matt Garza who was just activated from the 60-day disabled list and will be making his first start this season after getting injured at the end of spring training this year. If Span can get on board, he has nice stolen base upside against Garza and Jonathan Lucroy.
Jake Smolinski (OF) – OAK vs TEX – $2,900 – Small sample size alert, but Smolinski does have a .403 wOBA and a .270 ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 125 plate appearances. He will likely be hitting towards the bottom of the order, but he does have cheap home run upside.
Robinson Chirinos (CATCH) – TEX at OAK – $3,000 – With LHP Rich Hill on the disabled list, the Athletics have brought fellow lefty Eric Surkamp back from the Nashville Sounds where he had been sent yet again at the beginning of the month. Chirinos should be in the lineup and he has been solid against left-handed pitching with a .356 wOBA and a .240 ISO since the beginning of 2014.
Javier Baez (SS/3B) – CHC at WAS – $3,400 – Baez is a nice discount option that we can use at shortstop or the hot corner on Tuesday in a nice matchup with the implosion-prone LHP Gio Gonzalez. Baez has pop in his bat and is capable of a home run in any park against left-handed pitching.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – CLE at KCR – $3,900 – Kipnis gets a fine lefty/righty matchup against RHP Chris Young who leads the league with 17 home runs allowed through just eight starts. Teammate Tyler Naquin – $3,300 is also an interesting play as he has shown nice power since being elevated to The Show. Through 93 at bats he has a .312 average with three doubles, two triples and four home runs and enough plate discipline for a .870 OPS.