It’s Friday and there is a full on 15-game slate waiting for us, complete with a 5.5 run total featuring two aces, a Coors game with a 12 run total and everything in between. Plenty of studs and values to look at, so let’s get to it!
Clayton Kershaw – LAD @ SF – $13,900 – He’s the highest priced, but there are two others close to him, with Cueto at $13.1K and Strasburg just $400 lower at $13.5K. Being that none of the pitchers on the slate are even close to Kershaw’s combination of SIERA (estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate) of 2.15, strikeout to walk (31.1) and that the game is an incredible 5.5 run total with Kershaw getting a -155 advantage, he’s a must on the top tier.
Lance McCullers – HOU @ TB – $10,500 – With everybody’s head turned toward the big aces, McCullers is going to sneak into Tampa and take advantage of a Rays team that strikes out 25% of the time against RHP and 26% of the time at home. McCullers has a 13% swinging strike rate and a massive 12 K/9 IP rate. The game is a modest 7.5 and HOU is favored.
Junior Guerra – MIL vs. NYM – $7,100 – Look, pay up for your pitching tonight. Alright, Guerra has been top 25 in the past 30 days in K% among qualified starters, so there’s that. The Mets have been a whiffy mess lately, with 26.5% K rate over the last 14 days and they have K rates of 24.6 and 24.1 on the road and vs. RHP respectively.
Hector Santiago – LAA vs. CLE – $5,900 – Cleveland struggles on the road, with a .286 wOBA and 23.9% K rate there. Santiago is a slight dog against Corey Kluber, but CLE is also in the bottom ten against LHP in wOBA, and strikes out 22% of the time against LHP as well.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS @ MIN – $5,500 – Papi is the best and worth every dollar of this salary for his .456/.385 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and matchup against MIN SP Duffey, who has a .370 wOBA this season against LH bats.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. BAL – $4,200 – Donaldson hits RHP for a .379 wOBA and .253 ISO and BAL SP Gausman has a .367 wOBA split against RH bats. At $4.2K, Donaldson will be really well owned.
Mike Trout (OF) – LAA vs. CLE – $4,200 – That’s maybe too much respect to give CLE SP Kluber that Trout would be down at $4.2K. Trout is one of the best and he has been making very hard contact, with a 151/142 expected power/hard hit split over the last week.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. PHL – $4,600 – The Nats disappointed Thursday, which is good for Friday, where we can take advantage of both Harper’s .442 wOBA against RHP and PHL SP Hellickson’s .372 wOBA against LH bats.
Trevor Story (SS) – COL vs. SD – Could put the whole Colorado lineup in here, but I’ll focus on Story. He has a strong 177 expected power over the last 30 days and SD SP Cashner has given up a .411 wOBA to RH bats this season.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA @ ARI – His 128 MPH double play ball last night was a reminder that he’s close to breaking out. His contact rate is sinking faster than a DeAndre Jordan free throw percentage, but he’s been pretty unfortunate on the balls in play (21% over the last 30 days) and that will change soon.
“Castellanos has been one of the most consistent power hitters in the MLB this season”
Nick Castellanos (3B) – DET @ NYY – $4,400 – Castellanos has been one of the most consistent power hitters in the MLB this season, with a 173 expected power for the season and a .400/.302 wOBA/ISO split against LHP this season.
Edwin Encarnación (1B) – TOR vs. BAL – $4,000 – Encarnacion goes against BAL SP Gausman, who has a .367 wOBA split against RH bats. For his own part, Encarnacion has a .390/.263 wOBA/ISO split.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL @ TOR – $3,700 – Machado is a .412/.274 WOBA/ISO hitter against RHP this season, and even though the matchup against Estrada looks tough, the Orioles are still expected to score just over four runs.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ BAL – $3,900 – Bautista has a .386/.291 wOBA/ISO split against RHP, and BAL SP Gausman has that .367 wOBA against RH bats.
“Gutierrez is almost an auto-play against LHP…“
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA vs. TEX – $2,900 – Gutierrez is almost an auto-play against LHP, with a .398/.262 wOBA/ISO split and the Mariners are implied to score over four runs against TEX.
Welington Castillo (CATCH) – ARI vs. MIA – $3,700 – Castillo has a strong .401/.306 wOBA/ISO split and has MIA SP Nicolino, who has a .338 wOBA against RH bats.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ TOR – $3,400 – TOR SP Marco Estrada has been very, very tough on all hitters, wOBA-wise, but $3.4K is too low for Davis against a RHP, where he has a .428/.355 wOBA/ISO split.