Today’s targets will focus on the 11-game slate tonight, which features some hot fun in Texas tonight and games in Fenway and Miller Park. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jake Arrieta – CHC @ CWS – $12,400 – Arrieta has struggled with control over the last month, but seemed to right the ship during his last start, where he had only one walk and 26.5 DK points. The White Sox are in the bottom five against RHP this season and have the third lowest implied run total of the night.
Noah Syndergaard – NYM vs. STL – $11,100 – The K-upside is here in Noah, who has a 30.5% K-rate this season. The Cardinals have been more wiffy lately, with a 21.5% K-rate over their last two weeks of play and they have the lowest implied run total of the slate at 2.9.
Dallas Keuchel – HOU vs. NYY – $8,000 – Dallas will be popular tonight given the Yankees weak hitting against LHP this season (fourth worst in wRC+, third worst in ISO). Keuchel has been solid in his last two starts, yielding only 24% hard contact.
Ian Kennedy – KC vs. LAA – $7,300 – Kennedy gives up hard contact, but in his home park Kennedy has a 3.84 xFIP and .297 wOBA, where his fly ball hard contact can die in the gloves of his outfield. The Angels don’t add much to dissuade me, with a fifth-worst ISO against RHP.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. COL – $4,700 – Trumbo is almost always underowned for his production and has a tasty matchup tonight against COL SP de la Rosa (5.34 SIERA over last five starts). Trumbo has a .287 ISO against LHP and 41% hard contact at home, and de la Rosa offers 37% hard contact away from Coors.
Marcus Semien (SS) – OAK @ TEX – $4,800 – Another player that will likely be low owned but has a great matchup against TEX LHP Perez. Semien has a .419 wOBA and .307 ISO against LHP this season and Perez has a .338 wOBA split against RH bats.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF) – CHC @ CWS – $4,700 – CWS SP Gonzalez is a bit of a mirage, meaning he’s seems a bigger gas can than he really is, but the Cubs still have a five run total tonight and Bryant has a .396 wOBA/.256 ISO against RHP this season.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARI @ MIL – $4,700 – The Diamondbacks have a nice matchup in MIL tonight and have a strong reverse splits edge facing MIL SP Anderson, who allows a .361 wOBA to RH bats. Miller Park is also the third best HR park for RH bats.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. SD – $4,700 – Toronto has a six run implied total and Encarnacion is my favorite against SD SP Rea, who allows a .333 wOBA to RH bats. Edwin has a .421 wOBA and .311 ISO against RHP this season.
Rougned Odor (2B) – TEX vs. OAK – $4,300 – Odor should be batting in the middle of a lineup that is projected to be high scoring, against a pitcher (OAK SP Mengden) that has a .354 wOBA against LH bats.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. AZ – $3,800 – Carter makes 44% hard contact against RHP at home this season, and has a .341 ISO in that split as well.
Jake Smolinski (OF) – OAK @ TEX – $4,600 – 43% hard contact vs. LHP, in a high scoring game in hot, hot Texas tonight, Smolinski has a .455 wOBA/.325 ISO against LHP this season.
Jurickson Profar (2B/3B) – TEX vs. OAK – $3,800 – Leading off vs. RHP, the Rangers have a 5.8 implied run total and he’s delivered 41% hard contact over his last seven games.
Welington Castillo (CATCH) – ARI @ MIL – $2,900 – There are a number of low-priced catching options tonight, too many to list here, but I’ll make Welington the cream of the crop due to the park (Miller) and MIL SP Anderson’s .361 wOBA allowed against RH bats.
Kendrys Morales (1B/OF) – KC vs. LAA – $3,400 – Few hitters are making power contact like Morales, who has a massive 267 expected power (100 is average) over his last five games and 50% hard contact in his last eight. LAA SP Hector Santiago has given up almost 1.8 HR/9 IP this season and 37% hard contact against RH bats.
Adam Jones (OF) – BAL vs. COL – $3,600 – Not as great against LHP then RHP, but this is too good of a matchup (see Trumbo above for de la Rosa splits) and the Orioles have a 5.4 implied run total tonight.
Albert Pujols (1B) – LAA @ KC – $3,800 – KC SP Kennedy does give up the long ball, at a 1.77 HR/9 IP clip, and Pujols has the history against him, with three home runs in 10 at-bats against the RHP.
Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B) – SD @ TOR – $3,200 – I like TOR SP Sanchez tonight, but if someone in SD is going to get him it’s Schimpf, who has a 220 expected power for the season (100 is average), 46% hard contact for the season and a 60% fly ball rate, perfect for a matchup against an extreme GB SP like Sanchez.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.