Today’s targets will focus on the seven-game slate tonight, which features some top end pitching to go along with some interesting offensive options as well. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. STL – $13,400 – At first, I wasn’t going to go here because he’s not going to exceed value at this salary against the Cardinals (who are top three against RHP this season). But the Cardinals don’t have Matt Carpenter, and Jose is pitching at home which brings him right back here. You’re buying his 38% K-rate at home, 46% K rate at home against RH bats (Diaz, Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty), his 2.18 xFIP at home and 1.80 xFIP/.201 wOBA at home against RH bats.
Aaron Nola – PHL @ ATL – $8,400 – You have to look past the stats that Nola has posted over his last four starts, include his massive 7.85 ERA. However his SIERA in those starts was 3.17, indicating just how unlucky he was. A 10.2 K/9 against a 2.0 BB/9 shows his command in those starts and the Braves, while better recently, are still bad including below average against the curveball, of which Nola is top 10 in pitch value in the league.
Michael Wacha – STL vs. MIA – $6,500 – You won’t make me like these value SPs, as I will pay up tonight, but here they are anyway, starting with Wacha who has a meh 4.04 SIERA over his last five starts, including an 8.5 K/9 rate. Miami is slightly below average in wOBA and wRC+ against RHP, and drops to fourth worst in those categories at home. Their ISO, despite the presence of Giancarlo Stanton, is fourth worst both at home and against RHP as well.
Matthew Wisler – ATL vs. PHL – $5,600 – The Phillies are still below average against RHP and on the road, with between a 21 and 22 percent K-rate there as well. Wisler, while having a 4.31 SIERA in his last five starts, also has a 13% swinging strike rate in those starts and a solid 8.9 K/9 as well.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF) – MIN vs. BAL – $4,300 – The Twins are right up there with the Rangers and Orioles for top implied run total, all of which are over five runs. Sano is in the middle of the Twins lineup with a 48% hard contact rate over the last two weeks while BAL SP Jimenez carries a .407 wOBA on the road vs. RH bats.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ MIN – $4,100 – Davis has struggled recently, but has a strong 182 expected power over the last 30 days and a near 50% fly ball rate. This works well against MIN SP Gibson, who has a 50% GB rate and a .331 wOBA against LH bats at home.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX vs. KC – $4,000 – With great hitting weather and a high implied run total for the Rangers tonight against KC SP Ventura, who has a .330 wOBA against LH bats, Mazara should be in the top three for the Rangers.
Dustin Pedroia (2B) – BOS @ LAA – $4,200 – Red Sox aren’t the high total for a change, but still have a 4.9 implied total. LAA SP Weaver gives up 38% hard contact to RH bats and Pedroia has a .367 wOBA against RHP.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA vs. STL – $4,200 – Stanton has a 44% hard contact rate at home and it’s 40% against RHP at home. STL SP Wacha has a higher GB rate against RH bats on the road (48%), making it a solid matchup for the 41% fly ball hitting Stanton.
Manny Machado (3B/SS) – BAL @ MIN – $4,400 – Machado has a solid .392 wOBA against RHP and the Orioles have an implied run total of five runs, with Machado likely batting third against MIN SP Gibson.
Rougned Odor (2B) – TEX vs. KC – $4,600 – Odor should bat fifth in the potent Rangers lineup tonight implied to score 5.1 run tonight against KC SP Ventura. Odor has a solid 128 expected power over his last five games and .331 wOBA at home.
Travis Shaw (3B/1B) – BOS @ LAA – $4,200 – Lower cost access to the Red Sox tonight and Shaw has been bouncing back, power-wise, with an expected power of 159 over his last 60 at-bats and a 38% hard hit rating against RHP on the road.
Freddie Freeman (1B) – ATL vs. PHL – $3,600 – Freeman is the one bat in the Atlanta lineup that causes consistent issues for opposing pitchers, with his .366 wOBA and .236 ISO against RHP and 42% hard contact over the last two weeks.
Jurickson Profar (2B/3B) – TEX vs. KC – $3,700 – Low cost entry into the high total Rangers and Profar should be batting leadoff with his .377 wOBA against RHP, .398 at home against RHP.
Joey Gallo (3B/OF) – TEX vs. KC – $3,300 – Classic boom/bust tourney play with Gallo, who in 38 plate appearances at home vs. RHP in his career has the following stats: .477 wOBA, .484 ISO, 204 wRC+ and 53% hard contact.
Ryan Howard (1B) – PHL @ ATL – $3,100 – Along the same lines as Gallo is Howard, who has a massive 328 expected power (100 is average) over the last week and 174 over the last month. Howard faces ATL SP Wisler, who gives up 39% hard contact to LH bats and a .344 wOBA overall.
Kendrys Morales (1B) – KC @ TEX – $3,500 – There’s talk of Morales cooling off after being hot, but consider that he has a 228 expected power over his last 22 at-bats and has a .375 wOBA against LHP. TEX SP Hamels has given up a .388 wOBA against RH bats at home and 4.66 xFIP in the same.
Salvador Perez (CATCH) – KC @ TEX – $2,900 – Middle of the order catcher with solid expected power (128 this season) and the same advantages as Morales against TEX SP Hamels above for under 3K.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.