Happy Monday! A ten-game slate awaits us tonight where the pitching selections are, once again- challenging. Let’s find our studs and values and get right to it!
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Max Scherzer – WAS vs. CHC – $12,200 – No great matchup by any means against the Cubs, who are sixth against RHP this season, but they still whiff over 20% of the time against RHP and Max has the best K rate of all starters on the slate (30.5%).
Zack Greinke – ARI vs. LAD – $11,200 – Greinke is in a better spot, matchup wise then Max, despite a worse park. Still, the Dodgers are 24th against RHP and Greinke has a stellar .212/.244 wOBA split against LH/RH bats.
R.A. Dickey – TOR vs. PHL – $7,400 – Oy, the values are more like hold your nose options today, but Dickey is at home (where he has a .274 wOBA) against the Phillies, who are 28th against RHP and 28th on the road in wOBA. The Phillies are also tied for the fourth fewest implied runs on the slate.
Matt Cain – SF vs. MIL – $6,500 – Seems like he should be cheaper, given his wOBA struggles, but the Brewers are more toothless away from Miller Park, with a 26th wOBA rank on the road, with a 26% K-rate.
Joey Votto (1B) – CIN @ ATL – $4,500 – The weather in Atlanta will be conducive for offense and the Reds will get Aaron Blair to have some fun with. Votto has a .405/.218 wOBA/ISO split and an expected power of 200 over his last 105 at-bats (100 is average).
Jay Bruce (OF) – CIN @ ATL – $4,900 – Continuing with the theme, the Reds/Braves game is a nine run total and has gone up a half run since it opened. Bruce, always streaky, is on a run right now, with 188 expected power of his last 103 at-bats and a .285 ISO against RHP.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. PHL – $3,900 – Love to target LH bats against PHI SP Eickhoff, who has a .338 wOBA against such bats, and to do it in the Rogers Centre is especially tasty, especially when Saunders has a .371 wOBA against RHP and has a 248 expected power over the past two weeks.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. PHL – $3,900 – Bautista has his own positive split against RHP, with a .389/.296 wOBA/ISO number.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. PHL – $4,400 – The Jays are just too affordable not to list here. Donaldson has a .375/.251 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and will be right in the middle of offense.
Kole Calhoun (OF) – LAA vs. MIN – $4,300 – Sneaky game of the night with a nine run total that opened at 8.5. Calhoun has been strong lately, with a 164 expected power over his last 110 at-bats and MIN SP Nolasco has given up 1.35 HR/9 IP.
David Peralta (OF) – ARI vs. LAD – $4,000 – Peralta faces LAD SP Bolsinger, who has a .356 wOBA against LH bats and Peralta has a .403 wOBA advantage over RHP himself. They are in Chase Field, which helps Peralta.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. CHC – $4,500 – He’s about to pop out of his semi-slump and Kyle Hendricks has a .346 wOBA struggle against LH bats. Harper maintains a .438 wOBA and .293 ISO against RHP.
Jefry Marte (1B/3B) – LAA vs. MIN – $2,300 – Marte, who has been ripping the ball with an expected power rating of 221 over his last 35 at-bats, is really underpriced here, especially considering he’ll be in the middle of the Angels lineup.
Danny Espinosa (SS) – WAS vs. CHC – $3,200 – The only reason he’s still inexpensive is that he’s still batting eighth, but the power has lingered for over a month now (223 expected power over 95 at-bats, 8 HR) and he has the positive matchup against Hendricks.
Carlos Santana (1B) – CLE @ KC – $3,600 – KC SP Volquez is alright, but Santana has a scathing hot 244 expected power over his last 27 at-bats and the Indians are expected to put some runs on the board tonight.
Robbie Grossman (OF) – MIN @ LAA – $3,300 – The Twins side has some juice tonight, drawing Jered Weaver as their opposing SP, who has a .328/.341 wOBA against RH/LH bats. Grossman hasn’t cooled off since becoming a fixture in the Twins lineup, with a .437/.330 wOBA/ISO split against RHP.
Byung Ho Park (1B) – MIN @ LAA – $3,600 – Weaver gives up nearly 1.7 HR/9 IP and Park maintains a very hard hit/expected power rating with a massive 256 power rating over his last two weeks of games.
Justin Smoak (1B) – TOR vs. PHL – $3,100 – The last of my Jays for the night, Smoak has a .212 ISO against RHP and a solid 130 expected power over his last 30 days overall. Batting in the middle of all the Jays studs means he’ll be in a good spot to accrue fantasy points tonight.