The MLB Targets will be covering the nine-game, 7:07 EST slate, with games in Coors, Texas and Toronto, so let’s find our studs and values and get right to it! Any questions, please feel free to reach out to me @JasonWalker_72 on Twitter.
Drew Pomeranz – SD @ LAD – $11,700 – Pomeranz has a 12% swinging strike rate and a 10+ K/9 rate this season that has remained pretty consistent. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have struggled against LHP as a team, registering ahead of only Atlanta and Philadelphia in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. The total is a low seven runs, so I like him in this spot.
Rich Hill – OAK @ HOU – $11,400 – Strikeouts matter, and Hill, who has a 10+ K/9 rate and an 11% swinging strike rate, has the Astros, who strike out 24% of the time against LHP. Hill has a miniscule .369 HR/9 IP rate, thanks to a 50% GB rate and all those Ks. Another projected low run total in Houston at only eight, Hill is a great option.
Jason Hammel – CHC vs. ATL – $7,400 – Braves continue to be one of the weakest hitting teams in the league, with a .112 ISO against RHP this season and even though it seems like they are doing better, they are still 29th in wOBA and wRC+ in the last 14 days. Hammel hasn’t been great, but solid (4.12 SIERA, 7.2 K/9), which might be all that’s needed against ATL.
Doug Fister – HOU vs. OAK, $6,600 – If the above three don’t resonate, and you’re in need of a sub $7K starter, then fire up Fister. He can tap 20 DK points, especially against an OAK crew that ranks fifth worst in wRC+ against RHP and fourth worst in wOBA.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. NYM – $4,700 – .417 wOBA/.263 ISO split against RHP this season, 39% hard contact rate over last two weeks, signs of life recently with 116 expected power over past week. Colon with 36% hard contact over last couple of starts and giving up over a homer per game.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN @ TEX – $4,700 – A huge 10.5 projected run total in Texas tonight and Sano, in 20 post injury at-bats, has an expected power of 167. Sano has hit righties well this season, with a .367 wOBA and .254 ISO. He’s also posted a 45% hard hit rating since his return.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA @ KC – $4,700 – 41% hard contact rate against LHP and Danny Duffy gives up 34% hard contact to RH bats himself. .447 wOBA against LHP for Cruz and .324 ISO makes him a terrific one-off play here.
. . . he has a 64 pct hard contact rate in 42 at-bats at home vs. LHP
Trevor Story (SS) – COL vs. PHL – $5,100 – Story is in Coors, where he has a 64% hard contact rate in 42 at-bats at home vs. LHP this season. PHI SP Morgan gives up 39% hard contact to RH bats as well.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. DET – $4,800 – 9.5 run total in the Rogers Centre tonight, and Encarnacion has a 53% hard contact rating over past two weeks and a .415/.294 wOBA/ISO against RHP this season.
Willson Contreras (C/OF) – CHC vs. ATL – $4,300 – .447/.368 wOBA/ISO combination so far this season against RHP and a 40% hard contact rate over past two weeks. He’s batting middle of the lineup against an inexperienced SP in Wrigley.
Ryan Raburn (OF) – COL vs. PHL – $3,900 – Coors, obv, but the splits are hot, too. Raburn has a 36% hard contact rate for the year, and a .394 wOBA/.261 ISO against LHP while PHL SP Morgan has a 39.4 hard contact rate against RH bats.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET @ TOR – $3,800 – Miggy has a .401 wOBA against RHP and Drew Hutchison allows a .396 wOBA to RH batters with a hard contact rate of 34%. Plus, the game is a 9.5 total right now and fairly split down the middle, leaving the Tigers with an implied run total of 4.7.
Nick Castellanos (3B) – DET @ TOR, $3,600 – Gets the same great split against TOR SP Hutchison and has all the power needed to take advantage of Rogers Centre, with a 190 expected power (100 is average) over his last week of games.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA @ KC – $3,500 – vs. LHP play, with a .401 wOBA and .285 ISO this season. As stated above with Cruz, Duffy does offer a .339 wOBA to RH bats and 34% hard contact to righties as well.
Matt Kemp (OF) – SD @ LAD – $3,500 – Very reasonable tourney punt play since he’s in a favored spot against a LHP where he’s a .438 wOBA/.333 ISO hitter this season and 37% hard hit total as well.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM @ WAS – $3,500 – 45% hard contact over his last 13 games, 127 expected power over the past week and the Mets with a solid 4.2 run implied total tonight.
He’s tourney only, as he’s been average in hard contact and expected power this season . . .
Justin Upton (OF) – DET @ TOR – $2,800 – Split against Hutchison (.396 vs. RH bats), check. Sub $3K starter in a 9.5 run total. Check. He’s tourney only, as he’s been average in hard contact and expected power, but the cost is too good for tourneys.
Steven Moya (OF) – DET @ TOR – $2,900 – One last Tiger from this game, Moya is too cheap and with his 56% hard contact rate over his last six games, he’s a good target against Hutchison, who also rolls a .328 wOBA against LH bats as well.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.