Today’s targets will focus on the seven-game slate tonight, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with some sneaky offensive matchups and a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Adam Wainwright – STL vs. SD – $10,400 – It’s good to have Waino back in our good graces, and it comes from a run of solid performances, resulting in a seven innings per start over five games, 3.44 SIERA, 11% swinging strike rate, 7.8 K/9 stretch that has steading his personal pitching ship. Toss in the Padres, who are better but still second to last in wRC+ and wOBA against RHP, and it’s a safe spot on a weak SP slate tonight.
Steven Wright – BOS vs. MIN – $9,300 – Things have slowed a bit for Wright, who has seen his SIERA go up to 4.32 over his last five starts, but there are three things to like tonight. One is that he pitches deeper into games than most, averaging 6 2/3 IP per start this season, two is that the Twins are 22nd in wOBA against RHP, with a 22% K rate and three is that there is a nice breeze blowing directly into Wright’s face tonight, which will give the knuckleball more resistance and better action tonight. Could be interesting here.
Sonny Gray – OAK vs. TB – $6,100 – Gray’s averaged six innings per start over his last five starts and has a decent-for-the-slate 4.23 SIERA over that span as well. He’s at home and the weather is the worst of any game on the slate for hitting, helping Gray’s cause as well as Tampa’s 24.4% K rate against RHP.
Francisco Liriano – PIT vs. MIL – $6,800 – Oy. Liriano is here because, if he pulls his stuff together, he can rack up the Ks against the Brewers 23.5% K rate against LHP. He’s tourney only, because you likely won’t swing at what’s nowhere near the zone, and Liriano’s control is a shaky as ever. But he’s at home, which helps him, and the price is right if you want to chase the very little upside on tonight’s slate.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. ATL – $5,300 – Gonzalez has a .464 wOBA this season at home vs. RHP and a massive 178 wRC+ in that split as well. ATL SP Foltynewicz gives up 39% hard contact vs. LH bats away from home this season as well.
Charlie Blackmon (OF) – COL vs. ATL – $5,100 – Same matchup as CarGo above, Blackmon has a hard contact rate of 41% at home against RHP and a .389 wOBA at home overall.
Ryan Braun (OF) – MIL @ PIT – $4,300 – Braun makes hard contact against LHP at a 36% rate and a .433 wOBA split against southpaws as well.
Todd Frazier (3B) – CWS vs. DET – $4,100 – The White Sox have an implied run total of 5.5 runs and Frazier has a 136 expected power rate (100 is average) over his last 100 at-bats and a strong 47% fly ball rate.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET @ CWS – $4,400 – Detroit is also implied to score five runs tonight against Chicago and Cabrera is reasonably priced in the middle of the lineup, with a .388 wOBA against RHP this season to take advantage.
Andrew McCutchen (OF) – PIT vs. MIL – $4,300 – MIL SP Garza has been bad against all batters, giving up hard contact at a 38% rate against RH bats and the Pirates have an implied run total of 5.3 tonight. McCutchen has increased his hard contact recently, at 57% over his last five games.
Miguel Sano (OF/3B) – MIN @ BOS – $4,000 – Sano has a 159 expected power rating over his last 60 at-bats and has a solid .353 wOBA and .231 ISO against RHP this season.
DJ Lemahieu (2B) – COL vs. ATL – $4,100 – DJ has a .433 wOBA and a 158 wRC+ against RHP at home this season and gets to face ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has a .337 wOBA against RH bats and DJ should be batting second in this lineup tonight.
Victor Martinez (1B) – DET @ CWS – $3,500 – Martinez is rocking RHP for 44.2% hard contact away from home this season. CWS SP Shields also struggles against LH bats, giving up a .353 wOBA against them.
A.J. Pierzynski (CATCH) ATL @ COL – $3,200 – Cheap catching option in Coors Field, and AJP has been making hard contact lately, with a 137 expected power over his last 50 at-bats and a 187 mark in his last three games.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL vs. SD – $3,500 – SD SP Cashner has offered a .368 wOBA against LH bats this season, the weather is hot in STL and Adams has a 154 expected power over his last 54 at-bats.
Justin Upton (OF) – DET @ CWS – $3,500 – CWS SP Shields has given up 38% hard contact to RH bats this season and Upton’s salary and 57% hard contact over the past seven games will make him a popular option tonight.
Tommy Pham (OF) – STL vs. SD – $3,600 – Pham has a 71% hard contact rate over his last four games and has a .406 wOBA and .291 ISO split vs. RHP this season.
Matt Kemp (OF) – SD @ STL – $2,900 – If you’re not going to roster the likely Most Popular Pitcher tonight in Adam Wainwright, then you can make some space for Matt Kemp in that tourney lineup. Kemp has a 160 expected power in his last 100 at-bats and a 258 over his last five games, which includes a 1133 OPS vs. RHP.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.